Archive for Adrian Beltre

Blame it on the injuries.  Blame it on the fact that the once lush and dense forest of talent to be found at third base is thinning out faster than a middle aged guy’s hairline.  Blame it on Rio or the bellboy, I don’t really care.  The fact of the matter is, the position is like a fantasy nightmare that picks right back up where you left off no matter how many times you wake yourself up and try to calmly fall back asleep.  And it just keeps getting scarier each time. Read the rest of this entry »

For two of the last three off seasons, Michael Young dominated the headlines with his contempt for the Texas Rangers and his demands for a trade.  He was angry with the team for asking him to move from shortstop to third to make room for Elvis Andrus back in 2009 and then the whole story repeated itself this past winter when the team signed Adrian Beltre, asked him to move to DH and then traded for Mike Napoli, who was supposedly going to steal some at bats from him.  The fight was getting bitter and every time you turned around, there was a new rumor popping up as to where Young was going to land. Read the rest of this entry »

Directly related to this comment from Mike Podhorzer and his piece on the Cheapest Pitching Staff Possible, I often use a term to describe the process by which a manager reacts, in my estimation, incorrectly to the developments of his or her respective snake draft.  As Mike pointed out, “zigging” when your fellow managers are “zagging” may allow you a degree of competitive advantage, and failure to do so is what I call ‘chasing the draft’, and while it’s hard to avoid sometimes, it frequently requires that you wad up your draft strategy and toss it in the rubbish bin.

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I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

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In this week’s edition of Crowdsourcing Results, we learn that you really don’t care about Chone Figgins.

Adrian Beltre (Average Owner, You)
My Vote: 48, 65
Average: 51.35, 60.86
Median: 50, 58
Std Dev: 18.88, 22.65

The data shows that I’m a little less inclined to pay for a third baseman who’s past his peak years then the majority of you were, but we weren’t off by much. It sounds like he’d be targeted around the 5-6 turn if you had your way, but you expect him to go about a round earlier, closer to the 4-5 turn. Beltre may be a hot name after the season he had last year and his return to the public consciousness thanks to playing for the Red Sox, and name value can be worth even more than actual production in some drafts. If Beltre takes advantage of his new digs and gets comfortable in the Rangers’ lineup, picking him at the end of the fourth or beginning of the fifth could very well be worth it.

Chone Figgins
My Vote: 10, 13
Average: 10.62, 11.13
Median: 10, 11
Std Dev: 3.58, 4.03

These results were pretty bland, and it was clear that Figgy is not all that interesting. At least according to you all. Even though we had our lowest sampling ever, the results were pretty clear. Figgins is going to be drafted as a starting second baseman (as he should), but is going to be taken too early to declare him a value. While counting on a player past his prime to bounce back after a bad year is hard, I’d bet on Figgins doing it. I definitely wouldn’t take him in the tenth unless I was desperate for steals, but I could be convinced to nab him in the eleventh or twelfth, depending on how my roster was constructed.

Next week in ADP Crowdsourcing, we take a look at Matt Garza and Jeremy Hellickson. See you then.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go topical. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are still using pick number today instead of round due to the expected results.

Adrian Beltre, who had a lot of hype surrounding him last offseason thanks to his move to Fenway, has finally found a suitor in the Texas Rangers. Beltre looked very good while wearing the Red Sox uniform last year, and he posted a slugging percentage over .500 for the first time since his breakout season with the Dodgers in 2004. Beltre also went to work lowering his strikeout rate by making contact with balls outside the zone at a much higher rate. For the first time since 2003, Beltre had an overall contact rate above league average.

Moving from Fenway to Arlington may seem like a bad thing for Beltre’s fantasy value, but according to Statcorner’s park factors, Texas is a better place for righties to hit dingers compared to Boston. Moving to the Rangers will also affect Beltre’s run and RBI opportunities, but Texas still has a pretty good offense on their hands, even if they stick with Michael Young as their DH. Beltre will be in the lineup every day, and should hit in the middle of the order thanks to the absence of Vladimir Guerrero.

Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Beltre will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using pick number, not round this time because of Beltre’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some third basemen.

Adrian Beltre
When it comes to Beltre, it may all depend on where he signs this offseason. Will he stay in a venue that fits his strengths? My guess is that after playing in Safeco, he won’t play in a pitcher’s park if he can help it. Also, can he perform without his next contract on the line?
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. While it’s not star level production, I’ll take that from my starting third baseman.

Mark Reynolds
Believe it or not, you can swallow a .200 average if you’re getting 35 homers. But, is that worth keeping?
Crude 2011 Projection: .230/.340, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. It’s hard to deal with him, but the power is hard to come by.

Pedro Alvarez
His rookie year has been right in line with my expectations, but a hot September has me dreaming of so much more. He’s still young, and very raw, but the potential is enormous. Can he learn to control the stick with more precision during the offseason? My gut says yes.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. An above-average 2011 goes down smooth with a great 2012.

