Starting Pitchers Rising in NFBC Main Event Drafts
It’s Main Event season!! For the unaware, the Main Event is the high-stakes marquee contest over at the NFBC where everyone competes in 15-team leagues but also in one giant 700+ team league against everyone. If you want to get into the NFBC but don’t quite want to jump into the Main just yet, they have leagues at all sorts of price points to get started. This is not an ad, but I’m a huge fan of the NFBC so I’m happy to gas them up to anyone looking to get into the mix!
Anyway, with the Mains rolling I wanted to take a look at who’s moving up so far. Starting pitching is notoriously priced up in Main Events as teams don’t want to be left short on the mound and as injuries pile up in spring, a lot of managers start to move their favorite SPs up the board. I took a look at the first 3 Main Events and compared SP prices to the Rotowire Online Championship leagues which is a 12-team format that functions similarly to the Main. It’s at a lower price point so there are far more teams, but it has that same overall component that makes these NFBC events so unique.
I broke things down by pick range instead of just looking at the biggest movers overall or else all 15 guys would’ve been from the later rounds. Without further ado, 15 significant SP risers through 3 Mains (there has been a 4th since I pulled the data, but I’d already made my charts and everything so I didn’t get it into the mix):
| Rank | Name | Team | ADP | Pick Jump | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | 35 | 8 | Picks 1-50 | Early drafters aren’t concerned by deGrom’s velo dip in spring as he’s said it’s purposeful in an effort to help him stay healthy |
| 2 | Blake Snell | LAD | 40 | 8 | Picks 1-50 | New teammate Tyler Glasnow was t-3rd in IP/GS last yr (6.3); could Snell (5.7) see a similar rise w/his new team? |
| 3 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | 79 | 18 | Picks 51-100 | OK this one annoys me, get y’all’s hands off my Bibee! Not sure this trend holds and isn’t just small sample noise |
| 4 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 81 | 11 | Picks 51-100 | This feels like a long-time bankable stud moving up in typical Main Event fashion |
| 5 | Hunter Brown | HOU | 95 | 12 | Picks 51-100 | “Rising Young Stud” is another pitcher class that gets boosted in Main Event season |
| 6 | Bryan Woo | SEA | 114 | 14 | Picks 101-150 | Talent is obvious with health as the primary concern, given how difficult it is to predict health I can see folks taking the plunge |
| 7 | Robbie Ray | SFG | 122 | 13 | Picks 101-150 | Former Cy Young in a great park learning a changeup from the reigning Cy Young has folks hyped and I totally get it! |
| 8 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | 125 | 13 | Picks 101-150 | Insane Spring Training is driving the hype bc if he adds Ks to the elite control profile we saw last yr, he’s a 3rd stud for Philly |
| 9 | Taj Bradley | TBR | 178 | 17 | Picks 151-200 | REALLY want to be in on this, but I’m getting cold feet bc of minor league park… it has me tapping the brakes on all my TB faves |
| 10 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 190 | 25 | Picks 151-200 | I’m not entirely sure I can make heads or tails of this one… nothing against Eovaldi, but he’s a WYSIWYG kinda guy |
| 11 | Drew Rasmussen | TBR | 193 | 47 | Picks 151-200 | I get it in terms of pure talent per-inning, but again that park gives me pause w/blasting Taj, Pep, Ras, and the Shanes up my board |
| 12 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | 206 | 30 | Picks 201-250 | Could just be as simple as him debuting in spring this wk after a late start; coming off a fantastic half season last yr |
| 13 | Reese Olson | DET | 215 | 22 | Picks 201-250 | Not just being a homer, but I didn’t really understand why he was so low to begin with so the rise doesn’t shock me |
| 14 | Nick Martinez | CIN | 272 | 45 | Picks 251-300 | He was awesome last yr, but still had a sharp home/road split in both ERA (4.00/2.18) and WHIP (1.29/0.75)… not buying this surge |
| 15 | Kris Bubic | KCR | 283 | 29 | Picks 251-300 | Excellent 2H as RP last yr (28% K-BB) has folks duly excited about return to SP; might need another boost in my SP ranks |
I’ve been on the Bubic hype train longer than most, and even I’m a little confused why he’s been pushed up so much this spring. He has traits that *I* value, but the market usually ignores these characteristics.
I guess the explanation doesn’t have to be complicated. He was surprisingly good in 3 2023 starts (I traded Bassitt for him after his second start…woof!), then he came back with more (still below avg) velo and strong results out of the bullpen–possibly confirming the 2023 flash as “real.” It seems to be repertoire driven, anybody can see he started throwing a slider, and good things happened. If he had the same results and a 4.50 ERA, then there wouldn’t be any movement on his draft slot.
I think it’s as simple as a 15% SwStr in his last 46 MLB IP plus a 14% in spring so far while playing in a solid park w/an amazing defense behind him