Archive for Braves

It is fashionable to ridicule a fantasy owner for panicking in April. It’s early, they say. Something about small sample size, they say.

Yet here I am in late May — which is pretty much June to the common antiestablishmentarian — watching y’all sit stoically with your coveted, probably somewhat expensive shares of Matt Kemp (96% owned in Yahoo! leagues) and Carlos Gonzalez (94%) as they flounder in the batter’s box. That was condescending, yes, but I know I benefit from the luxury of not facing such painful decisions (nor enduring the mighty struggles of once-established sluggers).

I recently discussed CarGo and Kemp here and here, respectively. Unless you can get a decent return on name value from someone who thinks he’s buying low, it may be time to cut bait. I’m here to remind you: it’s OK to let go, to start anew. It’s just hard sometimes, I know. I’m here to help you transition.

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Episode 87

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris preview the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 100 min of joyous analysis, & excuse the barking dog about 90 minutes in.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

Consider this a bit of a twist on what usually appears in this space. Rather than a player who is outproducing his expected value, today we have a player who is being rapidly added in leagues where he will probably cease to provide the kind of value for which his new owners are hoping. Especially in light of reports that Chris Johnson wouldn’t lose playing time now that Freddie Freeman has returned off the disabled list at the expense of former platoon-mate Juan Francisco, there seems to be a sense that he’s worth rostering in nearly 100 percent of leagues; in the last seven days, Johnson has been added in over 72 percent of ESPN leagues and the only reason he isn’t atop the Yahoo! trends is because he’s already owned in a majority of leagues at this point. While Johnson may well have more value than it appeared he would on draft day, he’s unlikely to finish as one of the 10-12 best third basemen this season.

The obvious red flag with Johnson is his .468 BABIP, which is so ripe for regression it has almost spoiled on the tree. Since 1995, just two players have finished a qualifying season with a BABIP over .400: Manny Ramirez, who had a .403 mark in 2000, and Jose Hernandez, who managed just a .288 batting average despite a .404 BABIP in 2002. So yes, regression is coming, but expecting Johnson to slide all the way down to .300 is probably a mistake for a couple of reasons. Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup mysteriously focuses on the Braves and Rockies.

–  The Braves have finally decided that Tyler Pastornicky is their shortstop, at least for the 2012. Pastornicky is what some would call a “contact machine,” but he doesn’t have much in the way of power production. Pastornicky has put up decent SB numbers in the minors, but don’t expect him to swipe more than, say, 20 bags while hitting in the eighth hole.

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Today’s Roto Riteup is going to focus on left fielders. Because it does, that’s why.

–  The Blue Jays have made a decision about their LF opening, and the job has been handed over to Eric Thames. Thames wasn’t a hyped prospect, but he’s shown power in Double-A, Triple-A, and the major leagues. Thames strikeout rate is a bit concerning, but he can be a good outfielder for you if you are willing to play him against only right-handed pitching.

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After a down season in his sophomore year in the majors in 2007, Brian McCann bounced back last year to be in the top four among catchers in AVG, HR, RBI and Runs. The projection systems predict McCann essentially to repeat his 2008 performance this year and the mock drafting crowd agrees, making McCann the second-rated catcher with an ADP of 46, three spots behind Russell Martin.

McCann had nothing fluky in his profile last year. He hit equally well at home and on the road, versus LHP and RHP and both before and after the All-Star break. He posted the highest BB% of his brief career, and checked in with a 10.1 percent walk rate. His K% dropped over two full points to 12.6 percent and his BABIP was a normal .308 for the season.

With McCann the question is not so much where he rates among players at his position, he clearly ranks among the top catchers in the game, but rather when to draft catchers. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, McCann turned in a $13.94 season last year. That placed 64th among hitters in mixed leagues. Add the top pitchers to the pool and does it make sense to spend a fourth-round pick on McCann?

Yes it does.

One of the challenging things to incorporate into projections is position scarcity. Last year Mauer was the top catcher with a $14.89 value. There were 12 first basemen with higher dollar values. Mauer’s $14.89 was worth more than Derrek Lee’s $15.96, much like how a run in the Astrodome in 1968 was worth more than two runs in Coors Field in 1996.

Yet somehow it is easier to wrap our heads around the idea of park factors and run environments than it is to understand position scarcity. Perhaps this is because when we attempt to calculate position scarcity, we have to not only compare how each player at a position does versus his direct peers, but also how that rates with all of the players in MLB.

Catchers are undervalued by their raw stats. The next time you participate in a mock draft, try drafting a catcher in the first three-to-five rounds, if you do not normally do this. And then examine the impact on your team and see if you are better off with McCann as your catcher than with Yadier Molina or whomever you normally get in the 20th round, even though you passed on an impact hitter like Nick Markakis or Jason Bay.

Properly calculating position scarcity is beyond the scope of this piece. It is one of the most valuable things at pay sites ranging from FantasyPros911.com to BaseballHQ to The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa. But position scarcity is real and it makes McCann a good value at his current ADP.

It was shaping up as a disappointing season for Kelly Johnson in 2008 until a strong September. After three straight months of hitting .250 or less, Johnson posted a 22-game hitting streak in the season’s final month, which led to a .398/.429/.643 line over his final 106 plate appearances. That final surge rescued his overall numbers and his fantasy season and he finished as a top 10 second baseman.

But should a .450 BABIP in September cloud our judgment on what happened the other five months of the season?

