Sunday Night Fantasy Chat

RotoGraphs will be hosting this chat every Sunday night during the season to help owners decided on their waiver claims and FAAB bidding. I will be the normal chat host but others may step in if I have other commitments.

The start time will need to be after 7:00 PM CST when I host so it’s at 7:30 for now. Let me know how the time works.

As for the focus of the chat, I’ll try to answer fantasy questions on waiver wire pickups and FAAB bidding. I’ll answer other fantasy questions if no more acquisition questions are in the queue.

7:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone and I hope to get to as many questions as possible.

7:28
Corey: League draft is after the season starts, should I be able to draft Kingery in our minor league draft or do you think all should be able to bid on him in the major league auction??

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Bid in the MLB section. If owners want him, they should be able to ante up any amount during the auction.

7:30
KilleBrews: Strongest pre-season pitcher add: Boxberger, Junis, Yates rkt

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Boxberger until AZ bullpen has been situated.

7:30
LudeBurger: I don’t draft until Wednesday 🙁 but I am really looking forward to my first one in 4 years

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Have fun.

7:31
LudeBurger: this is a great idea!

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks. Let us know of any suggestions to improve it.

7:31
Edwin: Vlad Jr. & Tatis Jr. – either worth a hold in deep bench re-draft league?  Am I hoping for too much too soon (like Aug/Sep call-up)?

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: I think a late-season call-up is possible. The Jays and Padres don’t expect to be contenders so they don’t have a reason to rush them this year. I do expect the pair to contribute in ’19

7:33
Steve: Roster crunch time. Robles or Devers long term?

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Power vs. Speed. I’m a huge Robles fan so I would lean towards him.

7:34
Big Tuna: I’m in a 12 tm OPS with a 6 man bench. Should I pick up Eloy and stash him for his upside?

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: I think so but I’d only carry one prospect.

7:35
Slapshot: Would you start Jackie Bradley Jr. or Bradley Zimmer as a 5th OF to begin the season in a standard 5×5 roto league?

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: One sec … I haven’t looked at scedules yet.

7:37
Jeff Zimmerman: Either one really. Maybe Zimmer vs Seattle (weaker staff)

7:37
Joe: Rick Porcello….what is this guy, really? He’s not a perennial Cy Young contender but he’s also not the 2017 version.  Somewhere in between right?

7:38
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and will likely get 180 K’s and 14 W’s. He’s an accumulator which can be useful. Just set him against tough opponents.

7:38
Big Tuna: Can make one waiver claim in a 12 team OPS league. Would you go for Derek Fisher, Winker, Cron or Moran?

7:39
Jeff Zimmerman: Fisher (best player) then Moran (will play). You may need to sit Fisher for a week or two as Houston’s roles get worked out.

7:40
This is Lude-icris: In light of the Scott Kingery news how big should the bump up be in drafts this week?

7:41
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d look to own but would not count on him for production. He really doesn’t have a spot to play. I think he will get overvalued.

7:41
Yoat: With Souza out, what do you see for Dyson

7:42
Jeff Zimmerman: What Dyson has always been, around a .250 AVG, 0 HR, and 30 SB.

7:43
bdg: What does the crystal ball say about A. Toles this year?

7:44
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not a fan. Low 20’s HRs from a 1B just doesn’t cut it.

7:44
Guest: Where does Kingery rank (overall and among 2B) now assuming he’ll be up for the year?

7:46
Jeff Zimmerman: Using my rankings, probably around the 30th overall. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-composite-rankings-second-base…

7:46
Kelly: Which prospect starting  in the minors do you think will have the biggest fantasy impact this year other that Ohtani and Acuna?

7:46
Jeff Zimmerman: Acuna … easily.

7:46
Sunrise089: Playing FB for first time (very experienced with FF). 16 team H2H points league. In general do I want to rank hitters by wOBA (ignoring defense and not park adjusting) and pitchers by WAR (since quality and volume matters)? Hitters get -1 points per strikeout,  it

7:48
Jeff Zimmerman: Loaded question and the exact league setting matter a ton. I’d put the league settings into our auction calculator and use those this first season: https://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx

7:48
Kelly: Who has a better fantasy year Torres, Jimenez, or Robles?

7:49
Jeff Zimmerman: Robles based on an easier path to majors since he’s an OF. Only one guy has to get hurt to get called up.

