Archive for Astros

The last time we saw Ken Giles on the mound for the Astros, a Gary Sanchez three-run homer and Aaron Hicks single knocked him out of the game, and then he punched himself in the face. On Thursday night, it was Gleyber Torres who dealt the finishing blow to an Astro reliever’s save hopes.

With the Astros up on the Yankees, 5-3, heading into the top of the ninth inning, A.J. Hinch passed on giving Giles a chance at the save, even though his primary closer was available. Instead, he opted to go with Will Harris, who kicked off the inning by walking Neil Walker and then loaded the bases by allowing back-to-back singles. Brad Peacock was summoned to bail Harris out and get the save, but on his second pitch, Torres stroked a game-tying single into left field. Two batters later, Hicks scored on an Aaron Judge ground out.
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With managers relying more on relievers and less on starters last season, and with the emergence of fantasy-relevant non-closers like Chris Devenski, Chad Green and Archie Bradley, fantasy owners have been taking more interest in relievers who aren’t in line to get steady saves. Andrew Miller has long been on the fantasy radar, and he is currently owned in more than 60 percent of ESPN and CBS leagues. However, Bradley and Adam Ottavino are about as popular as some lower-end closers, as both are owned in more than one-third of the leagues on ESPN and CBS. Devenski, Green and Dellin Betances aren’t far behind in popularity.

On Thursday, the season reached its three-week mark, so we are not quite one-eighth through the schedule. In 2017, only five relievers exceeded 80 innings, but so far this season, there are already 43 relievers who have pitched at least 10 innings. Not everyone in this group will keep up this pace, and it’s not hard to imagine that some who stay on this pace will wear down and may even need some DL time.
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While many pondered the potential outcomes when deciding on taking Ken Giles in preseason drafts and auctions, Brad Peacock emerged as a popular target in the later rounds. In spite of his transition to the bullpen to start the year, Peacock’s 13 wins, 29.5 strikeout percentage and 161 strikeouts over 132 innings in 2017 made him an interesting pitcher to pair with Charlie Morton or an upside arm to deploy as a reliever with starting pitcher eligibility in leagues which use designations. After two strong innings on Wednesday, the Astros opted to leave Peacock in for three innings and the win rather than adhere to standard procedure by using their closer, Ken Giles to secure the last three outs against the Orioles.

There’s not reason for panic by Giles owners, yet at least, since leaving Peacock, while in a rhythm, translated into him retiring nine of the 11 hitters he faced. Peacock whiffed five of them, allowed two hits and issued zero walks. All told, Peacock threw 39 pitches in three innings generating 12 swinging strikes (30.8 swinging strike percentage in the appearance) and notching his, and Houston’s first save of the season. A.J. Hinch proved last postseason he would not be averse to using pitchers in roles outside the popular think box to close out games with Lance McCullers Jr. taking over high leverage last October. It’s a marathon of a season and Giles owners have reason to be upset, but it’s not time to panic, yet. Houston’s powerful offense could also cut into potential save chances as the year progresses, so Giles owners need to plan accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

Even with less than two weeks left in the season, it’s not too late for some closer turnover. Zach Britton is scheduled to get a stem cell injection in his left knee Thursday, and that will likely shelve him for the rest of the season. That probably means that Brad Brach will once again take over as the Orioles’ closer for the final nine games. The earned run that Brach allowed against the Red Sox on Tuesday was the first he had yielded in September, so he has rebounded from a difficult August. His control has been inconsistent, and that has contributed to a total of five walks in 10.1 innings this month (two of which came on Tuesday). A 64.3 percent ground ball rate has helped Brach to minimize the damage.

If you are thinking of adding a closer (or replacing Britton) for the home stretch, Brach should be sufficiently reliable. Then again, if you are in a 12-team mixed league, he is not necessarily the best option. Hector Neris, who converted his 17th straight save on Wednesday against the Dodgers, has not only been steady, but is a better option for strikeouts. As Ben Kaspick mentioned in the previous installment of the Bullpen Report, Alex Claudio was passed over for a save opportunity on Sunday, but he was back in his customary role on Tuesday, Claudio set the Mariners down in order, notching his ninth save of the season, and then he came back for a scoreless two-inning save on Wednesday.
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Episode 85
Jason Collette and Eno Sarris break down the fantasy futures of the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays. All of our audio issues have been corrected so thanks for your patience. No Hall of Fame talk here, so enjoy!

