Archive for Alex Gordon

Sniff, sniff… the last full month of the season, and the final installment of the updated in-season rankings is upon us. Third base has been a bit of a roller-coaster this season, starting out devoid of virtually any worthwhile candidates to plug in at the hot corner until today, when many players have resurrected their seasons and others have quite frankly resuscitated their entire careers. It’s not the deepest position to be sure, but it’s not quite the mess that it started out to be.

I want to be clear that this is not third base rankings should a draft be held today for 2012. This is a reflection of the slow, methodical meander which is a 162 game baseball season and where these gentlemen currently belong, give or take a few slots depending on your format.

Tier 1

Jose Bautista

There’s simply little to substantiate Bautista having room up here in the penthouse. His wOBA is .448 — the next closest is Aramis Ramirez at .375 (edit – Alex Gordon at .382). He hit as many home runs in July and August as Alex Rodriguez has hit all season. You could come up with dozens of these examples, but I’ll spare you.

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There’s a new development at third base as we head into the All-Star Break: optimism. Third base surely isn’t considered a deep position but there have been some recent performances that make third base not such a hold-your-nose proposition as it used to be. We have had several third basemen come off the disabled list recently as well as a number of guys sustaining performance that smelled a little fishy just a month ago. On to the rankings!

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There has been a lot of shared pain at third base this season. We’re to a point where manning third base is like trying to find a reliable bat for the extra middle infielder slot: there are only a handful available and those who have, hold tight. There were several players many owners were relying on to emerge as useful fantasy regulars, and while the majority of those names haven’t lived up to expectations, there have been a couple guys contributing in surprising ways to help fill injury or ineptitude gaps.

When updating rankings back in May, my general feeling was that we ought not be too quick to throw players under the proverbial bus or to crown new kings after 100 at bats. But today, the gloves come off so to speak as there are some major moves up and down the third base tiers a third of the way through the season.

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Blame it on the injuries.  Blame it on the fact that the once lush and dense forest of talent to be found at third base is thinning out faster than a middle aged guy’s hairline.  Blame it on Rio or the bellboy, I don’t really care.  The fact of the matter is, the position is like a fantasy nightmare that picks right back up where you left off no matter how many times you wake yourself up and try to calmly fall back asleep.  And it just keeps getting scarier each time. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to believe we’re coming up on the first month of the season, and even a little harder to believe some of the surprises in the performances of the boys at the hot corner. In general, this whole group has been pretty disappointing, but much of that has to do with injury and rotten luck. Some have been great, some have been train-wreck-awful, and we have several new names to add via eligibility updates.  And where a rising tide may float all boats, a collapsing building can produce new views – and thus, the tiers have been shaken up quite a bit from the original ranking.

There are so many changes to the original rankings, including the size and number of tiers, that I’m not going to note an up or down for every player that has moved. Rather, I’ll indicate any notable ascent or descent and give a little rationale thereafter.

Tier 1
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman
Alex Rodriguez

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Some notes on three third baseman to start your Tuesday.

Blake DeWitt | Cubs | 2% Owned

DeWitt was the main piece heading back to the Cubs in the Ted Lilly deal, and has made the Cubs very happy with his production thus far. His line drive approach and quickness will allow for his .335 BABIP to say relatively constant, keeping his batting average around .275. If he can cut back on the strikeouts by a couple percent, he will be an even better fantasy (and real life) option. He won’t hit for much power, or steal many bases, but he’s a good option if you are looking for batting average or you need help in an OBP league.

Alex Gordon | Royals | 19% Owned

Since being recalled from the minors, Gordon has hit four homers in 22 plate appearances, and even stole a base. His walk rate in that time has not been good, and his strikeout rate hasn’t been good, either. His BABIP has been low, compared to his line drive rate, so the batting average will come up a bit. His ability to fill both your third base and left field hole helps his value, and he’s still worth an add in deeper and AL-only keeper leagues.