Ian Stewart
2009 showed us Stewart’s power potential, while 2010 showed us his improved ability to hit for a decent batting average. If he can put it all together and continue to get a majority of the playing time against righties, he’ll have value.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 20 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. See a pattern yet?

Chase Headley
Headley’s move back to third base proved to be a prudent move by the Padres, as he’s been close to a 5 win player this year. His stolen base numbers have been a big surprise, but his ability on the basepaths will be a key part of his value since he doesn’t hit for much power. He should be entering his peak shortly, so there is no better time than the present for Headley to improve.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 15 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. Those numbers are pretty good for a guy who’ll slip in a lot of drafts.

Aramis Ramirez
Even after a horrendous start, Aramis somehow managed to end the season with a decent fantasy line. He still has a lot of problems to work out during this offseason, but he could be a nice option next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. He won’t be worth what you have to pay to keep him, but don’t be afraid to snatch him back up in the draft.

If you have a third basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of June

10. Hanley Ramirez .298-4-25-17-9

While none of these numbers jump out at you, Ramirez contributed across the board last month. And those 9 SB were the fourth-highest in MLB. Some might prefer Carl Crawford here, and their months were very similar, but I preferred Ramirez’ 11-RBI edge to Crawford’s 2-SB lead.

9. Brandon Phillips .373-2-7-22-3

Yes, the HR and RBI numbers were nothing to get excited about. But Phillips finished in the top 10 in both AVG and R. And since people think I am too negative about Phillips in general, I thought I would recognize his fine month.

8. Rafael Furcal .362-3-16-21-4

After missing most of May with a strained hamstring, Furcal had an outstanding month in June. While some observers thought his defense suffered, Furcal showed no signs of the hamstring slowing him offensively.

7. Adrian Gonzalez .363-7-23-14-0

He finished in the top 10 in each of the Triple Crown numbers, which made up for the bagel in SB

6. Dustin Pedroia .374-4-16-19-6

His fine month was cut short when Pedroia broke his left foot while fouling a ball off on the 25th. The previous day he had a 5-for-5 game with 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

5. Adrian Beltre .376-7-19-19-0

The difference between fourth and eighth on this list is very small in my opinion. You could make a case for any order and I would not disagree with you.

4. Vladimir Guerrero .356-6-24-22-0

In early June I turned down an offer of Guerrero for Ubaldo Jimenez. Since that team needs offense, I think I might have screwed up.

3. Chris Coghlan .377-3-13-30-2

He led all hitters in runs scored in June and finished fourth in AVG.

2. David Wright .404-6-29-20-4

After posting a 37.1 K% in May, Wright was down to a more manageable 24 percent rate last month. He had a .486 BABIP for the month of June along with a .475 wOBA and a 202 wRC+.

1. Josh Hamilton .454-9-31-23-3

As great as Wright was in June, Hamilton was better. He led MLB in both AVG and RBIs, finished 2nd in HR and 5th in R. He was touted as a buy candidate here in early May and I hope you were able to add him to your team.

Honorable Mention – Crawford, Reyes, Boesch, Sanchez, M. Ramirez

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Jose Reyes – Those owners who gambled on Reyes might be ready to cut bait. In addition to his .232 AVG, Reyes’ walk rate is less than half of what it was a season ago, he has yet to hit a single HR after reaching double-digits in his last three healthy seasons and he ranks fifth in the majors with a 20.0 IFFB%. But since returning to the leadoff spot 10 games ago, Reyes is batting .283 with 8 R and 3 SB. It’s too late to get him for pennies on the dollar but RoS ZiPS shows him with 30 SB the rest of the way. And those will be worthy paying for if they come with above average R and AVG marks.

Wandy Rodriguez – His BB/9 is up, while his K/9 and HR/9 are down from a year ago. It adds up to an ERA 1.31 higher than it was in 2009 and an xFIP 76 points above last year’s mark. Rodriguez has struggled this year with his curveball. The pitch which had been such a strong offering for the previous three seasons now checks in with a wCB/C of -2.55, a change of 4.5 runs from 2009. It is hard to imagine his curve being so poor the rest of the season – the most likely scenarios are that he either improves with it from here on out or ends up on the DL. If his back can hold up, Rodriguez is a good buy-low candidate.

Ervin Santana – His numbers look solid overall but Santana has pitched very well after getting roughed up in his first two starts of the year. He allowed 9 ER in his first 11.2 IP but since then Santana has given up 19 ER in 57.1 IP for a 2.98 ERA. While his average FB velocity is still down from his big 2008 season, Santana is getting good mileage with his slider. On Tuesday’s start against the Blue Jays, Santana got 14 swinging strikes with his slider. His xFIP and RoS ZiPS both show Santana as a sell candidate but with each start he looks further removed from 2009’s 5.03 ERA and closer the 2008 version, even without the great fastball.

SELL

Adrian Beltre – Many people expected Beltre to bounce back in 2010 with his move to Fenway Park. Safeco Field suppressed power from RH hitters and many thought that Beltran would at least get back to his mid-20s HR power, if not more than that. But Beltre has a career-low 28.9 FB%, making a big HR season virtually impossible. Right now Beltre’s value is tied up in his .327 AVG, which is the result of his .381 BABIP. Beltre has topped .300 just once in his career. He has a .293 lifetime BABIP and his career-best is the .325 he posted in 2004.

