Archive for Alex Wood

When Alex Wood reached an agreement with the Dodgers on a one-year, $4 million contract on Sunday, it didn’t quite get the attention of, say, Gerrit Cole’s megadeal with the Yankees. The Dodgers are bringing the 29-year-old lefty back after a one-year hiatus in Cincinnati to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, so it shouldn’t have been a headline-grabbing move. Yet it has only been three years since Wood was one of the biggest stories in fantasy, ranking as a top 10 starting pitcher despite totaling 152.1 innings. After having missed much of 2016 with an elbow impingement, Wood went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 24.6 percent strikeout rate.

If 2019 hadn’t happened, this would have been a much more celebrated move, but as it turns out, 2019 did happen. Wood developed back issues in spring training, and he did not make his debut with the Reds until July 28. He started off decently enough, allowing two runs in each of his first two starts, but then he went on to roll off a string of four starts that produced 18 runs (16 earned) in 18.1 innings. He rebounded with a quality start against the Marlins, though all three runs he allowed were solo homers, giving him a total of 11 allowed in 35.2 innings. After that start, Wood’s back stiffened up again, and he would not take another turn in the Reds’ rotation. He finished with only one win and a 5.80 ERA.
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I did not have high expectations for Alex Wood heading into this season. His early 2017 success was fueled by an uptick in velocity that dwindled through the year, he hadn’t eclipsed 153 innings since 2015, and the Dodgers are, ahem, interesting with their starting rotations. I didn’t expect the shiny new-out-of-the-box 2017 edition Alex Wood to be the real Alex Wood.

And as expected, Wood’s velocity has been dramatically low in 2018, boasting a 90mph sinker after last season’s 92mph average (and averaging 93mph in the opening months), but you wouldn’t have known it if you compared his numbers:

I love this. The end result is the same, though Wood’s lower velocity should tell you that he can’t be holding the same approach for the same results. It’s not out of the question, but seeing his dip in heat has to make you believe there is something else going on under the hood.

And there is.
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When a pitcher starts off a season with a new look, it’s hard to know whether or not you can trust their success. That’s especially true when that “new look” involves a change that we generally assume to be negative.

This is precisely the situation we find ourselves in with regard to Alex Wood. The Dodgers’ lefty has compiled a career-high K-BB% (23.3 percentage points) through four starts, even though his average sinker velocity is more than 3 mph lower than where it was last April. He seems to be carrying a red flag with the words “SELL HIGH” boldly emblazoned on it, but could it be that he has found a new way to succeed?
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About a month ago, I started searching for the league’s underthrown pitches. Pitches that despite inducing elite swing-and-miss, ground ball, and pop-up rates, are thrown with scarcity relative to other inferior offerings. It was as an enlightening a topic to research, as it dealt with untapped potential, as it was a fun series to write. Though to be honest, there wasn’t a whole lot of actionable fantasy advice to be gleamed. But in the process of writing those pieces, I had to grade each pitch. And arsenal scores, a subject of interest to the RotoGraphs community over the years, were just a stone’s throw from away from the groundwork I’d already laid.
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Attempting to write a MASH report is like being asked to replicate the Mona Lisa. I can’t hope to do any better than what the legendary Jeff Zimmerman has done in the past – but let me try to put my own spin on things.

Alex Wood

Alex Wood is going on the DL with left SC joint inflammation.

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughTimes) May 29, 2017

There are a few things that come to mind when you hear about a shoulder injury in a pitcher. The first is usually the rotator cuff strain. If your pitcher was super in to dirt bikes – it might be a separated collar bone. Worse off – you might hear about a labral tear in the shoulder. However, it’s SUPER rare to hear about an SC joint strain.

To orient you to a bit of anatomy, the collar bone links your sternum to your shoulder blade via two joints – the acromioclavicular joint, and the strenoclavicular joint. If you’ve heard about someone landing hard and suffering an AC sprain – that’s a sprain of the end of the collar bone closest to the shoulder joint. The other end, and what Alex Wood is dealing with, is the SC joint.

I’ve checked with Baseball Injury Consultants, and did some rather extensive Googling, and I can’t seem to find any other cases of SC joint inflammation in pitchers. Internet, I’m sure you’re about to prove me wrong. I would expect this to be the type of injury that makes pitching very painful, but once the inflammation dies down, he’ll be no worse for the wear.

Danny Duffy

The Royals Danny Duffy has been very solid this season, pitching to the tune of a 3.54 ERA, and a 3.43 FIP. On Sunday, he went on the DL with an oblique strain that he suffered while covering first base on a grounder. The Royals have publicly stated that he could miss 6-8 weeks – and before I got into my own analysis, I found this great tweet by Shaun Newkirk.

RE: Danny Duffy on the DL for oblique strain. Since 2011, pitchers have missed an average of 44 days due to oblique strains (median 33 days) pic.twitter.com/VQQIcmAuiG

— Shaun Newkirk (@Shauncore) May 29, 2017

An average of 44 days due to oblique strains is a long time to miss. I dove into the scientific literature on the importance of the obliques during pitching, and you can see why it takes so long for arms to return from this injury.

During the pitching motion, the obliques are at near 100% of their capacity (Watkins et al., 1989). These muscles are hugely responsible for torso rotation – a massively important part of the pitching motion. Without healthy obliques, velocity will fall, and pitchers will lose their effectiveness. Unless the pitcher is 100% healed from this injury, the chances are their performance will suffer.

In particular, the non-dominant side oblique is more active during motion (so for Duffy, this would be his right side). This is responsible for the torsion required to throw hard, but also, to protect the lower back from injury during pitching.