7:49
Jesse: I decided to go heavy on starting pitchers in my 14 team H2H league, went with Miller and Kintzler for my 2 RPs to get the strong strikeouts. I still need saves tho, who’s most likely to end up seeing saves that wasn’t drafted?

7:49
Jeff Zimmerman: Keone Kela?

7:50
ChatzMcGee: How many closers (projected preseason) do you need to feel comfortable going into a season for Roto?

7:50
Jeff Zimmerman: 10 team: 3

7:50
Jeff Zimmerman: 12-15: 3 also, but not always possible

7:50
Jeff Zimmerman: >15: 2 only.

7:51
Jeff Zimmerman: They won’t always be good closers but I like to aim for an above average amount.

7:51
John: You feelin Puig this year?

7:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, his fantasy price is now getting close to his talent

7:52
Nate: I have a 6 player keep forever league. Some teams are concerned they won’t be able to compete. How can we change the rules to keep the teams with a lot of great keep forever options happy and the ppl trying to do

7:54
Jeff Zimmerman: You might not be able to do so. It’s great for the teams who have the players. There is no good answer here without major rule changes.

7:54
C.G.: Just faab and wire questions or can I ask a draft ?.  Thank either way

7:55
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft is fine

7:55
Tommy: Any thoughts on the Rays bullpen/5th starter approach? How do you feel about Chirinos and Yarbrough?

7:56
Jeff Zimmerman: None. If the Rays 5th starter is in play in your league, get in a shallower league. I’d own a middle reliever like Andriese before either starter.

7:57
Big Tuna: Is Nola, CMART, Price, Wacha, C. Anderson, Manaea, JMont a good enough staff in a 12 team league or should I be looking to pounce on some lower WHIP or ERA guys who are less sexy (McCarthy, Ryu, Happ, etc.)

7:58
Jeff Zimmerman: You probably have an average staff at best without a top arm. I think you will need to churn on the WW to take a step forward

7:58
Joey: Who are some overlooked rookie starting pitchers in deeper mixed leagues that should start in the big leagues or get called up after 2 weeks?

7:59
Jeff Zimmerman: I thought they all had Tommy John surgery.

7:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Kopech and Glasnow are the only two rookies I’m targetting.

8:00
Michelle: Thanks again for doing this Jeff! I have David Peralta for $7 in a 9-team NL Only. I was considering keeping him, but I’m scared of the humidor. Keep or throw back?

8:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Keep. Most of his game isn’t power based.

8:00
Dean Dao: Better stash and fantasy impact for 2018: Senzel or McMahon?

8:01
Jeff Zimmerman: McMahon. The Rockies feel like contenders so they will likely promote as needed to win.

8:02
Jeff: In a long term head to head keeper league, no draft picks/$$ associated with the keepers, how would you rank Ray, Castillo, & Godley as potential SP pickups for keeper consideration?  Already have Kershaw & Kluber as keepers.

8:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Castillo, Ray …….. Godley

8:03
TS: I’m in a 10 team 6×6 with OPS and Holds. Who do you like of Semien, Marte, Beckham, and Crawford?

8:04
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d take a chance on Crawford to see if he has taken a step forward. If not, go get one of the others off waivers. It’s a 10-team league so you need to bet on upside. Marte is #2 for same reason.

8:04
Jeff: What are your thoughts on Jack Flaherty? I grabbed him today in a 10tm h2h keeper, but I think he format is too shallow. Thoughts? What is his upside this season ?

8:05
Jeff Zimmerman: I think you are right in a 10-team but if you can bench him for a start, do it. Check his velocity and see if there is a new pitch. Look for a reason for a talent jump. If none, drop and find another pitcher

8:06
Bill: What’s the major differences between Roto and H2H categories? What categories should be more targeted in H2H Cats or is it completely equal?

8:07
Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on the H2H format. If just one win for the week, focus on just a few categories (ERA, WHIP, Saves) and win those every week. Otherwise, you will need a more balanced team to win the categories.

8:07
Bill: Top 6 picks in H2H categories? Trout, Altuve, ??

8:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Trout, Stanton, Sale, Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber.

8:10
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, the chat is posting and then not posting questions. Here’s the question.

8:10
Brett: Recency bias seems to play such  a large part in every fantasy baseball draft.  For example, players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez are written off after 1 bad year when both players are young enough to bounceback and both hit 3 or 4 in the lineup.  What are your thoughts on this?

