Starting Pitcher Streamers For Thursday 9/25

And we’re back to our new regularly scheduled programming of starting pitcher streamer recommendations for games one day in advance. Thankfully, tonight offers a solid slate of options.

Jeremy Hellickson @ BOS

Hellickson’s strikeout rate is up for a third season in a row, but because he has been unable to rediscover his BABIP suppression magic, his ERA has been significantly higher these past two years versus his previous two. This is what Hellickson looks like with neutral luck and it’s the very definition of a streamer in a 12-team mixed league. His bread and butter, the changeup, has been fantastic as usual, inducing swinging strikes at a robust 21.7% clip. His fastball stinks as usual, while his curve ball is about average.

One typically perceives the Red Sox as always having a strong offense. But that hasn’t been the case this year, as they rank a surprising 27th in baseball in runs scored and 22nd in wOBA. Opposing the weakly skilled Allen Webster offers a pretty good chance at a win.

David Buchanan @ MIA

The 25-year-old right-hander was a no-name heading into the season. In fact, he was never even mentioned in an article on these pages until the end of August when Jeff Zimmerman shared his scouting opinion with us. After watching him pitch, Zimmerman left feeling that nothing in regards to his pitches stuck out, but he was a ground ball machine, likening him to Doug Fister. And that’s precisely what his minor league record suggests. He has never posted a strikeout rate above 18.1%, while his walk rates remained in a tight range between 6.3% and 8.6%.

He doesn’t throw hard (his fastball averages just 90.3 mph), but knowing this, he has thrown it just about 40% of the time. Instead, he pumps in cutters and changeups, while also mixing in the occasional curve ball. The changeup has been fantastic, generating a SwStk% of 20.7%, but the rest of his repertoire has failed to induce a whole lot of swings and misses. His two-seam fastball and curve have induced tons of grounders though. Because of the low strikeout ceiling, his fantasy potential is limited, but he’s facing a barren Marlins lineup in a pitcher’s park. It should be a good matchup for his ratios.

David Hale vs PIT

With the announcement that Mike Minor is done for the season, Hale is set to make the start in his spot on Thursday. He made two starts for the Braves last year in his MLB debut, and surprised us all by striking out 14 batters, while walking just one, in 11.0 innings. That strikeout rate was totally out of line with his minor league career, so it was hard to believe he was suddenly a strikeout pitcher. But regression has caused his strikeout rate to roll over to the opposite extreme, as he has barely struck out more batters than he has walked. That’s curious though given that both his curve ball and changeup have induced swinging strikes at a better than league average clip. It’s certainly not the set of SwStk% marks you would expect to see from a guy sporting a measly 11.1% K%.

So I don’t think you should be scared away by the low strikeout rate and since he induces gobs of grounders, the potential is there for a pretty interesting overall skill set. He hasn’t started a game since June 28, though, and he lasted just five innings, despite allowing just a run and five base runners. So a win may be hard to come by.

Yusmeiro Petit vs SD

Since moving back into the Giants rotation, Petit has made five starts, and yet somehow he’s still owned in just 41% of CBS leagues. Of course, the 3.73 ERA he has posted over those starts doesn’t scream to owners that they must rush out to pick him up. But the 2.27 xFIP does. As does the ridiculous 38/4 K/BB ratio in 31.1 innings.

Once a soft-tossing extreme fly ball pitcher with questionable strikeout potential, Petit has reinvented himself. For the second straight season, his curve ball has been insane, generating a SwStk% of 28.2%. The rest of his pitch mix is about average in terms of generating swings and misses, so it’s essentially been the curve that has fueled his strikeout rate surge. Since it’s now been about 160 innings of this, we have to take the results of the pitch seriously at this point. He’ll be pitching at home versus a weak Padres offense, so it doesn’t get much better than this.