Starting Pitchers ADP Market Report: 3/4/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

Zach Plesac (-10.79)- Plesac is one of the most polarizing players this year and that is likely the reason for his drop. He had a breakout season in which he had a 2.28 ERA and over a strike out an inning in 55.1 innings. The best part is he did this in just eight innings, which means even if he regreses, he should rack up a ton of innings. The question is can he maintain the gains in the walk and home run rates. He showed great control, but he doesn’t grade better than average in command +. I tend to believe he definitely took a step forward, but I am not willing to pay a top 25 SP price until I see more. 

Framber Valdez (-11.91)- This one may be a moot point now that Valdez has injured his finger which may require season ending surgery. He should drop a ton and likely won’t be worth anything this year. 

Top 200 Players Rising

Joe Musgrove (+16.52)- Musgrove continues to rise as draft season progresses. He had a late season surge that came on the back of a velocity game and now no longer a sleeper, but a popular target that is moving towards the top 30 in terms of starting pitcher. In the last month of the season, he had a 2.16 ERA, a .92 WHIP and 38.8% strikeout rate. The question is whether it is legit this time or not. While the swinging strikeout rate went up to 14.4%, he is likely not going to have a 30+% strikeout rate, but I don’t expect it to drop back to a 20-23% rate either. Usually when a guy has a great final month they are somewhat hidden by a 162 game season, but since a month is half the 2020 season, there is no discount.

Top 200 Players Falling

Dinelson Lamet (-29.05)- Lament continues to drop with concerns about his ability to hold up throughout the season after ending last year on the IL. Once we see him pitch in spring, he is likely to raise back up, but I won’t be investing at this price or anything near it. 

Dylan Bundy (-12.59)- Bundy is dropping after concerns about the way he finished 2020. He had reduced velocity in his final two starts and it showed in the results. His first spring start was good and if he builds on that in his next spring outing, he should start trending back up. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jose Urquidy (+17.28)- After starting the season late, Urquidy is retaining some of that sleeper status he had coming into 2020. He has four usable pitches that all are average to above average and decent command. He is locked into a rotation spot in Houston with no real competition even if he struggles. The strikeouts should tick back up to where they were in 2020 around 23%. He is a pretty decent investment as a guy that could take the next step, but still has a decent floor. 

Jamison Taillon (+22.25)- Now that Taillon has signed in New York his price is rising. While the park and division change isn’t helpful, he is on a much better team and appears to be healthy right now. However, he has a long history of injuries and has only pitched a total of 37.1 innings in total over the last two years. There is a ton of risk here, but when he is on the mound, Taillon is a very good pitcher. 

Marcus Stroman (+19.23)- Stroman is perpetually underrated, but people are starting to clue into the fact he is going too low. Stroman opted out in 2020, but was fantastic in 2019, especially after being traded to the Mets. He has a great home park with a good offense to support him and is working on a split finger change that could help sustain the strikeout gains we saw at the end of 2020. I love Stroman as a high floor guy, but I think there is more upside in him than some others do. 

Nate Pearson (+16.55)- Pearson’s rise will be short lived as he strained his groin recently and may not be ready for Opening Day. That being said, it is not an arm injury and the groin strain is a Grade 1 strain, so he should be able to recover fairly quickly as long as he doesn’t reinjure it. He is the former top pitching prospect in baseball and some have been too quick to write him off for 2021. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Dustin May (-61.75)- Dustin May is falling due to concerns about his role in 2021. The signing of Trevor Bauer likely pushes him back to AAA to start the season. He has a ton of talent, but he needs an injury or a trade to get back into the rotation. 

Christian Javier (-12.93)- Javier is another prospect that people are beginning to fade and I tend to agree with him. I like the fastball/slider combo that he has, but he lacks a third pitch he is comfortable throwing. I expect him to get a shot at starting, but until he develops a third pitch that he can use more, his future is likely in the bullpen.