Archive for Alex Gordon

It’s time for another episode of “You can get with that, but this is where it’s at,” boys and girls. This week, we take a look at the heroes manning what may prove to be the thinnest position on the diamond. Where shortstop had such frugal luminaries as Everth Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Elvis Andrus, and catcher featured thrifty backstops like Miguel Montero and A.J. Pierzynski, we may have a harder time finding values at the hot corner.

As usual, we’ll start in the first tier. You can’t really fault anyone for going big with Alex Rodriguez (despite the hip and the age, 3.37 ADP), David Wright (despite the power outage, 14.76 ADP), Evan Longoria (I don’t see a problem here, 10.28 ADP) or Mark Reynolds (the king of the whiff, 20.17 ADP). Why is Ryan Zimmerman being drafted at the end of the third round (39.78 ADP)? I guess people are suspicious of his career high .233 ISO (and 33 home runs) last year. I take the view that nothing seems out of place for a 25 year-old top prospect with a .229 minor league ISO and a slowly increasing fly ball rate, who is also on the correct side of his peak. Sign me up for some of that in 2010.

The next tier has some svelte athletes (Pablo Sandoval, 44.83 ADP), some slow-footed plodders (Chone Figgins, 77.84 ADP) and some low-contact sluggers (Michael Young, 93.51 ADP). Scarcasm aside, why not take a player with possibly the same amount of risk (and yet bundles of upside) a little bit later than the fellow members of his tier? Gordon Beckham (93.87 ADP) had a good rookie season despite a low line drive percentage (16.6%) that kept his BABIP down (.294), and therefore his batting average (.270). But look at the good side, if you prorate out his stats, he had a 21-home run, 11 stolen-base kind of year, and his line drive rates were much higher in the minor leagues. Even if he just finished out the pro-rated string next year, he’d be an ADP value in his tier. Bend it like Beckham!

Let’s move past mixed metaphors to the final tier. This tier makes you realize how turdly third base truly is this year. You can gamble on next year’s Mark Reynolds with Ian Stewart (131.84 ADP) or put your grandfather Larry Wayne Jones (ADP 134.39) in the position and cross your fingers. The projection systems don’t like the bearded wonder Casey Blake (ADP 162.64) for good reason, as late bloomers are usually early exits. You could say the same about Mark DeRosa (ADP 246.44), really. Who’s to like in this tier?

The answer, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, is “I… don’t… know.” I’d probably try to avoid the whole situation altogether by drafting a third-sacker earlier. But I think I might take a pair of players from the bottom, and those two might be Adrian Beltre (ADP 199.55) and Alex Gordon (245.03). Some may say that splits aren’t statistically significant, but perhaps that’s not true in Beltre’s case, who has a grand total of 3272 away at-bats away from pitcher’s havens in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those (probably significant at-bats), he’s put up a .287/.338/.488 career line (compared to a .726 OPS at home). I’d just cover my butt with a post-hype sleeper like Gordon, who had been making nice strides in walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, line drive rate, and reach rate before injury sidelined him last year. I’ll be owning him more than once this year, I’d reckon.

Ah! Let me stop you right there. Jorge Cantu is ranked as a first baseman.

Before we all got fat off of Pecan Pie this week, we checked the position at the hot corner and found that the final tier was lacking and the position was relatively shallow for those in mixed leagues. Let’s take a look at a couple of third basemen that came in just below the fold and could outproduce their draft positions in deep leagues.

Alex Gordon, perhaps because of his draft position or because of the uniform he wears, has been oft-discussed as a figure of projection more than production so far in his career. There’s no doubt that if he puts together a season close to his upside, he will be a huge value to those that select him. At times he’s shown the selectivity at the plate, the power in his bat, and the speed on the basepaths that had people thinking good thoughts. In his sophomore season, he improved his walk rate, strikeout rate, reach rate, fly ball and contact rates. Though all of the increases were incremental, the thought was that he was on his way, just a little slower than we all expected. Then came the hip surgery.

