I’ll pick up on the prospect theme that Justin and Tom touched on in this week’s podcast: helium watch. In other words, here are a four somewhat under the radar prospects that have caught my eye this year that could have increasing value over the second half of the season and turn into real assets in the near future in Ottoneu (and other deep leagues).
If Pablo Sandoval’s shoulder injury, which cost him the entire 2016 season, didn’t put an unofficial end to his time with the Boston Red Sox, then the emergence of Travis Shaw very well may have. A player that was already set to supplant Sandoval at third base even before he went on the disabled list for the year, Shaw has experienced a quiet emergence for a rebounding Red Sox ballclub. As we begin to head into the final stretch of the month of May, he’s not only establishing himself as a quality starter at the position for the Red Sox, but is currently among the game’s best at the hot corner from a statistical standpoint. For now.
That was way more ominous than I may have meant for it to be. Nonetheless, we’re going to approach Travis Shaw with a sense of foreboding, as his regression would seem to be inevitable at this point.
I’ve been an admirer of Brock Holt for some time, and it probably goes beyond his last name. In reality, there is nary a super utility player in Major League Baseball that isn’t a source of my affection. He’s gained notoriety, at least locally, over the past couple of years thanks to his ability to play just about anywhere in the field, and provide a little bit of pop at the plate when he does. As such, the Boston Red Sox have continued to find increased at-bats for him, regardless of position, over the last calendar year. And it’s about time the fantasy world took note.
As an offensive (and subsequently a fantasy) performer, Brock Holt is here to stay. My colleague Scott Strandberg touched on Holt earlier this week, as he examined the hot starts at second base. He noted that Holt’s versatility, even in fantasy, can be a tremendous asset. That’s part of the beauty of Brock Holt. We can talk about him in relation to second basemen, third basemen, outfielders, and even at first and short depending on the medium on which your fantasy game is played.
Regardless of that medium, Brock Holt has maintained a grip on third base eligibility, which allows us to discuss him here. He’s played at third on four occasions already, though none have been starts. And our opinion on Brock Holt is this: buy this hot start. Sure, say what you want about six games and 26 plate appearances, but this isn’t some outlandish start that can’t be replicated as the season wears on. In reality, it’s a lot of what Holt has done over the course of the last two years.
Across 129 games last year, Holt slashed .280/.349/.379/.727. His ability to get on base was thanks, in part, to his approach at the plate. He maintained a 9.0% walk rate, good for 44th among qualifying position players across Major League Baseball. He ranked 18th among that same group in pitches per plate appearance, at 4.10. This year, he’s off to a start that has him at a 15.4% walk rate. Expect more of the same from him in his ability to reach base thanks to his approach.
His ability to reach base can also be attributed to a high rate of contact. Holt ranked 19th in the league among MLB position players in 2015, with an 86.5% overall contact rate. Not only did he make a lot of contact, but he made a lot of solid contact (no surprise due to his approach), with a linedrive rate that came in 26th among that group, at 23.8%.
Small sample size be damned, Holt has laid off of offspeed and breaking pitches considerably thus far. This is well-illustrated by the following from Brooks Baseball:
Again, minuscule sample size, but that could certainly bode well for him continuing to make that solid contact, if not improve it and make it consistently harder. Considering he’s coming out of a field of 141 qualifying players from 2015, his walk rate, contact rate, and LD% are all already very solid figures for a relatively disregarding superutility guy out of Boston.
Of course, those factors also tie in to his value as a fantasy player as well. Across almost exactly 1,000 plate appearances in the two years prior to this, Holt has posted BABIP figures of .349 and .350, respectively. Those may seem quite high, but that LD% certainly helps them to remain sustainable. In those two seasons, he’s hit .281 and .280, also respectively. With identical figures of 98 in regard to his wRC+, he’s been almost exactly what that statistic would define as average in the last two years. Not only is he an average offensive player, he’s an extremely consistent one, based off of his production in 2014 and 2015.
It’s that consistency that has us very easily buying Brock Holt’s start to the new season. Through those 26 plate appearances, he’s slashed .333/.462/.714/1.176. He’s already on pace to eclipse his career highs in homers, runs, and RBIs, while also striking out at a four percent decrease from last season. His increase in power could absolutely be attributed to a 35.3% hard hit rate, easily the highest mark of his career. Going back to the above graph from Brooks, a continuing trend like that could certainly play well into Holt’s favor. It remains to be seen, however, if that is a sustainable number. Given the approach, though, he could certainly look to make harder contact on a more regular basis. Of those figures, though, the high average and OBP, as well as even the decreased strikeout rate, are certainly believable, if not very possibly sustainable, figures based off of Holt’s past performance.
