Starting Pitcher Chart – September 6th, 2022
by Paul Sporer
September 6, 2022
I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful so it’s time to bring back the Daily SP Chart!
The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues. These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Let’s go secure some titles!
Tuesday Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | MIN | R | x | x | x | 2.16 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .298 – 19th | Has 5 starts of 5+ ER, but went 6+ in 4 of ’em mitigating the damage |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | TEX | L | x | x | x | 2.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .354 – 6th | Reeled off five straight Wins in August |
| Kyle Wright | ATL | at OAK | R | x | x | x | 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .286 – 23rd | Great chance to stay hot (3 ER in last 26 IP) |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | MIA | R | x | x | x | 4.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 28% K-BB | .272 – 28th | 8 ER v. upstart ARI lineup that has been crushing vR (111 wRC+ in L3) |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | BOS | R | x | x | x | 1.59 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 28% K-BB | .336 – 3rd | Hasn’t allowed >3 ER in L11: 1.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP |
| Shane Bieber | CLE | at KCR | R | x | x | x | 1.83 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .302 – 17th | Has allowed just 10 ER in 7 starts since 6 ER at CWS out of the break |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | at PHI | L | x | x | x | 2.87 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .377 – 3rd | Tough draw, but he’s been too good to sit |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | SDP | R | x | x | x | 2.78 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .323 – 7th | Quietly continuing to have just a fantastic season |
| Johnny Cueto | CWS | at SEA | R | x | x | x | 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .306 – 15th | It’s become clear that a bad start v. ARI isn’t a sign of trouble |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | CWS | R | x | x | x | 4.61 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .314 – 10th | Has fully rebounded from the 2 duds v. NYY |
| Joe Musgrove | SDP | ARI | R | x | x | x | 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .333 – 4th | ARI is dangerous vR, but not enough to sit someone this good |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | TOR | R | x | x | x | 2.64 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .297 – 20th | Toting just a 2.66 ERA in 40.7 IP since return from IL |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | at NYY | R | x | x | x | 4.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .253 – 30th | Nerve-wracking matchup, but they’ve been SO bad lately |
| Jose Quintana | STL | WAS | L | x | x | x | 3.86 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .309 – 17th | Surviving the BABIP regression w/StL |
| Tyler Anderson | LAD | SFG | L | x | x | x | 1.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .332 – 10th | 1 of 27 SPs with a 60%+ QS rate (61%) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | at LAA | L | x | x | x | 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .276 – 27th | SEA got him a bit last time out, but this matchup is worth the shot |
| Taijuan Walker | NYM | at PIT | R | x | x | x | 6.98 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .263 – 29th | Has 3.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 4 GS since 1 IP/8 ER dud v. ATL |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | at COL | R | x | x | x | 3.68 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .313 – 16th (at Coors) | He’s part of the club I’d still start at Coors |
| Mike Mayers | LAA | DET | R | x | x | 4.98 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .281 – 25th | Stats are from 3 relief app. & 2 starts; DET unlikely to leverage his HR issue | |
| Cole Irvin | OAK | ATL | L | x | 4.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .385 – 2nd | Remarkably difficult matchup will test his 1.94 home ERA | ||
| Mitch White | TOR | at BAL | R | x | 7.04 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .307 – 13th | Poor fastball leaves him susceptible to blowups | ||
| Justin Dunn | CIN | at CHC | R | x | 4.63 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .302 – 18th | Showing some flashes of late: 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12% K-BB in 15 IP | ||
| Rich Hill | BOS | at TBR | L | 5.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .314 – 15th | Has only made it 5 IP in 9 of 20 starts | |||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | NYM | R | 4.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .336 – 4th | Too volatile to stream in this tough of a matchup | |||
| Glenn Otto | TEX | at HOU | R | 3.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .292 – 22nd | Upside limited by 5 IP cap, mistakes also magnified | |||
| Paolo Espino | WAS | at STL | R | 4.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .361 – 1st | Been OK of late, but StL is way too scary to risk it | |||
| Kris Bubic | KCR | CLE | L | 6.12 ERA, 2.08 ERA, 3% K-BB | .293 – 22nd | Downside is too severe for me | |||
| Wade Miley | CHC | CIN | L | 2.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .325 – 12th | First start since June 10th | |||
| Chad Kuhl | COL | MIL | R | 10.02 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .293 – 21st | It has to be SO hard to pitch in that park |
BASEBALL FUN
I tried to take the Baltimore Orioles to the playoffs in Out of the Park Baseball 23: