It’s fairly likely this isn’t your first spin with fantasy baseball, so you are no doubt familiar with the fact that things go wrong. Despite all your preparation, your undivided attention to the prognosticators and the projection sheets, sometimes the bell rings and one or two of your top picks turn into moldy wet blankets. One of your sleeper picks never wakes. A can’t-miss rookie never arrives.
It happens. It’s part of the game.
The Kansas City Royals have been one of the most enigmatic teams in the last few years. Not because they’re small market or because they’ve been a perennial punching bag for the rest of the American League, but because expectations have been on the rise for some time now and they consistently fail to deliver. Once the worst farm system in baseball, the Royals were suddenly flush with all of this great, young talent. We saw the debuts of players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas and watched as they added key pieces like Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. They hadn’t quite put it all together over the last two seasons, but this year, with a revamped rotation, the Royals became darlings in the American League and some even thought they could compete for a wild card this year. But while James Shields and Jeremy Guthrie did their part early on, the hitters failed miserably. The young studs were a disaster and after a modest 14-10 April, things spun out of control as the Royals went 8-20 in May and opened June 1-2. Manager Ned Yost was at a loss. He shuffled the lineup dozens of times without success. They fired their hitting coach and replaced him with the legendary George Brett, hoping that some Royals royalty would jump start the offense. But instead, it was the nerds who got things going for the Royals. Yost put the lineup decision into the hands of the sabermetric boys and the next thing we knew, Kansas City was on a six-game winning streak. Read the rest of this entry »
Nothing better than a piping hot Country Breakfast, loaded with OPS and smothered and covered in rich, delicious stat lines, to help you win your fantasy championship…
After a breakout season in 2012, added position eligibility and arguably one of the best nicknames in baseball right now, Billy Butler is headed towards being one of the sexier picks in fantasy drafts next season. Batting .313 with 29 home runs and 107 RBI while amassing 20 games played at the position this past season, Butler is no longer just a DH and will garner some serious attention in the future. Though accidentally omitted in Zach Sanders’ End of Season First Base Rankings, Butler should be slotted sixth with a value of $19 and while that may not be enough to land him “elite status,” it certainly made him one of the better value picks at the position this past year. Read the rest of this entry »
Back in November I discussed bargain shopping in Houston and how there are still a few hidden gems that would make for strong selections at the tail end of your draft. Well, today, we’re going to look at another perennial cellar-dwelling team and see what kind of fantasy gold can be found. Funny thing, though, is that these Royals — these, more often than not, punching bags of the AL — are looking pretty darn good lately and there’s going to be quite the battle to obtain a number of their players’ services in fantasy drafts this year.
Indeed, I’ve gazed deeply into my crystal ball to present to you yet another set of RotoGraphs bold predictions for 2012. I eagerly anticipate your commentary wrath.
1. Dan Haren wins 20 games. He had pretty rotten run support in 2011 and the Angels did a little something in the off-season that might affect run production. Haren had nine no decisions in which he posted a 2.90 ERA, 0.952 WHIP and an 8.0 K/9. There were 11 games in which the Angels scored two or fewer runs in and Haren won just three of them — but he posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.769 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. Something’s gotta give, and I say he gets the better end of the wish bone in 2012.
As important as matchups are to Pick Six (for more, see last week’s strategy post), the most important aspect of the game is to pick players that are good values at their positions. Today, I’ll give a run down on some of the better (and poorer) values at the first two positions in Pick Six: Catcher and Corner Infield. The numbers I’ll report are projected Points per Plate Apperance (Pts/PA), based on a weighted average of Oliver and PECOTA projections (a bit more weight to Oliver, because it’s more current). YMMV depending on your preferred projection system, or your own adjustments to these systems. Also, keep in mind that prices change weekly, and so this just represents a snapshot look at player value and may be obsolete by next week!