8:10
Jeff Zimmerman: One minute…

8:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Test

8:12
Jeff Zimmerman: That is a great look at recency bias

8:13
cb: In my auction yesterday, pitching went for insane prices ($300 budget, for example, $37 Darvish, $35 Quintana, etc.) despite tons of pitchers being available (39% spent on pitching).  With 6 SP slots and 5 RP slots (5×5 mixed), I ended up going for upside with: Bauer $19, Jon Gray $20, Giolito $7, Tallion $8, Gohara $3, and Folty $1 as my SP’s with Ohtani snuck in as my UT for $13 (if you can’t get quality, get quantity!).  Does this have a chance or am I in serious trouble?  I have speed to trade, but it might be tricky to get anyone to trade a top pitcher given the prices paid.

8:14
Jeff Zimmerman: You’re likely hosed as owners anchor future trades to initial prices. One trick I’ve found is to look for breakouts who cost very little. Owners may be more inclined to move them since they had fewer resources in them.

8:15
Injury bug: D.Lamet leaves with elbow injury.  Is it safe to assume this is eventual tommy john surgery?  Have to make a quick decision based on waiver wire running tonight

8:15
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d assume the worst. Best case make be the Tanaka route.

8:15
Cleveland Rocks: How quickly could Francisco Mejia join the big club in Cleveland?  And when he arrives, is he there for good?

8:17
Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to force himself on the team. Without a major injury, I’d guesstimate the ASG. I do think he’ll be there for good once the decision is made.

8:17
HBP: <hit return too soon>   Do you see kingery developing into a 340+ OBP guy this year?  Love the tools. Want to see him get on base at decent clip

8:18
Jeff Zimmerman: No, projections have him around a .300 OBP.  I don’t see a 40 point improvement.

8:18
Texas toast: How soon before Willie Calhoun comes back to the Rangers?  No more than a month, right?

8:19
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m betting on two weeks or the amount it takes to get an extra year of service time.

8:19
Greg: Early 10 team NL only SS issues. Pick up Enrique Hernandez, Ahmed, Valaika, or Culberson? Drop Wilmer Flores or Joc?

8:19
Jeff Zimmerman: I think Ahmed. Drop Joc.

8:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Now, I run into this same issue in my only leagues. You may be best to trade. Some owner is still likely high on Joc.

8:20
Jonesy: Ozzie Albies worth a waiver wire claim?  What type of expectations do you see for him?

8:21
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and should be owned in 100% of leagues as he is a top 100 player. He’s a young Lindor.

8:21
Spud : In roto which pitcher would you prefer to own: Harvey or Matz?

8:21
Jeff Zimmerman: Harvey. Matz as no upside.

8:22
Philly fanatic: What are your thoughts on Pivetta for this season?  He gets the jump start now with the Eickhoff out for a month.  I’ve seen Pivetta on many sleeper lists

8:23
Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t but in as he needs to control the Walks and Home Runs. I could see one or the other but not both

8:23
Jeff Zimmerman: Mazara on upside

8:24
Mike: With the news of Kingery, what do you expect from him? 25/25, 20/20?

8:25
Jeff Zimmerman: 10/10 I’m worried about the playing time.

8:25
Oaktown: Will Matt Chapman be fantasy worthy in 2018?

8:25
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes. He’s replacement level in 12-teams and must own in anything bigger

8:26
Bobby G: Worth dropping Peacock to pick up Jack Flaherty?  Thanks.

8:26
Jeff Zimmerman: I might until Peacock is starting

8:26
James : Colin Moran or Stephen Piscotty for a last roster spot?

8:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Piscotty. I like his HR upside

8:26
Ben: Worth it to drop Cameron Maybin to pickup Chacin or Foltynewicz as a 5th starter in a 14 team league?  Do you have a preference?  Someone else I should look at?

8:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d keep Maybin for now. He may be tradable for steals later

8:27
Jafo: What the hell kind of league is Albies available? Do you play for vast sums of money and is there an opening?

8:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I know

8:27
Jz: Would you drop Lynn for Harvey in a h2h k/9 league?

8:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d hold onto Lynn

8:27
Brad Biggs, His Name is Brad Big: Thoughts on Amir Garrett? also what happened to the Haniger hype train? He wasn’t too shabby last year

8:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Garrett is a huge sleeper with a velo bump. I love Hanigar as a late round pick (which is his current price, why pay more).

8:28
Christine: Who would you pick up and hold onto, McMahon or Andujar?

8:29
Jeff Zimmerman: McMahon. Coors and more power.