If this is a severe injury, don’t expect Duffy back until he’s completely healthy – and the process could start all over again if he is rushed back for a rehab assignment before he’s completely healthy.

Mike Trout

Having me write about a hitter is like having Roger Ebert write about a Cubs game – if he was a really marginal movie critic. Pitching has been the focus of my writing, but what does science know about the UCL tear that Trout suffered while sliding in to second base on the weekend?

This UCL is a lot less severe than the UCL associated with Tommy John Surgery – however, this ligament serves a very similar role in stabilizing the lateral bending of the thumb (compared to the elbow). This vaglus/varus motion, when in extreme force levels, can lead to a rupture of the ligament.

In the orthopaedic world, a complete tear of the thumb’s ulnar collateral ligament is referred to as a Stener lesion, or “Game Keeper’s Thumb”. Go and Google why it’s called Game Keeper’s thumb, I’ll wait.

Welcome back. Pretty messed up, eh? A review by Ryu et al., in 1995 showed there were very inconsistent results when athletes pursued non-operative treatments of this injury – and that surgical options were preferred for long term success.

This injury is associated with a very weak pitch and painful grip – which would significantly impact Trout’s ability to grasp the bat. For return to play times – the news isn’t great, but it’s not as bad as it could be. In a review by Schroeder & Goldfarb (2015), they advised a 6 to 12 week recovery time, including rehabilitation, from surgery.

For the fantasy baseball player, losing the first overall pick is a huge kick in the groin. Hopefully you can tread water before getting Trout back for September and the playoff run.

I’m going to try and do a bi-weekly MASH report from here on out – if you have any players you’d like to have reported on – hit me up on Twitter: @DrMikeSonne

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

For most teams, the offseason loss of a superstar pitcher like Zack Greinke would be crippling. The Dodgers are not most teams. After posting a miniscule 1.66 earned run average in 222.2 innings in LA last season, Greinke headed within the division to Arizona, with $200+ million coming his way over the next six years. Despite his departure, the Dodgers are the favorites to take down the NL West again this season, holding a six-game advantage in our projected standings.

Obviously, the Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw. Most teams are not blessed to have even one true ace, not to mention two of them. Still, instead of standing pat, the club reloaded, adding Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda to bolster the rotation. After four disastrous seasons that led many to consider Kazmir’s career essentially finished, the now-32-year-old resurrected his career in a big way, delivering three consecutive solid campaigns. While he’s not the strikeout machine he was a decade ago, Kazmir provides a steady veteran presence in the rotation, averaging over 30 starts in each of the last three years.

The right-handed Maeda is an unknown quantity heading into his first season in America, which led our own Eno Sarris to search for a comp. If Eno’s analysis is sound — and I’ll go ahead and trust that it is, seeing as Eno probably knows approximately 5,386 times more about the game of baseball than I do — the 27-year-old Maeda looks to be an Aaron Nola type. There’s plenty of value to be found in a steady mid-rotation arm with upside, and that’s what he seems to be. (In an interesting twist, Maeda is the only righty expected to make the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation.)

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Last year, I hit .300 on my Bold Predictions, which is about what I aim for. That feels like the boldness sweet spot. This year, not so much. It saddens me to report that I was overly bold this year, getting just one Bold Prediction right. However, one other was incredibly close, so I’ll say that I hit .150 this season. Still, I can and will do better next year.

I have failed you, dear readers.

1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.

Well, he was a top-100 outfielder, slotting in at No. 99 on the season. Soler battled his fair share of injuries this year, but even when he was healthy enough to play, he hit just .262/.324/.399, with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances. For the year, he registered a 0.0 WAR. Here’s hoping he turns it around next season.

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I’ve stolen from the movie before. I’ll do so again…

Guarantee? If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your fantasy teams’ sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about listening to quality content from me.

If you don’t know where this reference is from, then well…just ring your call button, and Tommy will come back there and hit you over the head with a tack hammer.

I actually will play guarantee fairy here, specifically for deep leagues since there are no uber-exciting names that jump out in my below grid. So here goes…

So long as they pitch to a qualifying level of innings without getting hurt or losing velocity (not ballsy enough to leave out these contingencies), I GUARANTEE these starters won’t be any worse next year (although in the grid below I highlighted in different strengths of green/red both starters and relievers):

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For many in my generation, when one thinks of starting pitching, the focus immediately turns to Atlanta. It’s been an overwhelming constant for the Braves, whether we’re talking Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson or (at least last year) Mike Minor. In fact, since The Strike, the Atlanta Braves have enjoyed the best starting pitching in Major League Baseball. Their cumulative 3.73 ERA is well-ahead of the pack, with the Los Angeles Dodgers being the only other team with a sub-4.00 ERA from their starters since the 1995 season.

Thus, it’s not surprising the Braves trotted out yet another effective rotation last year. Even without the injured Brandon Beachy, their rotation featured three top-30 fantasy starters in Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen. The trio are poised to headline the rotation once again in 2014, so in terms of a fantasy outlook, there’s plenty to like.

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After making just five starts in 2013, Gavin Floyd landed on the disabled list and headed in for Tommy John surgery which, obviously, put him on the shelf for the duration of the season and put his estimated return time to somewhere around mid-May of 2014. Not really the way you want to head into your walk year, is it? But the surgery was successful and all reports on his recovery have been positive. No one is jumping up and down and raving about his newly reconstructed arm, but the reports have been good. As such, Floyd was given a one-year, $4M contract by the Atlanta Braves and he will now finish his rehab under their watch. How things shake out in May, though, will be taken as they come. Read the rest of this entry »