Starting Pitcher Chart – September 3rd, 2024
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I ended up using the holiday as a chance to go to sleep early hence no SP chart last night, but I can’t leave y’all hanging for Tuesday!
Brady Singer has been more good than bad of late w/a 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 18% K-BB since July 1st though that elevated WHIP hints at how the bad starts during the run have been particularly bad. During the 11 starts, he has 7 starts w/an average of 65 Game Score (which is really good), but the other 4 are at a 33 average. So there’s a big range here which does make him a little scary down the stretch, but I still have a hard time finding too many sits.
SEA is a great Rx for any starter in need of gem so Jeffrey Springs’s 5 IP of 1-hit ball with 9 Ks was a welcomed sight and he now has 5 IP in 4 of his L5.
The results for Kutter Crawford are better of late — 3.71 ERA, 0.94 WHIP — but the meager 7% K-BB tells me the .200 BABIP is doing a looottt of the heavy lifting there. There’s upside, there’s decent W potential, but there’s definitely real downside so be careful!
Cade Povich’s insane schedule (NYY 2x, HOU, LAD, CLE, BOS, ATL) explains some of the lagging #s so he deserves this outing v. CHW.
I don’t even really trust Walker Buehler that much v. LAA… he just doesn’t look right and I’m not sure an easy matchup will necessarily help that.
David Peterson threw another gem, this time at ARI, giving him a 1.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP combo in 6 August starts (38.7 IP) and it wasn’t like he just smoked bad teams with 3 great teams, a brutally tough venue in Coors, and an upstart offense with OAK accounting for 5 of the 6: at LAA, at COL, OAK, BAL, SDP, at ARI.
Kyle Harrison is a pure lottery ticket play, especially as well as Arizona is playing in the second half.
I still love Reid Detmers, but can’t start him here v. LAD; if he’s good, I can see the at MIN being usable next wk.
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK L30/Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Sale | ATL v COL | x | x | x | 153 | 2.58 | 1.02 | 27% | 25th/23rd |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT at CHC | x | x | x | 109 | 2.23 | 0.95 | 26% | 8th/16th |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | SEA at OAK | x | x | x | 165 | 3.65 | 1.17 | 18% | 15th/20th |
| 4 | Tanner Bibee | CLE at KCR | x | x | x | 143 | 3.65 | 1.13 | 21% | 3rd/11th |
| 5 | Ryne Nelson | ARI at SFG | x | x | x | 136 | 4.22 | 1.28 | 14% | 27th/24th |
| 6 | Carlos Rodón | NYY at TEX | x | x | x | 146 | 4.31 | 1.25 | 18% | 29th/22nd |
| 7 | Brady Singer | KCR v CLE | x | x | x | 152 | 3.36 | 1.24 | 17% | 25th/21st |
| 8 | Jeffrey Springs | TBR v MIN | x | x | x | 27 | 3.67 | 1.44 | 20% | 12th/8th |
| 9 | David Festa | MIN at TBR | x | x | 42 | 4.89 | 1.20 | 22% | 29th/29th | |
| 10 | Kutter Crawford | BOS at NYM | x | x | 155 | 4.12 | 1.10 | 16% | 16th/10th | |
| 11 | Chris Bassitt | TOR v PHI | x | x | 151 | 4.27 | 1.40 | 14% | 23rd/12th | |
| 12 | Cade Povich | BAL v CHW | x | x | 52 | 6.58 | 1.73 | 4% | 30th/30th | |
| 13 | Walker Buehler | LAD at LAA | x | 49 | 5.88 | 1.63 | 9% | 30th/27th | ||
| 14 | Patrick Corbin | WSN at MIA | x | 147 | 5.50 | 1.51 | 10% | 13th/29th | ||
| 15 | David Peterson | NYM v BOS | x | 92 | 2.83 | 1.32 | 8% | 24th/15th | ||
| 16 | Kyle Harrison | SFG v ARI | x | 121 | 4.22 | 1.31 | 14% | 4th/2nd | ||
| 17 | Aaron Civale | MIL v STL | x | 135 | 4.59 | 1.34 | 14% | 22nd/14th | ||
| 18 | Reid Detmers | LAA v LAD | 63 | 6.14 | 1.48 | 16% | 9th/3rd | |||
| 19 | Andrew Heaney | TEX v NYY | 134 | 3.95 | 1.24 | 17% | 7th/12th | |||
| 20 | Tyler Phillips | PHI at TOR | 36 | 5.50 | 1.22 | 13% | 6th/13th | |||
| 21 | Max Meyer | MIA v WSN | 51 | 5.44 | 1.38 | 10% | 9th/17th | |||
| 22 | Steven Matz | STL at MIL | 27 | 6.18 | 1.73 | 5% | 5th/9th | |||
| 23 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC v PIT | 102 | 6.75 | 1.53 | 8% | 19th/28th | |||
| 24 | Kyle Freeland | COL at ATL | 85 | 5.51 | 1.47 | 12% | 2nd/4th | |||
| 25 | J.T. Ginn | OAK v SEA | 8 | 5.19 | 1.04 | 11% | 21st/23rd | |||
| 26 | Nick Nastrini | CHW at BAL | 30 | 7.04 | 1.73 | -3% | 26th/7th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th) and over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.