Buying Brock Holt’s Hot Start

I’ve been an admirer of Brock Holt for some time, and it probably goes beyond his last name. In reality, there is nary a super utility player in Major League Baseball that isn’t a source of my affection. He’s gained notoriety, at least locally, over the past couple of years thanks to his ability to play just about anywhere in the field, and provide a little bit of pop at the plate when he does. As such, the Boston Red Sox have continued to find increased at-bats for him, regardless of position, over the last calendar year. And it’s about time the fantasy world took note.

As an offensive (and subsequently a fantasy) performer, Brock Holt is here to stay. My colleague Scott Strandberg touched on Holt earlier this week, as he examined the hot starts at second base. He noted that Holt’s versatility, even in fantasy, can be a tremendous asset. That’s part of the beauty of Brock Holt. We can talk about him in relation to second basemen, third basemen, outfielders, and even at first and short depending on the medium on which your fantasy game is played.

Regardless of that medium, Brock Holt has maintained a grip on third base eligibility, which allows us to discuss him here. He’s played at third on four occasions already, though none have been starts. And our opinion on Brock Holt is this: buy this hot start. Sure, say what you want about six games and 26 plate appearances, but this isn’t some outlandish start that can’t be replicated as the season wears on. In reality, it’s a lot of what Holt has done over the course of the last two years.

Across 129 games last year, Holt slashed .280/.349/.379/.727. His ability to get on base was thanks, in part, to his approach at the plate. He maintained a 9.0% walk rate, good for 44th among qualifying position players across Major League Baseball. He ranked 18th among that same group in pitches per plate appearance, at 4.10. This year, he’s off to a start that has him at a 15.4% walk rate. Expect more of the same from him in his ability to reach base thanks to his approach.

His ability to reach base can also be attributed to a high rate of contact. Holt ranked 19th in the league among MLB position players in 2015, with an 86.5% overall contact rate. Not only did he make a lot of contact, but he made a lot of solid contact (no surprise due to his approach), with a linedrive rate that came in 26th among that group, at 23.8%.

Small sample size be damned, Holt has laid off of offspeed and breaking pitches considerably thus far. This is well-illustrated by the following from Brooks Baseball:

Again, minuscule sample size, but that could certainly bode well for him continuing to make that solid contact, if not improve it and make it consistently harder. Considering he’s coming out of a field of 141 qualifying players from 2015, his walk rate, contact rate, and LD% are all already very solid figures for a relatively disregarding superutility guy out of Boston.

Of course, those factors also tie in to his value as a fantasy player as well. Across almost exactly 1,000 plate appearances in the two years prior to this, Holt has posted BABIP figures of .349 and .350, respectively. Those may seem quite high, but that LD% certainly helps them to remain sustainable. In those two seasons, he’s hit .281 and .280, also respectively. With identical figures of 98 in regard to his wRC+, he’s been almost exactly what that statistic would define as average in the last two years. Not only is he an average offensive player, he’s an extremely consistent one, based off of his production in 2014 and 2015.

It’s that consistency that has us very easily buying Brock Holt’s start to the new season. Through those 26 plate appearances, he’s slashed .333/.462/.714/1.176. He’s already on pace to eclipse his career highs in homers, runs, and RBIs, while also striking out at a four percent decrease from last season. His increase in power could absolutely be attributed to a 35.3% hard hit rate, easily the highest mark of his career. Going back to the above graph from Brooks, a continuing trend like that could certainly play well into Holt’s favor. It remains to be seen, however, if that is a sustainable number. Given the approach, though, he could certainly look to make harder contact on a more regular basis. Of those figures, though, the high average and OBP, as well as even the decreased strikeout rate, are certainly believable, if not very possibly sustainable, figures based off of Holt’s past performance.

In a couple of very specific respects, Brock Holt is certainly a fantasy asset. He walks quite a bit and gets on base beyond that thanks to his ability to make contact. His fantasy arsenal also includes some swipes as well, with 20 steals combined over the last two years. Unfortunately for Holt, his RBI opportunities will be somewhat limited, as it’s tough to see him moving up too far past the seventh spot in a pretty potent Red Sox batting order. It’s particularly unfortunate, because Holt isn’t the type that is going to generate too much of his own offense, beyond getting on base.

And that’s the one real drawback of Brock Holt: a lack of power. His ISO in the last two seasons has featured figures of .100 and .099. With a pair of homers already this season, and an unsustainable .381 mark to date, perhaps we could see an uptick in his power this season, but we’ll need to see a larger sampling of his ABs before making that type of assessment. Nonetheless, an increase in power would certainly contribute to him becoming even more of a fantasy asset.

Even without that aspect of his game, though, Holt is still a reliable fantasy player, even in leagues that aren’t quite as deep. He provides value in his versatility, where he can be a plug-and-play type at at least three different spots, at minimum. He provides a steady on-base presence thanks to his ability to draw a walk and make regular, solid contact. There’s a speed factor there that can also be taken into account. These aspects make him valuable alone, even in a situation where RBI opportunities are limited for him.

If that power does actually increase, though, we’re talking about Brock Holt in an entirely different context, as an entirely different type of asset. Here’s hoping.