Strikeout Stabilization: What Did We Learn In the First Month?

We’ve hit our first stabilization point! Said point being 60 plate appearances, officially rendering strikeout rate useful. Being an opportunistic sort of fellow, I am immediately diving into some analysis of early strikeout rates, as if the numbers are chiseled in granite since we passed that magical 60-plate appearance line.

The Whiffers – Five highest strikeout rates

Mike Zunino (39.4 K%) – On the plus side, Zunino is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than last season. On the not-plus side, he’s making less contact overall because he’s missing in the zone so much. That’s resulted in a league-worst swinging strike rate.

Making so little contact doesn’t automatically mean a player will fail – George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton and Joc Pederson are all succeeding at various levels with similar contact rates – but it isn’t ideal. And a player needs to make great contact when he does connect. Zunino isn’t doing that so far. His average HR + FB distance pales in comparison to the distances of that trio.

Zunino is prone to some especially contact-challenged stretches. He struck out more than 40 percent of the time in both June and August last season. He also has fantastic power at catcher, and barring announcement of an injury or some change in approach, his HR + FB distance should improve. I’d recommend being patient with Zunino unless you’re in a very shallow league.

Colby Rasmus (39.1) – This continues a trend from Rasmus. He’s made less contact and struck out more each of the past five seasons. You know what you’re getting with Rasmus by this point.

Adam LaRoche (37.8) – Striking out this much through the first month isn’t a brand new thing for LaRoche. While he didn’t approach this strikeout rate at any point last season, he lugged a 32.6 K% through April in 2013. Of course, that may have been the worst full season of his career. If you’re looking for solace in his transition to the AL, sorry: It doesn’t appear switching leagues causes players to slump early and then improve. LaRoche’s contact and swinging strike rates are worse than anything he’s produced in his career. At 35, a rebound is possible, but it is looking more and more unlikely.

Jorge Soler (36.3) – Soler’s tallied almost exactly as many plate appearances in 2015 as he did last season, but they’ve looked much, much different. Pitchers are throwing him fewer fastballs and fewer pitches in the zone overall. Unfortunately, he’s swinging at about the same rate, leading to a drop in contact. Soler needs to adjust to how pitchers have adjusted to him. If you believed he was a good enough hitter to draft, continue to believe he can make the adjustments.

Chris Davis (35.8) – Nothing major to see here. Davis’ career strikeout rate is 31.2. His swinging strike and contact numbers look to be right in line with what’s expected.

The Whiffless – Five lowest strikeout rates

Ender Inciarte (4.8) – Inciarte’s hot start has him starting almost every game and hitting atop the Diamondbacks’ lineup. He’s making a ton of contact and his swinging strike rate is tied for seventh in baseball. Still, the strikeout rate doesn’t quite fit with what we’ve seen from him before. His lowest rate was 9.1 in Double-A and he struck out 11.9 percent of the time last season. It’s possible he made a change in approach that will help the reduced rate stick. As Alex Chamberlain pointed out, Inciarte was doing this in the spring too. In addition to batting average, Inciarte could be a nice asset in steals. He stole 19 bases in 118 games last season and has three so far in 2015.

Andrelton Simmons (5.7) – This one is tougher to believe. Simmons’ plate discipline numbers look to be on par with his career figures, which have led to a career 9.4 K%. He’s also produced some seriously low strikeout rates over a monthly split before, like April 2014 when he struck out 3.2 percent of the time. Don’t adjust your value of Simmons based on the past month of strikeouts.

Daniel Murphy (5.9) – Murphy’s swinging strike rate is the second-best in baseball, which is a great start on the way to posting an impressive strikeout rate. Despite a BB/K that nearly triples his career figure, he’s still hitting .208 thanks to a BABIP more than a hundred points below his career rate. While his plate discipline might not continue at quite the pace he’s set, Murphy still makes a great buy-low option.

Freddy Galvis (6.4) – Galvis will not continue to strike out at a rate this low. He’s not missing much yet, but he is swinging at more pitches outside the zone than almost anyone in baseball.

Nolan Arenado (7.5) – Arenado has made incremental improvements almost universally in plate discipline this season. The one big jump comes in his aggressiveness on pitches in the strike zone, where he’s now swinging at one of the highest rates in baseball. He’s a good hitter who appears to be getting better.





Adam McFadden contributes to RotoGraphs when he's not working as a sports editor at MSN. His writing has appeared online for FOX Sports and Sports Illustrated.

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STC
8 years ago

Good stuff Adam, thanks.