Paul Janish | Reds | 0% Owned

Janish is starting to enter his peak seasons, so it’s now or never for the Cincinnati shortstop. Janish has always hit a strangely high amount of fly balls for a light hitting shortstop, but his BB and K-rates have been consistently good, and getting better. Like DeWitt, Janish is worth a shot in OBP leagues, though he should probably be slotted in at your shortstop position. If you’re in a keeper format, hopefully Janish shows enough on the field for the Reds to consider him for a starting role in 2011, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Kansas City Royals placed OF David DeJesus (thumb) on the 15-day DL; Recalled OF Alex Gordon from Triple-A Omaha.

DeJesus sprained his right thumb trying to make a catch in center field on what ended up being an inside-the-park homer for Derek Jeter. DeJesus, subject to countless trade rumors due to his solid bat, rangy defense and bargain contract (he has a $6 million club option for 2011), is supposed to meet with a hand specialist in Cleveland sometime today. The 30-year-old hits the shelf with a .318/.384/.443 line in 394 plate appearances, with a career-best .364 wOBA. He’s walking 8.6% of the time and has a .125 ISO, marks that are right in line with his career averages (8.3% and .137, respectively). However, a .355 BABIP that’s 33 points higher than his career figure has boosted his triple-slash.

For the time being, former organizational golden child Alex Gordon will replace DeJesus. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft shifted from third base to the corner outfield this past spring, in deference to top prospect Mike Moustakas. Gordon, a Golden Spikes Award winner ranked by Baseball America as the second-best minor league talent in the game prior to 2007, has yet to rake in the majors and has been beset by injuries. But the 26-year-old Cornhusker has punished the Pacific Coast League since an early-May demotion.

The 6-2, 220 pound lefty batter throttled Double-A pitching in 2006 — Gordon batted .325/.427/.588 in 576 Texas League PA. Walks (12.5 BB%), power (.263 ISO), speed (22 SB in 25 attempts) — you name a skill, and Gordon displayed it. He even rated as a plus defender at third, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone system (+13 runs). That tour de force performance translated to a .253/.331/.440 major league line, per Minor League Splits.

Gordon made the Royals out of spring training the following year and went on to hit .247/.314/.411 in 601 PA (.317 wOBA). He showed decent power (.164 ISO) and stole 14 bases in 18 tries but struggled with his strike zone control at times (6.8 BB%, 25.2 K%). Gordon appeared to scuffle against secondary stuff, with a positive run value versus fastballs (+0.15 runs per 100 pitches) but red marks against changeups (-0.16), sliders (-1.42) and curveballs (-1.92). All things considered, it wasn’t a bad debut for a 23-year-old with minimal minor league experience.

In 2008, Gordon’s bat improved — he posted a .260/.351/.432 line in 571 PA, with a .344 wOBA. His rate of free passes taken jumped to 11.6%, as his outside swing percentage fell from 25.8% in ’07 to 24.1% (the MLB average was around 25% during both seasons). He hit for a similar amount of power (.172 ISO) and cut his K rate a bit to 24.3%. While continuing to hit fastballs well (+0.81 runs/100), Gordon also had positive runs values against changeups (+1.13) and curves (+1.22). His run value against sliders remained below-average (-0.92).

And then, just when it looked as though Gordon was about to make good on his prospect pedigree, the injuries began. He served a DL stint for a right quad strain in August of ’08, but a right hip ailment in 2009 would prove to be devastating. Gordon got off to a wretched start in 2009 before undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip. He rehabbed and returned to Kansas City in July, but was back in the minors by late August (denying him the service time to achieve Super Two status) before being recalled in September. Overall, Gordon hit .327/.451/.558 in 133 minor league PA spread over Rookie Ball, Double-A and Triple-A but just .232/.324/.378 (.321 wOBA) in 189 big league PA.