In a couple of very specific respects, Brock Holt is certainly a fantasy asset. He walks quite a bit and gets on base beyond that thanks to his ability to make contact. His fantasy arsenal also includes some swipes as well, with 20 steals combined over the last two years. Unfortunately for Holt, his RBI opportunities will be somewhat limited, as it’s tough to see him moving up too far past the seventh spot in a pretty potent Red Sox batting order. It’s particularly unfortunate, because Holt isn’t the type that is going to generate too much of his own offense, beyond getting on base.
And that’s the one real drawback of Brock Holt: a lack of power. His ISO in the last two seasons has featured figures of .100 and .099. With a pair of homers already this season, and an unsustainable .381 mark to date, perhaps we could see an uptick in his power this season, but we’ll need to see a larger sampling of his ABs before making that type of assessment. Nonetheless, an increase in power would certainly contribute to him becoming even more of a fantasy asset.
Even without that aspect of his game, though, Holt is still a reliable fantasy player, even in leagues that aren’t quite as deep. He provides value in his versatility, where he can be a plug-and-play type at at least three different spots, at minimum. He provides a steady on-base presence thanks to his ability to draw a walk and make regular, solid contact. There’s a speed factor there that can also be taken into account. These aspects make him valuable alone, even in a situation where RBI opportunities are limited for him.
If that power does actually increase, though, we’re talking about Brock Holt in an entirely different context, as an entirely different type of asset. Here’s hoping.
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen has a clear closer in Koji Uehara, but following him, there are some questions. Burke Badenhop, who led the Sox pen with 70.2 innings last season is currently a free agent and the club appears to be shopping the normally dependable Edward Mujica. Andrew Miller posted an incredible season in 2014 but he now pitches for the Yankees. There are holds to be had, but it is a question of distribution.
Closer
Koji Uehara
Setup
Junichi Tazawa
Edward Mujica
In the mix
Anthony Varvaro
Brandon Workman
Robbie Ross
Also rans
Alexi Ogando
Craig Breslow
Tom Layne
Heath Hembree
Drake Britton
With Jacoby Ellsbury immersed in the free agent frenzy, the Red Sox seem to be making plans for life in Boston without him. The latest rumors have them looking at Carlos Beltran for right field with Shane Victorino moving to center and Daniel Nava playing left. But the Sox are obviously kicking the tires on a few others and apparently, one thing helping them is Nava’s versatility. With his ability to play either corner position, the Sox can keep their options open and not limit themselves to just the short list of quality right fielders out there. But the real question here is, how do the Sox envision their outfield structure for 2014 and how exactly does Nava fit in? Read the rest of this entry »
Garin Cecchini is the owner of one of the prettiest swings in the minor leagues. Over the last year and a half the Red Sox third base prospect has begun to turn his considerable natural talents into production. Recently Keith Law of ESPN.com even ranked Cecchini among his updated top 25 prospects (subscription required). He’s long been a favorite of mine and he may soon be a favorite for your fantasy team.
I had seen both Tommy Joseph and Ryan Lavarnway before, but when I saw them play against each other on Tuesday the similarities between the two catching prospects were striking. Both are big, bat first catchers. Both strike out a lot. Both hit for a lot of power for backstops. Both have some question marks about their ability to catch every day in the big leagues. What can these guys do for your fantasy team and when?
Tommy Joseph, C, PHI
Red Sox outfield prospect Bryce Brentz made headlines recently when he accidentally shot himself in the leg while cleaning a gun. The injury wasn’t severe and he’s already returning to practice, but who knew cleaning a handgun could be as dangerous as standing in front of Robin Yount? Thankfully for dynasty owners “firearm handling” is not a category in most fantasy leagues. So what can Brentz do for your fantasy team?
The Breakdown
I was able to see Brentz a few times during the 2012 season. Defensively he is a prototypical corner outfielder and his strong arm makes right field a nice, cozy fit. The athleticism doesn’t stand out but he’s not a bad runner. The speed plays better in the outfield than it does on the base paths and his stolen base totals will likely be in the low single digits each season. As he ages his thick build does have the potential to become more of an issue and slow him down to some degree. I still expect Brentz is going to qualify in the outfield until he’s well into his 30’s.
This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.
This week: An injury to a Red Sox outfielder could open the door for a trio of intriguing youngsters with different skill sets; and the Rangers are considering an under-the-radar prospect for a backup role.
With news that the Boston Red Sox have signed longtime Atlanta back-up David Ross, now would certainly be an appropriate time to look down Zach Sanders’ Catcher End of Season Rankings, scroll down to number 12 and take a look at Jarrod Saltalamacchia. With a breakout year that saw him play a career-high 121 games and post career-best numbers in the primary fantasy categories, save for average and on-base percentage, the Red Sox now face some tough decisions. Do they keep Salty as their primary backstop and keep Ross in the reserve role to which he is accustomed or do they deal Salty away and make room for a potential catcher platoon with Ross and upstart Ryan Lavarnway? Read the rest of this entry »