Carlos Santana, $34.25, 1.42 Pts/PA
Brian McCann, $32.25, 1.37 Pts/PA
Buster Posey, $35.50, 1.33 Pts/PA
On Thursday, we rolled out our First Base rankings and while it’s commonly referred to as a deep position, the bottom isn’t necessarily never ending. There are some gentlemen on the list that you might want to dodge on draft day, unless of course the price is just too good. With that in mind, here are your preseason First Base Fallers:
Butler headlines this list primarily due to unmet expectations. Butler was being drafted in the 75-79 range in 2010 as he was a rising star but after disappointing in his power and run producing output, his ADP going into 2011 appears to be in the 85-92 range (unless you’re Yahoo! and his ADP is inexplicably 66). Many managers have lost a little patience with him despite his contributions in the batting average category. He’s certainly not a dud, as the kid only turns 25 in April and he’s actually got a solid resume to date plus the history of a pretty fantastic hitter in the minor leagues.
All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some first basemen.
Billy Butler
Butler continued to increase his walk rate while simultaneously cutting back on the K’s. The batting average is always there, but owners are still waiting for the power to come along. He’s only 24, so a power surge is still possible, but it’s probably going to take a slight adjustment in his swing, and that may not be worth the risk. Somewhere down the road, he has a 30 HR season or two in him, but how long are you willing to wait?
Crude 2011 Projection: .315/.395, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as he keeps churning out a high average, I’m willing to wait for more power.
Kendry Morales
Morales had a chance to duplicate his 2009 success until he snapped his leg like a twig. He’ll still be in his peak years when he returns, so the leg is likely the only thing to hold his value back.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.345, 28 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you got him in the fourth, he’s still worth it.
Matt LaPorta
It feels like I’ve been here before. You? For someone who’s supposed to be a great power hitter, LaPorta has a sub-.400 slugging percentage. The only good thing to come out of this year is his improved BB%, and a ton of MLB experience. He’s still only 25, so maybe he’s a late bloomer?
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.320, 16 HR
Verdict: Cut. Not looking like a stud, may never even be average.
Justin Smoak
He disappointed early this season, but Smoak has been on fire since he was recalled. He’s kept the strikeouts to a reasonable level, is working walks and is still hitting for power. Sure, it’s a small sample, but I like what I’m seeing right now.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. Too much potential to let him go.
Ike Davis
I’m not going to lie and say I saw this coming. Davis has been very good this year, and has gotten overlooked quite a bit. He has the Mets job going forward, and will be a big part in their rebuilding plan.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.365, 23 HR
Verdict: Keep. He may never be a superstar, but he’ll put up good numbers.
If you have a first basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.
Once again it’s time for the companion piece to the rankings post from Thursdays. We broke down the first basemen this week, and it seemed that the position was deep, with players like Billy Butler, ranked fourteenth on our list, still capable of putting up .280/30/100 years. There’s a lot of value to be found after the top first basemen are off the board.
But are there great options once the first 15 first basemen are gone? There’s definitely a steep increase in risk. Zach Sanders did a good job breaking down the risk versus reward for Chris Davis this week, and Davis’ power potential is definitely worth the lower draft cost in 2010. Russell Branyan offers a similar power upside, but with his career strikeout rate at almost 40% (38.9% career) he’s actually even riskier in the batting average department. It is worth noting that he’s significantly improved his strikeout rate in the past two years (31.8% and 34.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively), and if he holds on to that improvement, he could repeat his numbers from 2009.
Once you pass the whiff-or-bomb section of the rankings, it starts to look meager. People will be tempted to take James Loney earlier than they should, but he is a player that embodies the fallacy that all young players get better. Almost 1800 plate appearances into his career, though, we know what Loney is. He’s a line-drive-hitting (21.4% career) worm-burner (43.4% ground ball, 35.3% fly ball career) with below-average power (9% HR/FB career). Unless he gets lucky and has his career year, there’s no reason to think that Loney will do any better than hit .280+ with 15 or so home runs, and there are plenty of players that can do that and cost less in the draft.
