Bullpen Report: April 20, 2018
With managers relying more on relievers and less on starters last season, and with the emergence of fantasy-relevant non-closers like Chris Devenski, Chad Green and Archie Bradley, fantasy owners have been taking more interest in relievers who aren’t in line to get steady saves. Andrew Miller has long been on the fantasy radar, and he is currently owned in more than 60 percent of ESPN and CBS leagues. However, Bradley and Adam Ottavino are about as popular as some lower-end closers, as both are owned in more than one-third of the leagues on ESPN and CBS. Devenski, Green and Dellin Betances aren’t far behind in popularity.
On Thursday, the season reached its three-week mark, so we are not quite one-eighth through the schedule. In 2017, only five relievers exceeded 80 innings, but so far this season, there are already 43 relievers who have pitched at least 10 innings. Not everyone in this group will keep up this pace, and it’s not hard to imagine that some who stay on this pace will wear down and may even need some DL time.
Though it represents an accelerated pace of innings, the relievers in the 10-plus innings club have still just pitched the rough equivalent of two starts, so all season-to-date stats can’t be taken with too much weight. Still, it’s worth noting that Jeurys Familia is the only one in the group who has yet to allow a run, and that Ottavino and Josh Hader have strikeout rates above 60 percent. Eddie Butler, Austin Pruitt, Adam Cimber and Jesse Chavez all have pitched at least 14 innings in relief already. While it seems unlikely they will stay on a pace to exceed 110 innings, a total of 90 innings at season’s end seems plausible.
Of these four relievers, the Padres’ Cimber has the lowest ERA (1.93), highest strikeout rate (34.6 percent) and lowest walk rate (5.8 percent). If he had these stats as a starter, he would certainly be drawing far more interest from fantasy owners. As it is, he is only owned in two percent of ESPN and CBS leagues. Given his 81 percent contact rate and modest K-rates in the minors, it seems unlikely that Cimber will continue to pile up strikeouts. However, the 27-year-old rookie has a long and consistent history of being a control artist, and his mid-80s sinker has been effective. Cimber just may be able to stay in the neighborhood of his current 60.0 percent ground ball rate.
Fantasy owners have not received much quantity — or quality — from Ken Giles through the first three weeks, and now he is dealing with a tight back. Giles did not get any work in during the Astros’ 9-2 over the Mariners on Thursday, marking the fifth straight game he was not used. He has been dealing with the tightness at least since Monday, and A.J. Hinch told reporters that he had been unavailable for the “last couple days” prior to Thursday’s game. Giles has just one save and two strikeouts over his five innings. While he said he could be available on Friday, it’s not a given that Giles will get the Astros’ next save opportunity. Devenski, who has one more save this season than Giles, is well-rested, and Brad Peacock’s appearance on Thursday was his first in five days.
Quick hits: Brandon Morrow, Aroldis Chapman and Brad Boxberger all notched saves on Thursday. None has yet to blow a save, and they have a dozen saves between them. However, Boxberger has half of those…Greg Holland pitched a scoreless seventh inning against the Cubs with the Cardinals trailing by three runs. He walked Tommy LaStella, which gave Holland his fourth appearance with at least one walk in five tries. He has thrown only 32.9 percent of his pitches in the strike zone this season…Sam Dyson’s appearance against the Diamondbacks on Thursday night was notable, and not just because he faced Jarrod Dyson for only the second time. Prior to this outing, Dyson had not averaged more than 93.2 mph on his fastball in any of his 2018 appearances, but on Thursday, his average fastball velocity shot up to 95.4 mph. Also, if you’re keeping track, Sam retired Jarrod on a groundout, lowering the latter Dyson’s batting average against him to .500.