This past spring, Gordon fractured his right thumb while sliding headfirst into second base during a spring training game. He was activated from the DL in mid-April, but was banished to Omaha after putting up a .298 wOBA in 38 PA. Since then, he has mashed to the tune of .315/.442/.577 in 321 PCL PA. Gordon has walked 16.2%, whiffed 27.7% and has a .262 ISO. According to Minor League Splits, his major league equivalent line is .258/.361/.444.

While he hasn’t been a disaster at the hot corner in the majors (career -2 UZR/150 in 2,805 innings), Gordon’s future in Kansas City, if he has one, figures to come in the outfield. That’s a hit in positional value, both for fantasy owners and for the Royals. For now, though, Gordon will retain eligibility at third. His rest-of-season CHONE projection calls for a .263/.358/.430, and his ZiPS projection is .242/.329/.406.

The chances of Gordon becoming a star-caliber player are very slim at this point, but he’s worth an add in AL-only leagues and could be someone to watch in mixed leagues if he gets penciled into the lineup like he should. There’s nothing left for Gordon to prove in the minors. Hopefully, he gets an extended shot (either in K.C. or elsewhere) to jump-start his career.

UPDATE: According to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (via Twitter), DeJesus is out for the year with a fully torn thumb ligament. He’s scheduled for surgery Monday. With that unfortunate news, it looks like Gordon will get a chance to sink or swim in the majors.

The injury to Alex Gordon opens up more playing time this spring for the Royals in the infield. Most of the early speculation has been on Alberto Callaspo and Josh Fields. But one player who should not be counted out is Mike Aviles. After a breakout season in 2008, Aviles crashed last year, mainly due to an injury which required surgery. In Friday’s game that the FanGraphs group caught, Aviles started the game at second base while Callaspo was at third and Fields at first.

Aviles had Tommy John surgery in July. The normal prognosis is for up to a year to come back from the procedure. But Aviles was feeling strong early in camp and there were thoughts he might be ready to play much earlier, possibly even making the Royals as a utility infielder. The plan for the Royals was to give Aviles some early playing time in the Cactus League at second base, where he would not need to use his arm so much to make long throws. And with Gordon going down, it made finding playing time for Aviles even easier.

In his two games so far, Aviles has gone 2-for-3 in each. Additionally, the Royals consider Aviles to be a strong defensive player. Manager Trey Hillman told the Associated Press:

“I asked one of our developmental people if they could identify our most fundamentally sound infielder. Its (sic) Mike Aviles far as textbook fielding a ground ball, approaching a ground ball and doing it right all the time. One of the staff guys grabbed me the other day and said that’s as good as it gets.”

Neither Callaspo nor Betancourt have good defensive reputations. Callaspo put up some good fielding numbers in limited time previously at second base, but was below average last year in 146 games and the perception was even worse than the numbers. Betancourt had a UZR/150 of -23.9 last year, including a -28.6 after being acquired by the Royals.

If Aviles is healthy and has the best defensive option, his playing time might rest with how well he does at the plate. His big year in 2008 was the result of a .357 BABIP. Last year in 36 games he posted just a .223 mark. The projection systems show Aviles with a BABIP ranging from .300-.316 and with an AVG of .270-.284.

If everything goes right, Aviles could produce a .290 AVG with double digit totals in both SB and HR. That could be a nice pot of cheese at the end of your fantasy draft when you are looking to fill your middle infield position.

One other factor to consider is that Chris Getz is on the roster as a contender for playing time at second base. Getz was not overly impressive either offensively or defensively last year, although fantasy leaguers enjoyed his SB output. So, Aviles is potentially vying with both Getz and Callaspo for playing time at second, the position he is likely to play early in the season as he builds up arm strength.

Because of his defensive reputation on the club, Aviles should have a leg up in the competition. And while he may not get a ton of ABs in the spring due to Kansas City spreading them out to all of the contenders, if Aviles proves healthy throughout Cactus League play he has an excellent shot of breaking camp as a starter. And if he does get the playing time, Aviles is a good fantasy option.

