Starting Pitcher Chart – September 7th
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I did today’s slate for this one and it’s a little late (though no games have started), but I will aim to have these out for the following day either night before or early the day-of. I’m still marinating on ideas for the weekend as I won’t be able to commit to separate Saturday & Sunday ones due to time.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | TOR | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 36% K-BB | .333 – 7th | Auto-start obviously |
| Blake Snell | SDP | LAA | x | x | x | 1.71 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 34% K-BB | .298 – 21st | Out of his mind lately |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | at MIL | x | x | x | 4.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .349 – 2nd | Little bumpy of late, but easy auto start |
| Max Fried | ATL | WAS | x | x | x | 1.91 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .346 – 11th | Enjoying a dominant run since ASB |
| Eric Lauer | MIL | PHI | x | x | x | 2.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .313 – 18th | Quietly rolling since mid-June |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | TEX | x | x | x | 3.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .320 – 15th | Still very startable despite bumpy road |
| Carlos Carrasco | NYM | at MIA | x | x | x | 7.97 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .278 – 28th | Good matchup & solid in L3 |
| Aaron Civale | CLE | MIN | x | x | x | 3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .334 – 6th | Rolling w/him in 1st start off IL |
| Jake Odorizzi | HOU | SEA | x | x | x | 2.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .299 – 22nd | Basically a 5-and-dive but good matchup |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | TBR | x | x | x | 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .383 – 2nd | 2 gems v. TB within L5 |
| Logan Webb | SFG | at COL | x | x | 1.08 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .298 – 23rd | It’s Coors, but I’m going for it | |
| Steven Matz | TOR | at NYY | x | x | 2.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .308 – 19th | Ks have dried up, but still gambling here | |
| Wade Miley | CIN | at CHC | x | x | 3.90 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .358 – 6th | CHC hitting vL of late, be careful | |
| Edward Cabrera | MIA | NYM | x | x | 5.23 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .325 – 14th | One up, one down so far in MLB career | |
| James Kaprielian | OAK | CWS | x | x | 5.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .335 – 5th | Might be hitting rookie wall, be careful | |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at BOS | x | 1.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .366 – 1st | Only 1 start reaching 5 IP | ||
| Wily Peralta | DET | at PIT | x | 3.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .276 – 30th | Great matchup, but Ks are brutal | ||
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | at HOU | x | 7.99 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .329 – 9th | Also hitting that rookie wall | ||
| John Gant | MIN | at CLE | 7.30 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .331 – 8th | Only 3 starts w/MIN… I don’t trust him | |||
| Jackson Kowar | KCR | at BAL | 9.82 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .336 – 4th | Gem on 9/1 after return, but still passing | |||
| Alexander Wells | BAL | KCR | 9.00 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .327 – 16th | Only 3 starts, none of ’em good | |||
| Paolo Espino | WAS | at ATL | 5.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .315 – 16th | Some decent Ks, but I’m passing | |||
| Adrian Sampson 샘슨 | CHC | CIN | 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 40% K-BB | .327 – 12th | Only 1 start of 3.3 perfect IP so far | |||
| J.A. Happ | STL | LAD | 4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .322 – 17th | Last start (1 IP/7 ER) highlights the risk | |||
| Chi Chi González | COL | SFG | 8.31 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .305 – 20th | Nope. | |||
| Spencer Howard | TEX | at ARI | 7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .303 – 21st | Hasn’t made it 5 IP this year (7 starts) | |||
| Packy Naughton | LAA | at SDP | 3.38 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .283 – 29th | Has 1 GS & 1 extended relief app. |
BTW, Webb was supposed to be all three league formats. Didn’t mean to leave him off 10-teamers. Just rolling w/him anywhere I have him
Great idea, thanks – very useful addition to the daily analysis I’ve already been doing for my guys.