| TM | Closer | First | Second | DL/Minors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Brad Boxberger | Archie Bradley | Yoshihisa Hirano | |
| ATL | Arodys Vizcaino | A.J. Minter | Dan Winkler | |
| BAL | Brad Brach | Darren O’Day | Mychal Givens | Zach Britton |
| BOS | Craig Kimbrel | Matt Barnes | Joe Kelly | |
| CHC | Brandon Morrow | Carl Edwards Jr. | Pedro Strop | |
| CWS | Joakim Soria | Nate Jones | Danny Farquhar | |
| CIN | Raisel Iglesias | Jared Hughes | Kevin Quackenbush | David Hernandez |
| CLE | Cody Allen | Andrew Miller | Zach McAllister | |
| COL | Wade Davis | Jake McGee | Adam Ottavino | |
| DET | Shane Greene | Joe Jimenez | Alex Wilson | |
| HOU | Ken Giles | Chris Devenski | Brad Peacock | |
| KC | Kelvin Herrera | Justin Grimm | Blaine Boyer | |
| LAA | Keynan Middleton | Blake Wood | Blake Parker | |
| LAD | Kenley Jansen | Josh Fields | Pedro Baez | |
| MIA | Brad Ziegler | Kyle Barraclough | Drew Steckenrider | |
| MIL | Matt Albers | Josh Hader | Jacob Barnes | Corey Knebel |
| MIN | Fernando Rodney | Addison Reed | Zach Duke | |
| NYM | Jeurys Familia | A.J. Ramos | Robert Gsellman | Anthony Swarzak |
| NYY | Aroldis Chapman | David Robertson | Dellin Betances | |
| OAK | Blake Treinen | Ryan Buchter | Chris Hatcher | |
| PHI | Hector Neris | Luis Garcia | Edubray Ramos | Pat Neshek |
| PIT | Felipe Vazquez | George Kontos | Michael Feliz | |
| STL | Bud Norris | Greg Holland | Jordan Hicks | |
| SD | Brad Hand | Craig Stammen | Phil Maton | Kirby Yates |
| SF | Hunter Strickland | Cory Gearrin | Tony Watson | Mark Melancon |
| SEA | Edwin Diaz | Juan Nicasio | Nick Vincent | |
| TB | Alex Colome | Sergio Romo | Jose Alvarado | |
| TEX | Keone Kela | Alex Claudio | Chris Martin | |
| TOR | Roberto Osuna | Ryan Tepera | Seung Hwan Oh | |
| WSH | Sean Doolittle | Ryan Madson | Brandon Kintzler |
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
FWIW, Kirby Yates activated from the DL yesterday.
What *is* it worth? Do you think he’s worth owning over like Sergio Romo?
CBS Update from yesterday re Albers says he isn’t the closer (though it seems for observational, as Counsell hasn’t stated anything). Assuming I win the bid that closes in 30 mins, I’ll be dropping him for Bud Norris. Good decision?
CBS Update:
Albers was not summoned in a save situation in either of the Brewers’ wins Tuesday and Wednesday.
In both cases, fellow relievers Josh Hader and Jacob Barnes pitched the eighth inning and were so effective that manager Craig Counsell left them in to finish the job in the ninth inning — and both converted. Albers likely would have gotten the ball had either reliever faltered, so he is theoretically still in the mix for saves in Milwaukee. However, Counsell’s bullpen usage the last couple days makes it clear he is willing to use several relievers to close games, and fantasy players should not expect him to automatically go to one guy in particular for the time being
I think you’d want Norris no matter what. Holland is a disaster right now and Norris seems to be the guy and brings pretty good peripherals along with him.
Albers will probably get some saves just on the days after Hader and Barnes do their two inning long stints or if they’re needed earlier, but I’d still want Norris. Definitely the right call.
I just want to thank the Fangraphs Bullpen Report team. You guys are KILLING it this year. No one else is doing such in-depth Bullpen Reports on a daily basis. And if anything needs updating or correcting we just check the comments below. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
If you win your league because of these reports, you should throw some of those winnings into getting a paid Fangraphs subscription. Just saying…
I’d say Milwaukee is red right now.