Archive for Andrew McCutchen

In fantasy baseball we talk a lot about five-category players or performances but we don’t usually define what that actually means. In its most liberal application, the term is a shorthand for a productive player whose worst performance in any one category is still palatable. Sometimes we’ll talk about someone with sneaky five-category potential when describing breadth of upside.

I suspect that most use the term when describing players who provide a positive value in all five standard roto categories. But in most cases, we use the descriptor when “power-speed threat” might be more appropriate. Or that given the dichotomous relationship between the two skills, we lower our standards in one category because a player stands out in the other. If we use the most literal definition, that a five-category player provides at least positive contributions across all five categories, we’re really talking about just seven players, six of whom were drafted in first five rounds.

The closer grid is updated below, but first up is your current rankings for 5×5 (W,SO,ERA,WHIP,SV), 6×6 (+HLD) and rate-stat (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, H/9, ERA) leagues using z-scores (rate stats adjusted by IP) for each category. It’s currently sorted by the standard 5×5 format. Scroll to the right for all of the individual z-scores in gray. I highlighted the relievers in green:

Here is yesterday morning’s review of Friday’s games including a grundle-grab reference, Edward Mujica probably sticking at closer, Drew Storen definitely sticking at closer, a White Sox closer swap rewarded with shakiness, and an update on Glen Glen Glen!

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It’s official. 100% of my value is bothering @jeffwzimmerman to run data and then use that data for said content. I did just that this morning for updated shift data. I believe the last time he posted related content on RotoGraphs was here back in May looking at: Early Hitter Shift Data.

It was because of this post and his balls in play (groundball and pop-up rates) that led me to believe Albert Pujols was going to drop off/continue his downward trend. I guess I pushed out the fact that he was the best hitter of his generation. While the .375 BABIP (from the above link) against shifts did not last, he’s at a very respectable .284. Between this and additional discipline (best contact rate since 2008 and hacking less at stuff outside of the zone), he is able to hover around a .280 BA, which remains elite in conjunction with 30HR, 90R and 100+RBI.

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As a speedy center fielder who stands just 5-foot-10 and weighs 190 pounds (dreads included), Andrew McCutchen hardly fits the power hitting archetype. But don’t let his small stature fool you — ‘Cutch can go deep. Possessing the quickest wrists this side of Gary Sheffield, McCutchen has increased his home run total from 12 as a rookie in 2009 to 16 in 2010 and 23 this past year. ‘Cutch has discovered his home run stroke by becoming a power threat to all fields. With a little more thump in 2012 and more walks from opponents pitching him carefully, he could become just the second Pirate ever to go 30/30 (some dude named Barry did it in 1990 and ’92).

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Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft.  I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces.  While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season.  I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »

Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield.  You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here.  As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA.  I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.

Middle Infield

Elite Three (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75

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With the National League Outfield Rankings released today, I thought I’d take on the Top 5 as seen by the collective group of RotoGraphs writers.  Now, obviously, I’m not here to give you the no brainer names and tell you to go after them in your draft.  That would be a pretty short article, no?  But perhaps I can give you a few things to think about that just might make your decision as to which one (or two) to target a little more thought provoking. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of September/October, without any position factor considered. Hitters 4-9 could probably be arranged in any order you like, although the top three hitters seem set.

10. Victor Martinez .330-7-25-17-0

These are great numbers for anyone and they are spectacular for a catcher. Martinez is a free agent following this season and it will be interesting to see how many years a club feels comfortable giving him. Fantasy-wise, he is likely to move up from last year’s 48 ADP on ESPN.

9. Jayson Werth .300-9-22-23-4

A free agent at the end of the year, Werth did everything in his power to become one of the top players available on the open market. The Phillies have top prospect Domonic Brown ready to step in for Werth but it will be strange to see him on another team next Spring.

8. Andrew McCutchen .324-4-16-22-5

Coming into the 2010 season, many fantasy players wondered if McCutchen could be a consistent HR threat. While he will never be confused as a bopper, he seems very capable of putting up a 20-HR, 40-SB season in 2011.

7. Chase Utley .306-5-24-21-7

After suffering a torn ligament in his thumb that required surgery, Utley came back quicker than many people expected. He missed just six weeks of action and after a couple of weeks to play himself back in shape, Utley responded with production that fantasy leaguers have come to expect. Now the question remains if he is still a first-round pick or if age and injury concerns drop him lower.

6. Carl Crawford .360-4-19-16-6

Another free agent, Crawford did everything fantasy owners hoped he would do and finished the year as one of the Top 10 fantasy hitters, again. The big question for fantasy players is if Crawford moves to a new team, will he get more SB chances? With an 82 percent success ratio last season, owners would love to see him get even more opportunities than the 57 he had in 2010.

5. Mike Aviles .333-6-14-20-7

In the final month of the season, Aviles hit 6 of his 8 HR and had 7 of his 14 SB for the season. After going undrafted in many 12-team mixed leagues this year, Aviles undoubtedly will be a hot target for fantasy league players in 2011.

4. Drew Stubbs .316-7-18-19-6

With the Reds making the playoffs, Stubbs will be introduced to the wider baseball audience for the first time. Fantasy league players are already aware of the just-turned 26-year-old, who saved his best for the final month of the season.

3. Shin-Soo Choo .340-7-27-19-7

How’s this for consistency – last year Choo had a .300-20-86-87-21 line and this year it was .300-22-90-81-22 line. The only problem with Choo is that he has a two-year obligation to the South Korea military hanging over his head. Choo will be representing his country in the upcoming Asian games and if South Korea wins the Gold Medal, he will likely have the requirement waved. But what if they don’t finish first and Choo goes through with his duty? Is there any chance he could return to be an MLB-quality hitter after sitting out two of his late-prime years?

2. Carlos Gonzalez .378-5-26-24-6

Without a doubt, Gonzalez is this year’s fantasy MVP. He had a preseason ADP of 131.1 according to ESPN but finished as the top-rated player in fantasy, with a $43 12-team mixed value, according to Last Player Picked. Gonzalez had a terrific final month of the year, but it wasn’t quite good enough to be the best.

1. Troy Tulowitzki .303-15-40-30-2

In the last three years, Tulowitzki has played 101, 151 and 122 games. No fantasy player questions his talent, but how soon are you ready to pull the trigger on a player who has missed roughly 1/3 of the season in two of the past three years? And should we be even a tiny bit worried about the new chain of command in regards to the baseballs at Coors Field? Tulowitzki had a 1.034 OPS at home this year and an .863 mark at home.

Honorable Mention – Albert Pujols, Mike Stanton, Corey Hart, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday and Mark Ellis

It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.

The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.

Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.

It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.

Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.

Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))

McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.

Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.