Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Sept 3, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Tommy Pham, Add% Change (7 days): -21.9%

Pham has been all over the place since the trade deadline when he was moved to the St. Louis Cardinals after playing for the White Sox. He couldn’t get the bat going for the Cards as he slashed only .206/.286/.368 compared to his season-long .253/.319/.374. He did hit two home runs and knock in 12 RBI, but it wasn’t enough and he was designated for assignment on August 30th. The Royals claimed Pham and he spent Labor Day weekend playing rightfield and going two for nine. Pham’s numbers are down across the board from what he produced in 2023, but he still holds value as he has been working in the top of the order for the Royals, hitting in front of Bobby Whit Jr. and Salvador Perez. Perhaps some managers cut Pham thinking he wouldn’t be playing the rest of the season.

Ben Rice, Add% Change (7 Days): -16.6%

We all saw this coming and so did Rice. He has been demoted to AAA after serving as the Yankees’ first baseman while Anthony Rizzo was out with an injury. Rice’s K% crept up to 26.3% before going back down. He produced exciting batted ball metrics, specifically an above-average Statcast HardHit% of 37.0%, a Barrel% of 15.7%, and a Zone-Contact% rate of 87.8%. Yet, Rice struggled to hit offspeed and breaking balls, and while he didn’t chase too often, he may have been too patient at the plate. He’s still only 25 and after a significant amount of time in the big leagues, it seems worth holding on to Rice in Ottoneu formats as long as the price isn’t too high.

David Bednar, Add% Change (7 Days): -11.6%

The Pirates will move to a closer committee of Dennis Santana, Kyle Nicolas, and Aroldis Chapman after Bednar’s BB% crept up to 21.1% in his last four outings. His K% has dipped and in August, he blew three saves. The Pirates are far out of the Wild Card race and may be protecting Bednar when he is struggling. The struggles don’t seem so egregious, but if you are in a race to win your league, it doesn’t seem like Bednar will contribute much as the season ends.

Injuries

Miguel Andujar, Add% Change (7 days): -25.7%

The Oakland A’s 3B/OF has been moved to the 60-day IL and likely won’t be back with the squad this season as undergoes core-muscle surgery. Andujar was a lefty-killer this season, slashing .411/.459/.536 in 61 plate appearances. But he also did really well overall as he slashed .285/.320/.377, his best line since 2018 when he was with the Yankees. He only hit four home runs, but his batting average was a nice boost for fantasy managers in 2024.

David Hamilton, Add% Change (7 days): -14.4%

Hamilton landed on the IL with a broken finger on August 29th. He’s only on the 10-day IL for now, but his recovery could take longer than that. He started to drop his K% some in August as he recorded a 20.6% K% in the month compared to an overall 25.2% K% on the year. Still, if you’re going to strike out that much you need to have some home runs, of which Hamilton only had eight.

 

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Logan O’Hoppe, -1.5 P/G

Like Alvarez (below), O’Hoppe is striking out too often. His season mark is now at 29.5%. His Barrel% and HardHit% look great, but he’s connecting with the ball inside the zone less than the average. Opposite of Alvarez, he’s being hurt by the fastball and doing a great job of picking up offspeed and breaking pitches. Both catchers are still so young and need to work on lowering their K%.

Francisco Alvarez, -1.0 P/G

The young Mets backstop has seen his K% steadily increase all season long:

He’s certainly shown flashes of power, but the flashes have not turned into consistent lighting. His 83.6% Z-Contact (Statcast) is below average and he needs more batted-ball data to give us hope for the future. His pValues, or Statcast run values whichever you prefer, tell a story of success when hitting the fastball and one of needed improvement when it comes to hitting breaking and offspeed pitches, particularly the slider.

Merrill Kelly 켈리, -2.1 P/IP

Kelly only has eight starts on the season, four at the beginning of the year and four in August. Three of his last four August starts have been bad, he’s given up at least four runs in each start. He’s struggling with the long ball as of late and has given up four home runs in his last two starts. His K% is also down to 11.5% in his last two.

George Kirby, -0.1 P/IP

Kirby was in last week’s “Cold Right Now” due to simply getting hit too much and not lasting much beyond the first few innings in his last few starts. Now, with another start added to the sample, Kirby is still getting beat up. He gave up three home runs in his last outing and five earned runs in total.