Archive for American League

Two things stand out while highlighting Jake Elmore as the American League outfielder this week. First, it should be noted that Elmore does not yet have outfield eligibility. That is in the works, as Elmore started in left field two days ago — and has four other appearances there — and the Houston Astros plan on keeping him in left field. He does already have shortstop eligibility in Yahoo! (just second base in CBS and ESPN) and given the difference in quantity as well as quality of middle infielders vs. outfielders, it would be wise to play Elmore as your MI even when he does gain OF eligibility.
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After setting the world on fire this past April with a .283/.388/.566 line with five home runs, things have slowed down considerably for Coco Crisp in recent weeks. A quick glance of his batting average doesn’t tell the full story (just as one would expect with batting average) as he repeated his .283 average in May. His May was shortened due to a stint on the disabled list, but for the first eight weeks of his season Crisp looked like a different hitter.

For the first time since 2009 — when he received all of 209 plate appearances — Crisp’s first half walk rate is in double digits, currently at a healthy 11.6%. With already nine home runs on the season he already has more homers this year than in two of the previous three seasons. He’s also managed to trim his strikeout rate down to a tidy 10.6%, the 15th best mark in qualified baseball. In a somewhat recent podcast the present author stated that selling high on Crisp may be a good idea. The question hung in mind of the author and thus Crisp became a subject that required further delving in to.
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Today we have the latest batch of American League outfield rankings. There are some prospects climbing in the ranks rapidly as well as some injured veterans plummeting in value.

Tier One
Mike Trout
Chris Davis

No change here, and no real surprise either. An argument could be made that Davis deserves the number one spot, but the steals tip the scale in Trout’s favor. At this point, no one would whine about having either of these guys on their fantasy team.
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Over the past 30 days Leonys Martin has a .367 wOBA, thanks to a .301/.363/.479 line. Yes, his .365 BABIP over the past month has helped, but even Martin’s seasonal line of .289/.340/.457 is nothing to scoff at. This may be the year that the Cuban defector posts his breakout season.

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Today brings another round of bullish reports. If you’re looking for cheap and readily available outfield help, today is your lucky day.

Brandon Moss
Over the past 14 days, Brandon Moss is 11-for-35 — with five of those hits going for home runs. He also drove in 10 and scored seven runs over that time frame. Following last season’s breakout performance was going to be a difficult task, though he came out swinging in April, May saw him struggle. Many owners on the fence about Moss ditched him during his May slump, and given his .153/.262/.333 line in 84 plate appearances, we shouldn’t be quick to judge those that were quick to drop him. Of course months — and seasons, for that matter — are all arbitrary end points and we can’t get too caught up in them.
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After posting the all bullish stock watch two weeks ago, now the tables have turned and we’ll focus on the bearish report. This isn’t to say that the players here have no value, just less value than their name or draft position may have once yielded them.

Emilio Bonifacio
After stealing 40 bases in 2011 and 30 last season, Emilio Bonifacio finds himself well off of that pace this year. Last season he appeared in just 64 games but still managed those 30 steals, whereas this year he has already appeared in 54 games and has just seven bags to show for it. His strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his triple slash is a gruesome .206/.236/.315. A large part of his struggles can be attributed to his .264 BABIP, which is almost 60 points below his .330 career average. That being said, the skepticism comes from seeing Bonifacio strikeout almost once every four plate appearances. His 10.1 SwStr% is a career worst mark and his 35.8% O-Swing% and his 51% Swing% are both the worst since his rookie season.

Bonifacio may be a prime example of a solid utility player being overwhelmed when given a starters playing time. His projections aren’t kind to him either, as ZiPS and Steamer both predict a batting average around .250, 20 runs scored, and 15ish stolen bases the rest of the season. With Jose Reyes playing in simulated games and not terribly far from a rehab assignment and Maicer Izturis and Munenori Kawasaki both looking for playing time in the middle infield, Bonifacio’s grasp on the second base job looks shaky. Bonifacio isn’t largely owned, just 11% ESPN, 17% Yahoo!, and 28% in CBS leagues, but it may be time to call it a day with him.
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With a lot shifting in the American League outfield, let’s get down to business. But this time it isn’t to defeat the Huns.

Tier One
Mike Trout
Chris Davis

For all the struggles that the Los Angeles Angels have been experiencing, it is hard to find any fault with Mike Trout. He already has double digit steals and home runs as well as a 149 wRC+. The surprise here is Chris Davis, of course. with 20(!) home runs already and a reduced strikeout, plus an increased walk rate, it is hard to find any real faults in his approach or his numbers. Davis’ year to date is certainly impressive, however he can’t keep up this pace forever, right? We’ll see, but given what he has done — and more importantly what he projects to end the season with — has earned him a spot in the top tier.
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Just over 50 games into the season — and about 200 plate appearances in — we have a little bit more information to judge our players on. One of the key statistics that tends to stabilize around the 200 PA mark is BB%. We’ll call today the all optimistic or all bullish version. Next Wednesday will feature the updated tier rankings, but perhaps two weeks time will bring us an all bearish write up.
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We’re about 20 games into the season and certain players are beginning to standout — some for good reasons, and some for bad. Today I also attempt to coin (you’ll get that joke at the end) a new nickname for a player.

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Wednesday is known hump day, so to help get you over the hump is a weekly update on the goings on of the American League outfield. Every Wednesday some attention will be brought to players with rising or falling stock in the American League outfield, with the exception of the first Wednesday of each month where a full tiered rankings update will take place.

Bullish:
Chris Davis
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