Starting Pitcher Chart – September 7th
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I did today’s slate for this one and it’s a little late (though no games have started), but I will aim to have these out for the following day either night before or early the day-of. I’m still marinating on ideas for the weekend as I won’t be able to commit to separate Saturday & Sunday ones due to time.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | TOR | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 36% K-BB | .333 – 7th | Auto-start obviously |
| Blake Snell | SDP | LAA | x | x | x | 1.71 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 34% K-BB | .298 – 21st | Out of his mind lately |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | at MIL | x | x | x | 4.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .349 – 2nd | Little bumpy of late, but easy auto start |
| Max Fried | ATL | WAS | x | x | x | 1.91 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .346 – 11th | Enjoying a dominant run since ASB |
| Eric Lauer | MIL | PHI | x | x | x | 2.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .313 – 18th | Quietly rolling since mid-June |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | TEX | x | x | x | 3.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .320 – 15th | Still very startable despite bumpy road |
| Carlos Carrasco | NYM | at MIA | x | x | x | 7.97 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .278 – 28th | Good matchup & solid in L3 |
| Aaron Civale | CLE | MIN | x | x | x | 3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .334 – 6th | Rolling w/him in 1st start off IL |
| Jake Odorizzi | HOU | SEA | x | x | x | 2.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .299 – 22nd | Basically a 5-and-dive but good matchup |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | TBR | x | x | x | 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .383 – 2nd | 2 gems v. TB within L5 |
| Logan Webb | SFG | at COL | x | x | 1.08 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .298 – 23rd | It’s Coors, but I’m going for it | |
| Steven Matz | TOR | at NYY | x | x | 2.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .308 – 19th | Ks have dried up, but still gambling here | |
| Wade Miley | CIN | at CHC | x | x | 3.90 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .358 – 6th | CHC hitting vL of late, be careful | |
| Edward Cabrera | MIA | NYM | x | x | 5.23 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .325 – 14th | One up, one down so far in MLB career | |
| James Kaprielian | OAK | CWS | x | x | 5.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .335 – 5th | Might be hitting rookie wall, be careful | |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at BOS | x | 1.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .366 – 1st | Only 1 start reaching 5 IP | ||
| Wily Peralta | DET | at PIT | x | 3.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .276 – 30th | Great matchup, but Ks are brutal | ||
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | at HOU | x | 7.99 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .329 – 9th | Also hitting that rookie wall | ||
| John Gant | MIN | at CLE | 7.30 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .331 – 8th | Only 3 starts w/MIN… I don’t trust him | |||
| Jackson Kowar | KCR | at BAL | 9.82 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .336 – 4th | Gem on 9/1 after return, but still passing | |||
| Alexander Wells | BAL | KCR | 9.00 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .327 – 16th | Only 3 starts, none of ’em good | |||
| Paolo Espino | WAS | at ATL | 5.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .315 – 16th | Some decent Ks, but I’m passing | |||
| Adrian Sampson 샘슨 | CHC | CIN | 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 40% K-BB | .327 – 12th | Only 1 start of 3.3 perfect IP so far | |||
| J.A. Happ | STL | LAD | 4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .322 – 17th | Last start (1 IP/7 ER) highlights the risk | |||
| Chi Chi González | COL | SFG | 8.31 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .305 – 20th | Nope. | |||
| Spencer Howard | TEX | at ARI | 7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .303 – 21st | Hasn’t made it 5 IP this year (7 starts) | |||
| Packy Naughton | LAA | at SDP | 3.38 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .283 – 29th | Has 1 GS & 1 extended relief app. |
BTW, Webb was supposed to be all three league formats. Didn’t mean to leave him off 10-teamers. Just rolling w/him anywhere I have him
Great idea, thanks – very useful addition to the daily analysis I’ve already been doing for my guys.
I like this! Thank you!
Very much appreciated Paul
2 thumbs up!
This would be very useful if out each day. Last column is especially helpful coming from you 🙂
It’s called doing it on you’re own. Is it truly that time consuming to look up the daily starters and post there recent stats with a sentence of “Advice” . No ya don’t need that sentence the stats should be easily enough to read and use. 7 games to 14 games prior shows stats and gets ya enough info to tell ya if they running hot or not. Only things ya need to read are of someone reports changed windup, pitches, teams, opportunities ect. Even those aren’t hard to figure out. I’m just dumbfounded people can’t research on there own. I’m in a 20 team league and have won it the past 2 seasons. Reason why? I take time to do my due diligence in research and not trust someone who posts someone else’s info just to get job done
Not everybody has that kind of time between work, family, and other commitments so having a go-to guide helps. It’s great that you can put in the time and it helps you do well, but ppl with less time play the game, too.
Agreed. And even for those of us who do most of this already, it’s always nice to have another voice in the room.
Wish I would have seen this earlier. Could have been helpful in assessing who to draft in my Draftkings lineups.
Love this! If it’s available the day before, even better. Lots of streaming going on in my league right now for H2H playoffs. Thanks!
And so of course Naughton comes out and smokes Snell. Baseball, you’ve got to love it.
Terrific stuff, Paul! Very useful.
Wanted to just chime in and say THANK YOU – I know this list is probably a huge pain to put together but oh my god this is exactly what I need as we close out the year (and how much do we have to pay for a subscription that would be enough to hire someone to do this every day in 2022…am i kidding? I don’t know)