Justin Maxwell Cuts Down, Heats Up

For the first time in years, Justin Maxwell is in demand.

OK, so it’s not a crazy, opening-scene-of-a-Beatles-movie demand, but still, his ownership has jumped 20% in CBS leagues in the past week, and for good reason: He’s off to a hot start. He has an .843 OPS entering Friday’s play, and, for about a week after wrestling away the starting rightfielder job in San Francisco from Gregor Blanco, he had been tattooing the ball with a .333/.407/.833 slash line before he ran into two guys named Kershaw and Greinke. He’s been blasting line drives at a 34.2% clip, the fly ball rate is back to a healthy percentage, and although it’s a young season, his average batted ball distance of nearly 300 feet backs up his 20% HR/FB ratio.

Yes, this is just a hot streak, and Maxwell faces a cutback in playing time once Hunter Pence, recovering from a forearm fracture, is ready to regain his starting job. But then again:

Bochy also said Maxwell will play once Pence returns if he keeps hitting like this. Sounds like Aoki would lose starts. #sfgiants

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) April 26, 2015

Let’s make sure we’re on the board early with the obvious disclaimer: We’re talking about just 57 plate appearances, a microscopic sample size, and he’s been a full-time player for less than two weeks. He’s also, of course, a 31-year-old journeyman who has only been a major league regular just once (2012), he’s struck out in nearly a third of his career plate appearances and he’s the owner of a measly .226 lifetime average.

But … he does have some pop. He smashed 18 home runs in 2012 and has a nearly .200 career ISO, and even during his 0-for-4 performance on Wednesday, he crushed two fly balls to the warning track in Dodger Stadium that were contained only because he hit them to straightaway center field. (Or, as another Maxwell might say, he missed it by that much.)

The power is legit. The question with Maxwell has always been whether he could be adequate in enough other areas of his offensive game to make it matter. So far, at least, he’s been more selective with his swings and not chasing pitches out of the strike zone:

PERIOD	BB%	K%	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	Contact%	Zone%	F-Strike%	SwStr%
2015	8.8	22.8	22.7	72.7	45	67.4	44.4	54.4	15.1
Career	10.2	31.6	29.5	70.8	48.2	66.7	45.2	63.5	15.8

Much of the improvement owes to him laying off low pitches …

… or, more specifically, some restraint against breaking balls:

Again, a very small sample size, though plate discipline stabilizes fairly quickly, and if we’re searching for positive indicators, it’s a sign, perhaps, that he’s trying to change his approach at the plate.

Playing time is the other obvious question. We know that Pence has a home in right field whenever he’s ready. Angel Pagan, who’s been killing the ball, is the centerfielder. Nori Aoki has a .392 OBP. Even Brandon Belt has started a game in left field as the team looks to give Buster Posey an occasional breather at first base, and postseason hero Travis Ishikawa, currently on the DL with back soreness, is also on the 40-man roster.

Then again, the 33-year-old Pagan has missed large chunks of the past two seasons with various ailments, and although Pence was baseball’s reigning iron man entering spring training, we don’t know whether the forearm injury will linger or require occasional rest.

But Pence is probably at least two weeks away from returning, and as far as Maxwell’s playing time is concerned in the immediate term, he’s not at terrible risk of losing at-bats to Blanco in right field, especially with catches like this:

And this:

No, one hot streak does not a fantasy star make, but players with Maxwell’s power are a rare commodity in NL-only leagues, where he’s already a viable option, and he could be worth a look in some deeper mixed formats as well so long as he’s got a regular job.

We’ll see if he can continue to hit well enough to steal at-bats away from Aoki when Pence returns, and whether, at age 31, we’re actually seeing a new, restrained Justin Maxwell at the plate. It may well be too soon to draw any firm conclusions from a couple of good weeks, but it’s certainly something worth keeping an eye on.