– Alex Gordon broke his thumb, and will miss the next 3-4 weeks. The once highly touted prospect has struggled in the bigs, coming in at -3.3 batting runs for his career. He was likely to put up a solid 2010 campaign, but his injury could hurt his playing time. If the newly acquired Josh Fields plays well in spring training action, he might be able to sneak in and steal the third base job. However, it is more likely that Fields and Gordon will simply platoon, with Fields seeing time against southpaws.

– Dodgers catcher Russell Martin has a pulled groin, according to MRI’s, and will miss the next 4-6 weeks. Martin was in line for a nice bounceback season, with all of the projection systems having him hitting around .273 with 12 homers, and double digit steals. But, a leg injury could make him timid at the plate and could stop him from running as much. Leg injuries always scare me with catchers, and this is no exception. A.J. Ellis will get time in Martin’s absence, but he isn’t important, as his value is as close to zero as you can possibly imagine.

– As you’ve probably heard, Angel Guzman’s career is in question after suffering a major tear in a ligament “near his armpit”, as well as shoulder problems. He plans to have surgery and attempt to come back from his injury, but he wouldn’t be available to pitch this season. Guzman was looking to be the setup man in Chicago this year, and had value as a handcuff to Carlos Marmol, and even more value in Holds leagues. Now it appears that John Grabow is likely to get more high leverage innings, and the Cubs are going to go searching for a new right handed setup man on the trade market.

– Jeff Francis returned to action Friday, after not pitching since September 12 or 2008. Francis isn’t a fantastic fantasy pitcher, but he is a nice source of wins if he’s healthy.

– Josh Hamilton has a bruised left shoulder, and is trying to work his way back. He went 2-3 and scored a run in a spring training game on Monday.

– In other Dodger news, third baseman Casey Blake had to be pulled out of the team’s game on Monday, due to a strained rib-cage muscle. The prognosis is unclear, but it doesn’t appear to be anything serious and the club just wants to be careful.

By the time a top prospect graces a major league field, avid fans can recite just about any detail regarding that player. Height, weight, round drafted (or country signed from), minor league stats, scouting reports, what he likes to eat for lunch..you name it, and it’s known.

With fantasy players going to CIA-like lengths to get the scoop, looking to identify The Next Big Thing before anyone else, expectations for those prospects soar. Sometimes, those players scuffle at first, get hurt or don’t get an opportunity to play every day. They fade from a person’s consciousness, as attention is turned to the next crop of “can’t miss” youngsters.

Today, I’d like to turn your attention back toward some names that everyone swooned over a few years back, but have yet to reach their potential for one reason or another. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Lineup, with CHONE projections for the 2010 season included.

Catcher

J.R. Towles, Astros

CHONE: .252/.332/.409, .326 wOBA

Towles’ minor league track record suggests that he could be better than the average backstop with the bat, but a string of injuries, an ugly line in a small amount of big league playing time (largely the product of a .218 BABIP) and the presence of 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro have torpedoed his status within the organization. It’s difficult to find a guy capable of league-average offense at catcher, so the 26 year-old shouldn’t be written off just yet.

First Base

Jeff Clement, Pirates

CHONE:.264/.342/.460, .350 wOBA

Formerly a catcher, Clement was viewed as a franchise-type player when the Mariners selected him with the third pick in the 2005 draft. However, knee injuries and spotty receiving skills caused him to fall down the defensive spectrum. Now that he’s apparently through strapping on shin guards, Clement will need to slug his way to a big league career at first base. He’s a career .279/.368/.492 hitter in 1,500+ plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Clement, 26, figures to get his first crack at an everyday job if Pittsburgh feels comfortable with Garrett Jones in right field.