The biggest thing about Johnson’s year was the collapse of his walk rate. Seemingly taking a page out of Jeff Francoeur’s book, Johnson swung at 7.6 percent more pitches in 2008 than the previous year and most of those were pitches outside the zone. His O-Swing % jumped from 18.4 percent to 25.6 percent. And that led to his BB% dropping from 13.2 to 8.7 percent.

So, even though Johnson added 11 points to his batting average, his on-base percentage fell 26 points – no easy task. His ISO also dropped 21 points. Interestingly, he saw his K% actually fall despite swinging at more bad pitches. But if we look at Francoeur, we notice the same pattern unfolding during his career in Atlanta.

Also like Francouer, Johnson has seen his HR/FB rates fall. The more aggressive Johnson posted a 7.6 HR/FB% in 2008, a rate which matched his IFFB%.

The saving grace for Johnson was his LD%. He finished tied for fifth in the majors with a 24.7 percent line drive rate. Not surprisingly, that helped Johnson to a .344 BABIP, the 16th-best mark in the majors.

Both Bill James and Marcel predict a rebound year for Johnson in 2009. Both projection systems see him getting his BB% back into double digits with subsequent increases in both his OBP and SLG.

There is certainly reason for optimism surrounding Johnson coming into 2009. The hot September and the season-long line drive rates are two positive markers. But the combination of the falling walk rate combined with the uptick in swinging at pitches outside the zone is just too much to ignore.

There was a big drop-off in production from second basemen after Johnson and Placido Polanco, who each returned over $11 in 2008. After those two the next most valuable at the position was Kaz Matsui, at a little over $5. Given the uncertainty over Johnson’s performance – do you really want to count on another month with a .450 BABIP? – bidding a double-digit salary seems a very risky move.

Is it better to be lucky or good? Annual injuries aside, Chipper Jones was both of these things in 2008 as he batted over .400 for the first two-and-a-half months of the season. How was he lucky? He was second in the majors with a .388 BABIP, which was 65 points higher than his career average. How was he good? His 17.0 percent BB% was the highest mark of his career since 1999 while his 13.9 percent K% was his lowest since 2000.

Ahh, but those injuries. Last year he missed time due to the following ailments: back spasms, quadriceps, eye, left hamstring, stomach virus, allergies, knee, back and shoulder. It was the fourth time in five years that Jones failed to reach 500 at-bats in a season.

Injuries and age have robbed him of his speed and some of his power. No longer is Jones a threat to steal 20 bases or hit 35 home runs. But three of his top five seasons for AVG have come since 2006, including last year’s monster .364 season. This combination makes Jones one of the tougher players to properly value in a fantasy draft.

In 2006, Jones was the 43rd-best fantasy hitter, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. In 2007 he was the 15th best. Yet due to injury concerns, Jones had an ADP in the mid-60s last year, meaning he was a sixth-round pick in a standard 12-team mixed league.

Both the Bill James and the Marcel projection for Jones show similar results. They both expect him to match last year’s production in HR, RBI and R but suffer a 45-50 point drop in AVG. Those two forecast systems are projecting Jones to be roughly the fantasy player he was in 2006.

So, if Jones was a sixth-round pick one year after delivering second-round production, where will he fall after a season in which he delivered fourth-round value? It’s hard to imagine Jones being drafted earlier in 2009 than he was in 2008 in competitive leagues. If it is the eighth round and Jones is still available, you have to consider pulling the trigger. Just make sure to draft a competent backup on the late rounds because you know you will be playing him more than most reserves.

In his first full season in the majors, Jair Jurrjens put up a very solid season for the Braves. He led the team in wins (13), innings (188.1) and strikeouts (139). Acquired as one of the two prospects in the Edgar Renteria deal, Jurrjens made it a slam dunk for Atlanta, despite what many Braves fans thought at the time. They sold high on Renteria, saved nearly $9 million in payroll last year alone, opened the way for a better player at the position in Yunel Escobar and got a potential #2 starting pitcher.

Jurrjens has a lot of positives, starting out with the fact that he throws a sinking fastball in the low 90s that piles up ground balls. His 1.94 GB/FB ratio was tied for sixth in the majors. Jurrjens also found himself among the leaders in HR/9, as his rate of 0.54 placed fifth, and HR/FB, where he placed 12th with a 7.1 percent mark.

After throwing 142.2, 141 and 143.1 innings in the previous three years, Jurrjens exceeded the 30-inning jump considered dangerous for pitchers under the age of 25 with his output last year. And he did fade somewhat down the stretch, as he threw just two quality starts in his final seven outings and posted a 5.84 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP in that stretch.

But there are reasons to remain optimistic about Jurrjens, too. His FIP (3.59) was actually lower than his real ERA (3.68), his BABIP was .311 and his road ERA (3.32) was nearly 0.75 points lower than his home ERA (4.05), a very unusual split for a young pitcher in a neutral park. There’s also room for improvement in his walk rate. Jurrjens allowed 2.20 BB/9 in his final two seasons in the minors and had a 3.35 rate last year with Atlanta.

Jurrjens was a top-75 pitcher last year. If you subscribe to the 30-inning theory, you’ll want to avoid him next season, since any type of drop in his rate numbers will make him not worth using. But I love the power sinker and I expect Jurrjens to improve his WHIP and remain a good bet to post a nice $5-7 dollar season.