With his struggles after his return, where is Gordon now? On the good side of the ledger, even in 2009, Gordon held on to his gains in his walk rate, reach rate, and contact rates. He took a little step back in his strikeout rate, didn’t hit any line drives, and hit a few too many ground balls. If we blame the line drives and lack of power on the hip injury – not everyone can heal as well as Alex Rodriguez, who also had the surgery earlier than Gordon and also struggled in the early goings in 2009 – then we can regain some of our optimism about the young Royal third baseman. Bill James, ever the optimist, has Gordon down for .272 with 20 home runs and 12 stolen bases. If you are willing to blame the hip, you can take a chance on those numbers and get them for cheap in 2010.

Andy LaRoche is another once-hot prospect that has struggled so far in the big leagues and finds himself on the fringe in positional rankings once again. Of course, his big league team won’t be complaining any time soon – with his good defense (+3.9 UZR/150 career at third) and passable offense (.324 wOBA), he’s already outproducing his cost. And knowing that the Bucs are likely happy with his production is valuable – at least he should stick all year. But will fantasy owners want his stats all year? His fantasy stats (.258, 12 home runs, three stolen bases) were underwhelming, and this was despite his ‘luck’ evening out from early-career lows (.287 BABIP in 2009, .177 BABIP in 2008). The problem seems to be that though he has decent walk and strikeout rates (around 9% and 16% respectively in the last two years), he doesn’t make good contact (17.1% line drive rate career).

On the other hand, the good news in the numbers also come from his contact rates – LaRoche has improved his zone contact rate from 78.6% to 91% and his overall contact rate from 69.3% to 83.2% over the last three years. If he can continue that arc and get the line drive rate up to 20% he could outproduce his projections. It’s worth noting that his line drive rates in the Los Angeles system were consistently around 18%, so there’s a sliver of upside here. Don’t overpay for it, because it’s clear that he has issues making contact, even if he’s making strides.

We will revisit some of the other deep league options in future posts. Let us know in the comments if there is a particular third baseman you’d like to know more about.

Stock Up

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know, everyone reading this site is well aware of Mr. Mauer’s exploits this season. But as Dave Cameron recently noted, we’re entering historic territory here; Joe could be having the best offensive season of any backstop, ever.

The 26 year-old with the silky-smooth lefty swing has performed like a Ted Williams/Josh Gibson hybrid, batting an unfathomable .378/.449/.638, with a .457 wOBA. Despite not making his 2009 debut until May 1st, Mauer has accumulated 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. That leads all major league players. That’s like a sprinter giving his competition a head start, and then dusting them all anyway, running the last quarter of the race backwards for kicks.

I’m not going to delve too deeply into MVP voting philosophy here-the reason for an ostensibly individual award being tethered to team performance has always evaded me. Should we penalize Mauer for not being able to put Delmon Young on base via telekinesis? But, here’s a quick Mauer/Teixeira comparison, with their respective ranks in WAR among hitters:

Mauer: 6.6 WAR, 1st
Teixeira: 4.1 WAR, 24th

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carp essentially didn’t pitch the past two seasons, yet he has returned with a vengeance in 2009. He has been fortunate with a .268 BABIP and a 5.8 HR/FB%, but even when one corrects for those numbers, the 34 year-old is among the very best in the game. In 145.2 IP, Carpenter owns a 3.38 XFIP (based on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and a normalized HR/FB rate). Only Lincecum, Vazquez and Haren can top that mark in the NL.

Carpenter does everything that one desires from a starter: he misses a decent amount of bats (6.86 K/9), is extremely stingy with the walks (1.42 BB/9) and wages a ground-based assault on opposing batters (54.7 GB%). Everything in Carp’s bag of tricks is working: his 93 MPH fastball (+2.13 runs/100 pitches), 87 MPH slider/cutter (+1.89 runs/100) and 75 MPH curve (+1.82) give hitters fits.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

What’s a guy got to do to get a promotion around here? LaPorta (the centerpiece of last summer’s Sabathia blockbuster with Milwaukee) posted a robust .299/.380/.530 at AAA Columbus. The 6-2 right-handed batter worked the count well (11.1 BB%), lowered his whiff rate (16.6%) and also posted a .231 ISO. Yet, LaPorta received only a small cameo with the big club earlier in the year. Manager Eric Wedge also made some mildly alarming comments about the slugger back in April:

“LaPorta is so young, just out of college. He’s off to a good start, and his day will come.” (Ohio.com)

Why is that alarming? Well, 1). LaPorta is 24 years old, 2). he’s a polished hitter out of the University of Florida, and 3). he was a senior sign, as an injury during his junior season caused him to slip in the draft, and 4). LaPorta has a career .291/.384/.557 line in the minors. That profile looks about as major league-ready as possible.