8:29
John with an ‘h’ from Houston: Did I reach for Mike Clevinger? Snagged him in the 9th round of a 20-team dynasty draft. I thought it was pretty great, no?

8:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Might be a reach in Dynasty. Regression could hit him hard as his walks will be an issue.

8:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Heads up. I will normally just go an hour but he queue is loaded. I’m going to go for at least another 30 minutes.

8:30
Bobby G: Thanks Jeff.  Better option: Raimel Tapia or Derek Fisher?

8:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Fisher

8:30
CB: Vogelbach.  AL Rookie of the year?  Seriously though, there might be something here, especially in OBP formats right?

8:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not a fan at all after seeing him in the Fall League a few years back. DH only

8:31
Brett : In a 10 team H2H categories league with OPS, if you wait super late on SS in your draft who has the best potential to break out? I went with Ketel Marte (not so sure), but Arcia, Russell, Anderson, Cozart, Pereza, and Semien are all available. Any breakout SS?

8:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Russell … now

8:32
Glenn: What do you do with Dahl? Stash or drop?

8:32
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m tempted to drop, especially at OF.

8:32
Ken: With Brantley on DL to start season who would you recommend to pick up, Pirela or Dustin Fowler or Piscotty?

8:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Fowler … nice sleeper with upside

8:33
buccos: why are you targetting glasnow

8:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Late season changes in the minors which looked to give him some control. It might not stick but worth a shot

8:33
Jeff: When would you stash Kopech if you were desperate for pitching?

8:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Now, the White Sox normally don’t hold down pitching so I could see him up soon.

8:34
G-money: whats your take on my main man teoscar hernandez?

8:34
Jeff Zimmerman: I like him but he seems to be the odd man out in Toronto. I’m dropping in all but the deepest of leagues.

8:35
Ray: 12 team league. Need an of to replace Souza. Dyson worth about 5% of my faab?

8:36
Jeff Zimmerman: Might be but I’d go around 2%.

8:36
BooBoo: Are you buying the spring training strike out rate from Gallo, with the talk that he wanted to cut his strike outs? If so, do you think he could be a .240 avg guy?

8:37
Jeff Zimmerman: Not one bit. He’s a hacker and should stay that way

8:37
Happy Chappy: OBP Roto Deep Keeper.  Would you move Tatis jr. and Ozuna for Castellanos and Lindor?  My starting SS right now is Semien and I am looking to compete now.

8:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I love the Lindor side of this trade

8:37
Lone Ranger: Who closes in Texas?   Committee?

8:38
Jeff Zimmerman: Claudio to start with and then everyone gets a try. Long term, like Bush on talent and health

8:38
Mike: Better numbers at the end of the year: McMahon or Desmond?

8:38
Jeff Zimmerman: Desmond

8:38
Juice: Who do you like more this year Bour or Alonso?

8:38
Jeff Zimmerman: Alonso but quite a bit

8:39
Oak James : You like Jose Quintana or Aaron Nola more in a roto league?

8:39
Jeff Zimmerman: Ohhhhh….. Quintana. Really depends if the owners wants upside or safety.

8:40
Jeff: Do you have a favorite pitcher that is currently not in the top 40?

8:40
Jeff Zimmerman: Was Lamet

8:40
Jeff Zimmerman: I like Perdomo with SD’s new IF D

8:40
Mario mendoza : Do you think the wheels come off KHendricks?

8:41
Jeff Zimmerman: His fastball can’t lose any velo or he’s toast.

8:41
Andrew Triggskaidekaphobia: If I wanted to sell high on Kingery . . . is Conforto worth the risk?

8:41
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d make the trade for Conforto

8:41
Ryan: Have a 10 team roto league draft coming up with no bench or injury roster slots.  Is someone like Bumgarner draftable at any price?

8:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Not worth it at all

8:42
Quadrangular: you’re relatively high on Lamet. think there’s nice ERA upside hiding in there?

8:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Doesn’t matter now

8:42
Quadrangular: any thoughts on Chance Sisco in Baltimore?

8:42
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a catcher with no real carrying tool. Passing for now

8:42
VottomanEmpire: Parra/Fisher acceptable for a 5th OF timeshare in a 15-team mixed league?

8:43
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d hope a team could do better to start the season. I think Fisher is bench only until his role is defined

8:43
T. Smith: With Bird’s foot concern, should I jump on M. Olson, Bell, or Bour?

8:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Bell. He went flyball in spring training so he could be the next launch angle breakout

8:44
Jeff Zimmerman: 50% GB% last season

8:44
Larry Biggersby: Any interest in Carlos Tocci in an AL Only? Rule 5 means he might stick?

8:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Every warm body is playable in AL-only

8:44
einstein2u: alex reyes, will he make an impact this year? as a SP?

8:45
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve read a lot on this and it really depends on the needs of StL when he returns. If the rotation is set, he could close. If the rotation is struggling, he could start.

8:46
Jeff: You dropping Samardzija a lot?

8:46
Jeff Zimmerman: No, not a horrible return timeline

8:46
Vince Wagner: Will Austin Barnes get enough ABs this year to warrant ownership in an 11-team league?

8:46
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes. Catcher is so horrible that his stats will at least not drag a team down.

8:47
Jafo: Does Dominican Leone keep the close job or does Gregson take over as soon as he returns?

8:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Leone will keep it. He’s the better pitcher but who knows for sure in StL

8:48
pepper: how reliable do you believe Faria is to provide sub 4.00 ERA and reasonable whip?    seems like regression from last year likely.

8:49
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m a fan. His flyball nature will keep his BABIP low but will be HR prone at times.

8:49
srn: Am I going to get burned by a team of Mookie/Bellinger/Bregman/Albies/Buxton?

8:49
Jeff Zimmerman: No but I’m worried Buxton could provide zero value

8:50
Ted: Souza replacement in 15 team NFBC?  Fisher, Parra, J. Pederson, Forsyth, Joyce or Pinder?

8:50
Jeff Zimmerman: take a chance on Fisher

8:50
Lucky: I was able to draft Leone, Boxberger, & Givens as 3 of my RP’s in a draft three weeks ago.  All may land in the closer role, nice, huh??

8:51
Jeff Zimmerman: This is why I invest very little in closers. I have to churn a bit but the position is so volatile.

8:51
Juice: drafted Ohtani middle round as pitcher but am regretting it. Is it risky dropping him?

8:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Hold or trade with someone who still believes.

8:52
Brett : In an effort to pick up a RP for killer ratios/speculative saves (not a closer yet) who would your #1 choice be?  Also, if you could only drop hurt Turner or G Polanco to get that RP, who would you drop? I have K Jansen and that’s pretty much it for saves.

8:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Kela in Texas

8:52
TJ: Deep NL only keeper — looking for $1 SP who isn’t really a known prospect but could actually turn into something, even this year.  Lucchesi have that kind of moderate upside?  Other similar names?

8:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Amir Garrett?

8:53
Quadrangular: McCann or Martin a better temp option at C to start the year?

8:53
Jeff Zimmerman: McCann in AVG, Martin in OBP or points

8:53
Waiver wire: Who’s the better add – Perdomo or Pivetta???

8:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m biased on Perdomo but Pivetta will likely have more K’s

8:53
Kerosenedan: Does Eduardo Escobar have a chance to repeat or improve on last year now that he’s got a job?

8:54
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m hoping for similar production since I owned a ton of Polanco shares

8:54
PhillySouth: Need power in 10 team roto….pick up Chapman, drop Kingery?

8:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

8:55
Jz: 6×6 league, i punted saves in the draft, is it worth keeping guys like betances and minter over guys like Matz, Harvey or Claudio

8:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes IMO. Maybe just one of them. I cycle MR/setup men when one of my starters has a tough week. You might be able to move Claudio for another piece

8:56
FlawlessTomLawless: What’s your prediction on the season Adalberto Mondesi has this year?

8:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Rough, he hasn’t walked in ST yet.

8:57
Bernie Brewer: How’s this Braun, Santana, Thames, Cain and Yelich glut gonna work out?

8:58
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m just betting on Cain and Yelich and staying away from the rest for now

8:58
E.Banks: Kopech or Garrett for 15 team mixed stash?

8:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Kopech

8:58
3rd OF: Do you view Haniger or Altherr as a decent 3rd OF?  Risk in both, but Haniger was solid last year before injury.  I also feel Altherr may be playing everyday by May.

8:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Haniger for me

8:58
Mr. Met: Is Matt Harvey back?  Expectations?

8:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Doubt it, but we’ll find out soon

9:00
Jeff Zimmerman: OK, that’s it for tonight. I’ll be back next week at the same time and hopefully have a real game to watch during this chat.

We hoped you liked reading Sunday Night Fantasy Chat by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Brad
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Brad

This is great. No places I have found for good FAAB advice