Starting Pitcher Chart – September 30th, 2022
by Paul Sporer
September 29, 2022
I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Let’s go secure some titles!
Note: Pitchers recommended in 12/15 but not 10 doesn’t mean I wouldn’t start them in 10s, but rather that it’s a more open choice as opposed to a slam dunk.
Friday’s Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | at ATL | R | x | x | x | 3.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 34% K-BB | .330 – 7th | 8 ER in 9 IP v. PIT & at OAK… just like we drew it up! |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at MIL | R | x | x | x | 3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .312 – 13th | Has a 2.10 ERA in his L4 after 6 ER at ATL |
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | MIA | R | x | x | x | 4.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .289 – 24th | Can’t wait to watch this matchup! |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | OAK | R | x | x | x | 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .307 – 17th | Will OAK rise up against another stud down the stretch? |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | COL | L | x | x | x | 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .223 – 27th (road only) | L5 are his outings since returning from the IL |
| Yu Darvish | SDP | CWS | R | x | x | x | 1.36 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .299 – 19th | Has reeled off 6+ IP in 22 straight |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | TBR | L | x | x | x | 2.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .347 – 6th | Lost his QS streak but I expect a sharp rebound |
| Max Fried | ATL | NYM | L | x | x | x | 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .351 – 5th | Fantastic stretch run for a great season |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | BOS | R | x | x | x | 1.03 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .348 – 1st | Tough matchup, no shot I’m sitting him though |
| Brady Singer | KCR | at CLE | R | x | x | x | 2.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .307 – 16th | Has made it 6+ IP in 13 of his L14 (2.12 ERA in 89 IP) |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at HOU | R | x | x | x | 3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .307 – 15th | Not an easy matchup, but he’s earned the trust |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | at DET | R | x | x | x | 3.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .275 – 30th | 3 duds, 2 gems in his L5; excellent matchup makes him an easy start |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | at SFG | R | x | x | x | 3.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .319 – 10th | Putting the finishing touches on a remarkable season |
| Alex Cobb | SFG | ARI | R | x | x | x | 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .321 – 9th | Hit for 5 ER last time out, but had reeled off 18 starts w/just 1 >3 ER |
| Domingo Germán | NYY | BAL | R | x | x | x | 2.57 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .334 – 4th | BAL surging vR, but I’m still rolling him out |
| Aaron Civale | CLE | KCR | R | x | x | x | 3.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .312 – 14th | B2B 5 IP outings since returning from the IL |
| Bailey Falter | PHI | at WAS | L | x | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .304 – 21st | The puns write themselves if he doesn’t pan out |
| Adrian Sampson 샘슨 | CHC | CIN | R | x | x | x | 1.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .278 – 27th | Has gone 6 IP in each of his last 4 |
| Jack Flaherty | STL | PIT | R | x | x | 4.71 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .298 – 22nd | Stats are L4 since IL return; BBs have been an issue (11%) | |
| Graham Ashcraft | CIN | at CHC | R | x | x | 3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .288 – 25th | Modest return from IL (4 IP/4 ER) but did reach 70 pitches | |
| Patrick Corbin | WAS | PHI | L | x | 2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .316 – 15th | Not the worst dart throw if you’re chasing | ||
| Tyler Alexander | DET | MIN | L | x | 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .287 – 24th | Has gone 5, 7, 6 IP in his L3 | ||
| Noah Syndergaard | PHI | at WAS | R | x | 5.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .312 – 12th | Don’t get too caught up in the name value | ||
| Ken Waldichuk | OAK | at SEA | L | x | 7.15 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .301 – 22nd | A 2.0 HR/9 has undercut the solid 14% K-BB since getting called up | ||
| Johan Oviedo | PIT | at STL | R | x | 3.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .279 – 26th | I’m an Oviedo stan, but not rushing into this STL start | ||
| Davis Martin | CWS | at SDP | R | x | 2.81 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .299 – 20th | Has allowed just 4 ER in 17 Sept. IP | ||
| Nick Pivetta | BOS | at TOR | R | 5.01 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .333 – 5th | Hasn’t reached 6 IP since mid-August | |||
| Erick Fedde | WAS | PHI | R | 7.36 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .339 – 3rd | Severe downside | |||
| Jordan Lyles | BAL | at NYY | R | 5.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .342 – 2nd | The WHIP makes it seem appealing before the K-BB% reality check | |||
| Chad Kuhl | COL | at LAD | R | 6.66 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .318 – 11th | Remember his ShO v. LAD on 6/27? He has an 8.15 ERA since then |
Where would Detmers rank on this list? He is going today and seems around 50% owned.
My sincere apologies, I completely glossed over him and I was out of town all day today so I’m *just* now seeing this. Total miss by me on that one