Alex Rios – He has rebounded nicely from last year’s dismal performance and is on pace for 34 HR and 53 SB. But Rios has a career-high 14.3 HR/FB rate and a 45.7 FB%, also a personal-best. And not only is Rios hitting more fly balls, he has a 53.9 FB% in his home park, where he has hit six of his nine HR. Perhaps Rios has a completely different approach at the plate at home than he does on the road. But it is more likely to be a fluke. Odds are against Rios hitting 34 HR and even the 24 that Updated ZiPS projects might be optimistic. Clearly, at age 29, a career-high in HR would not be unexpected, but do not expect him to shatter his previous best of 24 HR. Also, Rios’ career-high in SB is 32 and in his other five full seasons in the majors, he has averaged 17 SB per year.

Alfonso Soriano – George Steinbrenner once dubbed Dave Winfield “Mr. May” and that moniker might work for Soriano, too. He is batting .347 with 6 HR and 16 RBIs this month with six games left to play. Lifetime, Soriano has 67 HR in May, the most of any month in his career. Soriano currently has a .363 BABIP and a .306 ISO, both of which would easily be career-bests. Fantasy owners likely got Soriano at a huge discount after his poor season in 2009. While they should not just give him away, neither should his owners look to get too greedy with a player who has missed 98 games the past two seasons.

HUNCH

Joe Saunders – I am a big Saunders fan because he consistently delivers Wins despite poor peripherals. Even with a 3-6 record this year, Saunders has a 51-28 lifetime record. After starting the season 1-5 with a 7.04 ERA, Saunders has seemingly gotten back on track in his last four games, going 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. I like him to better his RoS ZiPS projection of a 9-8 record and 4.84 ERA.

It’s time for another episode of “You can get with that, but this is where it’s at,” boys and girls. This week, we take a look at the heroes manning what may prove to be the thinnest position on the diamond. Where shortstop had such frugal luminaries as Everth Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Elvis Andrus, and catcher featured thrifty backstops like Miguel Montero and A.J. Pierzynski, we may have a harder time finding values at the hot corner.

As usual, we’ll start in the first tier. You can’t really fault anyone for going big with Alex Rodriguez (despite the hip and the age, 3.37 ADP), David Wright (despite the power outage, 14.76 ADP), Evan Longoria (I don’t see a problem here, 10.28 ADP) or Mark Reynolds (the king of the whiff, 20.17 ADP). Why is Ryan Zimmerman being drafted at the end of the third round (39.78 ADP)? I guess people are suspicious of his career high .233 ISO (and 33 home runs) last year. I take the view that nothing seems out of place for a 25 year-old top prospect with a .229 minor league ISO and a slowly increasing fly ball rate, who is also on the correct side of his peak. Sign me up for some of that in 2010.

The next tier has some svelte athletes (Pablo Sandoval, 44.83 ADP), some slow-footed plodders (Chone Figgins, 77.84 ADP) and some low-contact sluggers (Michael Young, 93.51 ADP). Scarcasm aside, why not take a player with possibly the same amount of risk (and yet bundles of upside) a little bit later than the fellow members of his tier? Gordon Beckham (93.87 ADP) had a good rookie season despite a low line drive percentage (16.6%) that kept his BABIP down (.294), and therefore his batting average (.270). But look at the good side, if you prorate out his stats, he had a 21-home run, 11 stolen-base kind of year, and his line drive rates were much higher in the minor leagues. Even if he just finished out the pro-rated string next year, he’d be an ADP value in his tier. Bend it like Beckham!

Let’s move past mixed metaphors to the final tier. This tier makes you realize how turdly third base truly is this year. You can gamble on next year’s Mark Reynolds with Ian Stewart (131.84 ADP) or put your grandfather Larry Wayne Jones (ADP 134.39) in the position and cross your fingers. The projection systems don’t like the bearded wonder Casey Blake (ADP 162.64) for good reason, as late bloomers are usually early exits. You could say the same about Mark DeRosa (ADP 246.44), really. Who’s to like in this tier?

The answer, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, is “I… don’t… know.” I’d probably try to avoid the whole situation altogether by drafting a third-sacker earlier. But I think I might take a pair of players from the bottom, and those two might be Adrian Beltre (ADP 199.55) and Alex Gordon (245.03). Some may say that splits aren’t statistically significant, but perhaps that’s not true in Beltre’s case, who has a grand total of 3272 away at-bats away from pitcher’s havens in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those (probably significant at-bats), he’s put up a .287/.338/.488 career line (compared to a .726 OPS at home). I’d just cover my butt with a post-hype sleeper like Gordon, who had been making nice strides in walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, line drive rate, and reach rate before injury sidelined him last year. I’ll be owning him more than once this year, I’d reckon.

Ah! Let me stop you right there. Jorge Cantu is ranked as a first baseman.