LaPorta’s ultimate position has yet to be determined, but he should provide plenty in the secondary skills department (walks and power) for Cleveland and fantasy owners alike.

Charlie Haeger, Dodgers

Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball features an eclectic mix of human beings. Within the confines of one clubhouse, you may well find a guy tall enough to play power forward in the NBA, and another who couldn’t scrape the “You Must Be This Tall To Ride” sign at an amusement park. There are ivy-league educated players, guys signed out of Latin America at age 16 and Far East Imports. That clubhouse likely has a bonus baby with a seven-figure bank account, and a minor league journeyman used to crashing at Motel 8’s and chowing down on peanut butter sandwiches.

In short, baseball is a sport full of atypical people. And flutterball specialists have a special place in the hears of most fans. Haeger, a former White Sox prospect who also briefly appeared with the Padres, has made two pretty successful starts for the Dodgers. The soon-to-be 26 year-old did posted a 4.67 FIP at AAA Albuquerque, and has allowed 3 runs with a 9/4 K/BB with the Dodgers in 14 frames. For more on Haeger, check out Erik Manning’s post here.

Matt Holliday, Cardinals

So much for the whole..”can’t hit outside of Coors” thing. Holliday has long been a quality hitter, cozy home ballpark or no. He posted an average of +41.8 Batting Runs per season from 2006-2008 (that’s park-adjusted), and his obscene hitting with the Cardinals has boosted his 2009 Batting Runs total to 28.6. He’ll likely finish the season somewhere around +35 to +37 Batting Runs, pretty close to his production in the sudsy wonderland of the Rockies. The pending free agent is a superstar, no matter where he plays his ball games.

Stock Down

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals

Lohse did not appear fully healthy upon returning from a forearm strain. He was blasted for.320/.353/.547 opponent line in August, and now heads back to the DL with a groin strain. In the first year of a 4-year, $41 M deal, Lohse has provided 0.8 WAR ($3.7 M worth of value). The Cardinals have to hope he’ll bounce back, as Kyle is owed about $8.9M in 2010 and roughly $11.9M in both 2011 and 2012.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Cubs currently have less than a 1-in-17 chance of making the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto suffered injuries. Milton Bradley’s power was abducted by aliens on the way to Wrigley. The mileage on Big Z’s arm at a young age appears to be making him increasingly fragile.

Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305.

That still doesn’t fully explain Soriano’s season, though. His HR/FB% has fallen from 17.1% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009. He’s still hitting fastballs well (+0.67 runs/100 pitches), though not at his usual prolific level (+1.93 career). However, Soriano has posted negative run values (curves and changeups have been particularly poisonous) against every other pitch except for cutters.

Soriano will make $18 million annually from 2010-2014, his age 34-38 seasons. If a win above replacement is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then Alfonso must produce a full 4 WAR per season for the Cubs to break even on the exchange. Color me skeptical that he’ll come anywhere near that level.

Michael Bowden, Red Sox

Bowden’s placement here isn’t really about his debacle of a relief appearance against the Yankees on August 21st (though I’m sure he would like to erase the 2-inning, 7 R disaster from his memory bank, Men In Black-style). Rather, it’s about his larger body of work in the minors this season.

The 2005 supplemental first-rounder wreaked havoc on batters in a 2008 season split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket (144.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9), but 2009 has been more of a shrug-inducing effort. That’s not to say that Bowden has been bad, but his numbers with the Paw Sox (115.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) are a little underwhelming.

The 6-3, 215 pound righty has a quality curve and changeup, but he tends to use a fastball of modest velocity and movement up in the zone. That leads to boat loads of flyballs- Bowden’s GB% in AAA was just 31 percent. An extreme flyball pitcher, in the AL, is going to need more than average control to perform well (Bowden’s Major League Equivalent FIP in his time with Pawtucket was 5.13).