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. If you subscribe via iTunes, please consider giving us a review. We’re big boys, and we can handle critiques as well as compliments!

Approximately 67 min of joyous analysis.

“Argue your limitations, and they will be yours.” — Illusions, Richard Bach

How I wish I had learned that phrase back when I was playing Little League. Defensively, I was rock solid. I could turn the double play from the second base side with ease or I could sit behind the plate for nine innings and call a game with the best of them. Put me in the batter’s box though, and my ineptitude at the plate was depressingly laughable. But rather than work my tail off to become a better hitter, I simply accepted the fact that I was never going to work my way up to the clean-up spot and when the coach said that a walk was as good as a hit, I took it as gospel. The bat barely left my shoulder and I led my team in walks. Of course I took a few cuts from time to time and even found my way on-base via an actual hit, but overall, taking a pitch was my specialty. I was the original Robbie Grossman. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Carter (ESPN: 21.7 percent owned; Yahoo!: 23 percent owned)

In the minor leagues, he never had a full season OPS under .800, nor has he hit fewer than 10 home runs in a season, yet Chris Carter has also never played even half a season in the majors. His power is not really up for discussion; he has hit at every level, including the majors, but his ability to contribute beyond 25-30 home runs a season is what has kept him from getting a serious shot in the majors until this year.

The move to Houston in the offseason was good for Carter’s value in a couple ways. First, unlike Oakland, who has designs on competing for the AL West title again this year, the Astros have a greater incentive to see what he can do given a full year of playing time than they have to sit him if he hits an extended cold spell. Second, given that the vast majority of Carter’s value comes from his HR and RBI potential, heading from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors to a far more hitter-friendly one should be a boon for his value. Read the rest of this entry »

Justin Maxwell (ESPN: 37 percent owned; Yahoo!: 14 percent owned)

If Justin Maxwell were a pitcher instead of an outfielder, his career may have ended before it even really started. While rehabbing in the minors after undergoing Tommy John surgery after the 2010 season, the former 4th round pick torn his labrum diving for a ball in the outfield. It’s a tough enough pair of injuries for a position player to work though, but for a young pitcher, it would have been a far more difficult road back to the majors. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re getting down to that time of year where, unless you’re talking keeper league, it’s all about picking up the guy swinging the hot bat with a relative disregard for the long term.  If he keeps it up for a couple of weeks, then great, but no more worrying about small sample sizes or potential in the second half.  This is it.  So if you’re looking for some quick-fix help in your outfield, these guys just might fit the bill… Read the rest of this entry »

One of the most undervalued fantasy players year-in and year-out is Carlos Lee. Last year, Lee was on pace for one of his best seasons ever before a finger injury ended his season in early August. At the time, Lee was in the midst of a prolonged hot streak. In his final 243 plate appearances of the year, he had a .366/.432/.648 line with 16 HR and 54 RBIs in 216 at-bats.

On first glance, it looks like Lee has declined two straight years, with falling numbers in HR, R and SB. Because of this, the Marcel and Oliver projections are not kind to Lee. Fantasy players perhaps have similar notions, as Lee has an ADP of 27 according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central. That makes him the ninth-rated outfielder.

Earlier, I extolled the virtues of Mark Teixeira and noted how he had averaged a .298-35-120-100 fantasy line over the past four years. Well, Lee has a .294-32-112-85 line in that same time frame but also has averaged 12 SB per year. If Teixeira is properly valued at 13, does it not seem a little low for Lee to be at 27?

Throughout his career, Lee has been very durable. Last year’s finger injury was a freak accident and reports have him representing Panama in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Lee has seen no drop off in his hitting skills. He still does a good job with his plate discipline and his batted ball profile with a 21.2 percent line drive rate and a 43.6 percent fly ball rate last year stacks up nicely with his career numbers. Any fantasy player who gets Lee in the third round this year should be extremely happy.