We’ve spent so much time on these Would You Rathers with respect to keeper leagues that it’s time we threw some out for those that re-draft each year. Taking long term benefits out of the way, which player would you rather draft this season — Yoenis Cespedes or Bryce Harper?
Let’s face it — when the A’s acquired Kila Ka’aihue from the Royals on Tuesday, they simply added another mediocre Major League hopeful who crushes it in Triple-A but will probably never get it on the big league level to an already disastrous first base situation. Ever since Jason Giambi jumped ship for the big bucks and bright lights of New York in 2002, the first base situation for the A’s has been a relative mess. Sure, Nick Swisher brought some productivity to the position when he was moved in from the outfield back in 2006, but you can add Ka’aihue’s name to a shameful list that includes such greats as Scott Hatteberg, Eric Karros, Erubiel Durazo, Dan Johnson, and Daric Barton. You can throw in a post-steroidal Giambi and a way-past-his-prime Nomar to the mix as well if you like as well. How the A’s end up mixing in Ka’aihue into the 1B/DH mix will ultimately be decided next spring, but fantasy owners are already speculating the potential ugliness for the A’s in 2012.
– Unofficial crowdsourcing question: Will Dan Uggla be overvalued next season because of his hitting streak, or will he be undervalued because of his extremely slow start? You may not say he will be valued appropriately, because we all know that never happens.
Welcome to another game of Keeper League Would You Rather. While first base is widely considered the deepest position in fantasy baseball, it is also has a high percentage of players protected, given the fact that most of your mashers are found here. Still, dynasty leagues, AL or NL-only, and deeper mixed leagues have numerous owners looking for cheaper alternatives at the position with the hopes that an inexpensive youngster will eventually provide big time power at a bargain rate. So let’s look at two of the more popular options from the youth bin…
Since we’re over halfway through the fantasy season, most owners have a pretty good idea what categories they can make a push for points in during these next couple of months. With that in mind, here are a few players that can help you in specific categories if you give them the chance.
Jeff Keppinger: Batting Average
One of the few trade chips the Astros have at their disposal, Keppinger has hit better than the magical .300 mark this year after hitting .288 last season. Keppinger’s ability to make contact is absolutely ridiculous at the moment, as he is one of three players with at least 150 plate appearances to post a SwStr% below 2%. I don’t know if he’ll be able to hit .300 all season long, but odds are he’ll hit at least .285 for your team.
This is more of a Kicking Rocks sort of piece, but it’s Memorial Day Weekend, so let’s have some fun…
Perhaps the title is a bit inflammatory. In all likelihood, Russell Branyan has no idea who you are and couldn’t care less about who’s on your fantasy team or where you are in your standings. He’s just a guy out there trying to make a living playing a game that he loves. But in the spirit of being a mock GM and the need to release some of our angst and frustration with hopes of giving the bleeding ulcer a rest, we vent about players as if we’ve known them for years and that their negative performances are actually stemming from some sort of a personal attack. That being said, I would like to share my deep-seeded hate for the 35 year old Branyan and the fact that he does everything in his power to ruin my fantasy seasons. Read the rest of this entry »
The night before Opening Day makes me feel like an 8 year old kid on Christmas Eve, staring at a mountain of presents sitting under the tree waiting to be torn into the next morning. That one’s definitely an Xbox, those are the video games, and somewhere in that pile is definitely a new baseball glove. Then morning comes and with unbridled excitement I rush to the pile and start ripping paper with a fury like no other. Socks and underwear? A sweater? These aren’t video games, they’re books. And who the hell gives an 8 year old a stationery set and thank you cards? I got rolled on Christmas morning!!
Well, that’s what’s going on now for many of us as we look over our rosters that we were absolutely gushing over as recently as last week. Suddenly you see a bunch of red crosses next to the names, platoon situations are being discussed, and statuses are being changed from “active” to “minors”. I know that Opening Day is supposed to be a day filled with excitement and fresh starts, but now it just feels like the fantasy gods have come down and kicked me in the groin….twice. Here’s what I’m bitching about: Read the rest of this entry »
On Friday, Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson announced that Russell Branyan has made the club’s Opening Day roster. Branyan’s ultimate role has yet to be determined — his own physical limitations, Juan Miranda‘s presence on the roster and Xavier Nady’s arm strength could affect his playing time — but if you’re looking for cheap pop, Branyan is your man.
Right off the bat, I’ll tell you…bargain shopping for first basemen is a risky way of running your team. In fact, I don’t recommend it at all. Real success is found in the premier mashers, and I always recommend you draft at least one. But if your league uses a corner infielder and/or a DH/utility slot, then picking up a super cheap first baseman can turn into a very economical boost in offensive production. Read the rest of this entry »
The Nationals found their Adam Dunn replacement today, reportedly agreeing to a two-year deal with journeyman Adam LaRoche. Only 31, this will be his fifth team – so another new team for LaRoche and another Adam at first will make this transition seamless for both sides, right?
Er, not quite. Dunn had a lifetime ISO of .271 and a 16.3% career walk rate while LaRoche comes in at .216 and 9.2% in those two categories. That’s a lot of lost offense. It can be as obvious as looking at Dunn’s constant home run totals around 40, while LaRoche’s hover around 25. Old-school stats actually work in this case.
LaRoche has been passed around so often because, well, he’s so average. Since 2008, qualified first basemen have averaged a .219 ISO – LaRoche had a .216 ISO over that same time period. The same group of first basemen had a collective 21% strikeout rate. LaRoche has a 25% career strikeout rate. They walked 11.5% of the time, LaRoche 9.5% of the time. They averaged 25.9 home runs per season, LaRoche has hit exactly 25 in each of the last three seasons. LaRoche has had a 116 wRC+ over the last three years, which looks okay until you see that the average first baseman has had a 130 wRC+. In fact, since each part of the package is so close to average or just below, he hasn’t even been an average first baseman.
At 31, this isn’t likely to change, especially given LaRoche’s move from Arizona to Washington. Washington’s park has a 94 park factor for home runs by lefties, and a 108 factor for doubles. That seems fine, except that LaRoche played in a park that showed a 114 home run park factor and a 115 doubles factor for lefties last year… and showed the third-worst ISO of his career along with the second-worst batting average. The boost barely showed.
Doesn’t matter, we can pencil him in for a .270ish batting average and 25 home runs, right? After all, that describes most of his seasons despite the different home ballparks. Well, maybe, but the Nationals’ park will have the worst park factor for lefty home runs of all the parks he called home. 20 home runs is just as much a possibility as 25. If he pairs last seasons’ career-worst strikeout rate (30.7%) with a BABIP more in line with his career number (.330 last year, .315 career), he may have another year with a .260 batting average – or worse.
Now you’re looking at a possible .260/20 HR guy. In a recent set of projections, I had LaRoche around 30th, but that was before he signed with a team that could afford him regular at-bats, so the projection only had 416 at-bats. With 500+ at-bats, he could ‘zoom’ up the charts… to about 27th or so. Would you rather have LaRoche, or take a chance on someone like Brandon Allen or Matt LaPorta? Or, if you like veterans, LaRoche or Garret Jones or Luke Scott?
Looks like LaRoche is almost toast, in fantasy terms.