John Lannan, Nationals

Lannan’s ERA in 2008 (3.91) was considerably lower than his XFIP (4.47), and he has outdone his XFIP again this season (4.03 ERA, 4.74 XFIP). However, the gap is closing, with the lefty getting drubbed for 19 runs in 18 August frames. He has issued 11 walks, while punching out nine batters.

The 24 year-old boasts above-average control (2.97 BB/9 in 2009) and groundball tendencies (51.3 GB%). However, his strikeout rate has dipped from slightly below average in 2008 (5.79 K/9) to an untenable 3.75 per nine frames. Compared to last season, hitters are chasing fewer of his pitches (26.1% in ’08, 21.3% in ’09; 25% MLB avg.) and are making more contact (83.1 contact% in ’08, 89% in ’09; 80.6% MLB avg). He’s certainly a serviceable back-rotation hurler, but Lannan is more of a 4.50 ERA+ guy than the high-3, low 4 ERA pitcher that we have seen so far.

Alex Gordon, Royals

The ethics of service time manipulation has become a hot topic of late. We have seen potential “Super Two” players down the road (guys with more than two but less than three years of service time, in the top 17% of service time among players in the class) being kept down until the financial coast is clear (think Travis Snider) and other established young vets like J.J. Hardy being farmed out in order to push back free agency by a year.

Gordon falls into the discussion now. By sending the former Nebraska star back to AAA, the Royals delay Gordon’s free agency by a season. While the timing is awfully convenient, the 25 year-old has endured a nightmarish season. He missed a considerable chunk of the year following hip surgery, and has posted a paltry .290 wOBA in 110 PA. He often rolled over on the ball, hitting grounders at a 51.5% clip. Gordon was supposed to be a star by now, and he appeared to make progress in 2008 by upping his walk rate considerably. He’s no sure-fire stud anymore, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off, either.

The deadline to make fantasy trades either has already happened or is just around the corner, depending upon your league rules. If your league still permits trading, start working the phones and see what you can do. In that regard, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Alex Rodriguez – A lot of owners are worried about Rodriguez’ relative lack of power this season, especially given the way new Yankee Stadium has played. Rodriguez has not hit a HR since July 19th and 13 of his 19 HR this year have come at home. But his HR/FB rate is better than it was last season and Rodriguez is unlikely to maintain a .263 BABIP going forward.

Clayton Richard – In his second season with the White Sox, Richard held his own. He posted an ERA just slightly above league average and his K/9 of 6.67 was good. Now he finds himself pitching in the NL without a designated hitter and he goes from pitching in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to Petco Park, one of the best pitching parks in baseball. It should add up to make him a valuable fantasy pitcher for the rest of 2009.

Alex Rios – The expectations for Rios always seem to exceed the actual production. Some hoped he would threaten 30-30 while batting close to .300 and it just has not worked out that way. But Rios is on target to exceed last year’s HR and RBI totals while coming close to his career-best steal output. His BABIP is 30 points below his career mark and RoS ZiPS forecasts him to hit .282 for the remainder of the season.

Jeff Niemann – There is nothing in Niemann’s overall profile to recommend acquiring him, while his FIP and HR/FB ratio might even suggest him as a sell candidate. But since the middle of May, Niemann has been a steady and consistent fantasy hurler. In his last 14 games, Niemann is 8-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.197 WHIP. Niemann has started throwing more curveballs, giving batters another pitch to consider.

Lastings Milledge – Many fantasy owners expected Milledge to have a breakout season in 2009 and that just has not happened. But the trade to Pittsburgh offers him a new start and he has two things in his favor now that he did not have earlier in Washington. First, Milledge is not a leadoff hitter and with Andrew McCutchen around to fill that bill for the Pirates, it frees Milledge to bat lower in the order. And while it does not appear on the surface to matter in fantasy, McCutchen also allows Milledge to play an outfield corner in Pittsburgh, where he is much more suited defensively. Milledge is only owned in 23 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is worth a flier if he is available on your waiver wire.

Exchange

Aramis Ramirez – Fantasy owners have been without Ramirez for most of the year, so it seems an odd time to be shopping him now. Since returning from the DL, Ramirez has posted a .321-5-17-15-0 fantasy line in 21 games. But Ramirez also has a .353 BA BIP, 58 points above his career average. And his HR/FB rate of 16.4 percent is his highest since 2005.