Second Base

Sean Rodriguez, Rays

CHONE: .241/.327/.447, .338 wOBA

Snagged from the Angels in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez has beat the bejesus out of the baseball in Triple-A (.298/.396/.620 line in 750 PA), though Salt Lake City (the Halos’ highest minor league affiliate) is a cozy place for a batter to take his cuts. The 25 year-old doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time, but he has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield. With Tampa, Rodriguez will perhaps fill in at the keystone when Ben Zobrist plays the outfield, while catching an occasional start at other positions when a regular needs a breather.

Shortstop

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates

CHONE: .257/.303/.389, .304 wOBA

Slim pickings here. That CHONE projection would actually constitute a great leap forward for the former Cub and Mariner, who has a career .272 wOBA in the majors. Cedeno just plain hasn’t been able to handle big league fastballs to this point: per 100 pitches, he has been two runs below average when a pitcher reaches back and fires. He has hacked first and asked questions later, too, chasing 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Cedeno, 27, will “battle” Bobby Crosby in spring training for a starting spot.

Last we heard, both Ronny and Bobby are trying to board Oceanic Flight 815, hoping to crash on the “The Island” back in 2004. I’m not sure that even Jacob or The Man in Black could help these two, though.

Third Base

Alex Gordon, Royals

CHONE: .267/.353/.435, .350 wOBA

The fervor surrounding Gordon never reached Wieters-esque levels, but the Golden Spikes Award Winner and Nebraska star was supposed to mash from the moment the K.C. home crowd gave him a standing ovation in 2007. Gordon’s ’09 campaign was marred by a hip injury, but it’s important to keep in mind that a “disappointing” major league performance to this point has resulted in a 98 wRC+ (two percent below the MLB average).

The 26 year-old lefty batter must show improvement versus breaking stuff, particularly of the southpaw variety, but CHONE projects an offensive showing that’s 14 percent better than the big league average next season (114 wRC+).

Outfield

Wladimir Balentien, Reds

CHONE: .265/.342/.487, .358 wOBA

Traded from the Mariners to the Reds last year, Balentien is a hulking righty hitter who has impaled pitchers at Triple-A (.283/.359/.534 in 819 PA) and flailed in the majors (.221/.281/.374 in 559 PA, with a 72 wRC+). He hasn’t exactly crushed fastballs. But against curves and sliders, Wlad has looked like a beer league softball player who hit the kegs a little overzealously in the early innings. His contact rate to this point is a Custian 69.8 percent (80-81% MLB average).

Still, Balentien is a 25 year-old with a good record in the high minors. He’ll fight for playing time in left field with a laundry list of others, including Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes, and possibly Chris Heisey.

Delmon Young, Twins

CHONE: .305/.339/.454, .346 wOBA

Remember “Delmon Young, the next Albert Belle“? The first overall pick in the 2003 draft earned the adoration of prospect mavens by throttling pitchers at minor league levels where he was several years younger than the competition. Sure, his strike zone was expansive, but it was easy to dream of a day when he’d be an all-around force at the plate.

Now 24, Young enters the 2010 season with a career 95 wRC+ in the majors. The problems: a tendency to swing at anything from North Dakota to Wisconsin (career 40.4 Outside-Swing% and a four percent walk rate) and roll over the ball (50 percent groundball rate). It also doesn’t help that he has played DH-worthy defense (career -18.9 UZR/150 in LF). He’s not doomed yet, but there’s a good chance that he’s the next Jose Guillen instead of the next Belle

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

CHONE: .284/.345/.423, .338 wOBA

Once a premium center field prospect with the Mets, Milledge is now a left fielder on his third organization. His career wRC+ is just 93, as he has often strayed from the zone (31.6 Outside-Swing%) and rarely popped the ball over the fence or into the gaps (.132 ISO). The soon-to-be 25 year-old doesn’t project as a standout defender, so he’ll need to up the offensive ante in Pittsburgh. Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez both have ETAs of late 2010 or early 2011.