Consider that you can probably get Lyle Overbay many rounds later, and Overbay is just as likely to hit .270 with 16 or so home runs. Don’t overpay for the ten points of batting average in this case, especially since Overbay’s declining batting average is actually easily managed – it is the result of declining splits. While Overbay used to be okay against lefties (.711 OPS career) he’s been terrible the last couple of years (.534 and .540 OPS versus southpaws the last two years). If you can manage Overbay daily, you can take advantage of his good split against right-handers (.847 OPS career) which was still strong the last two years (.905 in 2009, .865 in 2008). Provided that he ends up in a good position in real-life baseball, and that his fantasy owner finds a caddy for those days against lefties, Overbay makes a great late value pick.
Jorge Cantu is also an intriguing later-round value. Cantu proved that he is consistently inconsistent from year to year by following up a strong 2008 (.277, 29 home runs) with a year that looked completely different (.289, 16 home runs) in 2009. One thing that pops out in the numbers is that when his strikeout rate is high, his power his greater and his batting average is weaker. So, while it is great that he is walking more and striking out less as he ages, it makes predicting his power and batting average in 2010 difficult. Complicating the prediction process further is the fact that his team is unsettled and he is a candidate for a trade as he becomes more expensive. Bill James likes Cantu for .277 and 18 home runs next year (but with a few more strikeouts than in 2009), and, though seemingly rare with James’ projections, there is a chance for the player to outproduce those power numbers.
Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, and second basemen.)
Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place. Oh, another note: these rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.
It’s probable that Albert Pujols is a tier of his own. He is a true stud in every category when compared to his peers. But without the 15 or so steals, he might belong right along side the other two metronomes in Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, two young studs at the position who are virtual locks for a plus batting average 35+ home runs, and gobs of runs and RBI. There’s not much to say here other than, since this is a deep position, it’s worth considering comparable middle infielders over these guys – just look how long and balanced this list is.
The third tier has three players that could, in the right year, outperform guys in the second tier. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez have all had years with power production that has eclipsed that of the two players above them. But they also have their issues. Fielder alternates medium-power years with high-power years, Howard won’t ever put in a plus batting average with his high strikeout rates, and Gonzalez would be more exciting if only he could get his batting average out of the ‘neutral’ territory and into ‘plus’ like the guys in tier two. Maybe, when he walks fewer times with his next team as Dave Cameron seems to have predicted, his BABIP will also regress to his career levels and his batting average will rise, though it’s hard to predict anything more than a .280 number there.
The middle tier provides some real opportunity for value. Each and every member of this tier could easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and good run production next year. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Kendry Morales have all done it before, and Kevin Youkilis has gotten about as close as you can get. Joey Votto seems poised to join their ranks with a full year of strong play. It’s also a well balanced tier – the aging sluggers on their way down sit in front of Youkilis, who seems to have found his niche with a good batting average and modest power for a first baseman. Votto and Morales sit behind him until they prove they can consistently provide more power.
The next tier is called the ‘Dan Uggla‘ tier. These guys will give you power, but in rotisserie baseball you’ll also need to work hard to over come Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena’s poor batting averages. In head-to-head competition, their value increases because of the option of punting batting average, but in rotisserie you really need to try and compete in every category and their big minus signs are a dark cloud over the rest of their positive contributions.
The last tier could produce some tier-jumpers if the stars align. Should Derrek Lee continue to hit 45% of his balls in the air, he may jut hit another 30 home runs, which would put him in tier four. Billy Butler is still hitting too many worm-burners (47.7% groundballs career), but if can get a little lift into those balls, he’s shown that he’s a strong producer in batting average. At 30 years old, it seems that Adam LaRoche is a strong bet to continue producing at the same mediocre level going forward. He’ll probably drop off the list when a young guy steps forward next year and joins the crowd, but with the strikeout rates that Chris Davis (34.7% career) and Russell Branyan (38.9% career) sport, it’s hard to rely on them to even keep their jobs all year in 2010.