Joba Chamberlain – He has been lights out in his last three starts, offering fantasy owners the production they dreamed about when they selected him in the top half of their draft. But while he is doing his best pitching of the season, word is that the Yankees are going to cap his innings somewhere around 160 innings this season. Now, when push comes to shove, New York may not go through with that plan but Chamberlain owners owe it to themselves to see if they can trade him for equivalent value and minimize their risk going forward.

Alex Gordon – After spending most of the season on the DL with a hip injury, Gordon is back for the Royals. His first two weeks back have been nothing special. Like Rios, expectations for Gordon always seem to outstrip his production but Gordon is unlikely to offer the upside of Rios in any single fantasy category for the rest of the season.

Jarrod Washburn – He was exceeding all expectations this season in Seattle and now he has to keep that performance up in the heat of a pennant race in Detroit. Washburn has been through the playoff chase numerous times before while with the Angels but owners should be wary of how he will do moving away from Safeco Park and the vaunted Mariners defense. And for what it is worth, Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in eight starts in Comerica Park.

James Loney – In his last 14 games, Loney is batting .397 with 14 RBIs. But even in this hot streak, Loney has zero HR. Loney’s HR/FB rate checks in at a dismal 5.4 percent and in order to be a valuable corner infielder in fantasy, Loney will need a much higher AVG than his .293 mark this season with such puny HR production.

Golden Spikes Award winner. Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. The next George Brett? Without question, expectations are sky high for Royals third baseman Alex Gordon. Selected out of Nebraska with the 2nd overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Gordon had a brief but spectacular minor league career. He tamed the Texas League (AA) in 2006 while with Wichita:

2006 (AA): 486 AB, .325/.427/.588, 12.9BB%, 23.3K%, .263 ISO

As a 22 year-old, he made mince meat of the league while skipping A-Ball altogether. Gordon displayed plenty of pop and a promising walk rate. His strikeout rate was somewhat high, but it’s difficult to call Gordon’s debut anything other than a rousing success. Following the 2006 season, pundits heaped praise upon the former Cornhusker. In addition to the BA Minor League Player of the Year Award, Gordon was named the second best prospect in the game by the same publication.

Both scouting reports and statistics alike had Gordon pegged for a rookie tour de force, as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system had his worst case batting line at .243/.320/.432. Given his patience and power, Gordon figured to hit the ground running in Kansas City.

While his rookie season was far from a disaster, Gordon’s initial taste of the majors was somewhat disappointing. He didn’t reach that 10th-percentile PECOTA projection:

2007: .247/.314/.411, 7BB%, 25.2K%, .164 ISO, 19.5 LD%, .304 BABIP

The keen batting eye that Gordon displayed at Nebraska and at Wichita didn’t translate as smoothly as expected, and his K rate predictably remained high. The .164 ISO ranked him toward the middle of the pack among third baseman and his line drive rate was solid, though Gordon had a pretty rough go of it versus southpaw pitching (.217/.266/.420).

This past season, Gordon would show a moderate amount of improvement, giving hope that 2009 will be his true breakout campaign:

2008: .260/.351/.432, 11.8 BB%, 24.3K%, .172 ISO, 21 LD%, .314 BABIP

Gordon upped his walk rate nearly five percentage points, while also slightly lowering his strikeout rate. His ISO improved just slightly as well. While the relevance of first half/second half splits can certainly be debated, it seems reasonable to suggest that they might mean more with a young, still-developing player who shows a significant increase in performance. Gordon hit .277/.392/.496 in 167 PA after the All-Star Break before missing time in late August and September with a hip injury. While he hit a robust .273/.370/.491 versus right-handers, lefty pitching continues to be Gordon’s nemesis (.234/.312/.317, 41 K in 187 PA).

While Alex Gordon didn’t get off to the lightning-fast start that was expected of him, it is important to remember that he will just turn 25 years old this offseason, and is coming off of a season in which he showed a solid amount of improvement with the bat. With several years of development time remaining and a broad base of skills with which to work, Gordon looks like a good buy-low candidate.