Starting Pitcher Chart – September 30th, 2022

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Note: Pitchers recommended in 12/15 but not 10 doesn’t mean I wouldn’t start them in 10s, but rather that it’s a more open choice as opposed to a slam dunk.

Friday’s Starters
Jacob deGrom NYM at ATL R x x x 3.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 34% K-BB .330 – 7th 8 ER in 9 IP v. PIT & at OAK… just like we drew it up!
Sandy Alcantara MIA at MIL R x x x 3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 20% K-BB .312 – 13th Has a 2.10 ERA in his L4 after 6 ER at ATL
Corbin Burnes MIL MIA R x x x 4.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 21% K-BB .289 – 24th Can’t wait to watch this matchup!
Logan Gilbert SEA OAK R x x x 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27% K-BB .307 – 17th Will OAK rise up against another stud down the stretch?
Clayton Kershaw LAD COL L x x x 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 27% K-BB .223 – 27th (road only) L5 are his outings since returning from the IL
Yu Darvish SDP CWS R x x x 1.36 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 25% K-BB .299 – 19th Has reeled off 6+ IP in 22 straight
Framber Valdez HOU TBR L x x x 2.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 23% K-BB .347 – 6th Lost his QS streak but I expect a sharp rebound
Max Fried ATL NYM L x x x 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20% K-BB .351 – 5th Fantastic stretch run for a great season
Alek Manoah TOR BOS R x x x 1.03 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14% K-BB .348 – 1st Tough matchup, no shot I’m sitting him though
Brady Singer KCR at CLE R x x x 2.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 15% K-BB .307 – 16th Has made it 6+ IP in 13 of his L14 (2.12 ERA in 89 IP)
Drew Rasmussen TBR at HOU R x x x 3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17% K-BB .307 – 15th Not an easy matchup, but he’s earned the trust
Joe Ryan MIN at DET R x x x 3.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 16% K-BB .275 – 30th 3 duds, 2 gems in his L5; excellent matchup makes him an easy start
Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI at SFG R x x x 3.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19% K-BB .319 – 10th Putting the finishing touches on a remarkable season
Alex Cobb SFG ARI R x x x 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 13% K-BB .321 – 9th Hit for 5 ER last time out, but had reeled off 18 starts w/just 1 >3 ER
Domingo Germán NYY BAL R x x x 2.57 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 13% K-BB .334 – 4th BAL surging vR, but I’m still rolling him out
Aaron Civale CLE KCR R x x x 3.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 21% K-BB .312 – 14th B2B 5 IP outings since returning from the IL
Bailey Falter PHI at WAS L x x x 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 18% K-BB .304 – 21st The puns write themselves if he doesn’t pan out
Adrian Sampson 샘슨 CHC CIN R x x x 1.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6% K-BB .278 – 27th Has gone 6 IP in each of his last 4
Jack Flaherty STL PIT R x x 4.71 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 9% K-BB .298 – 22nd Stats are L4 since IL return; BBs have been an issue (11%)
Graham Ashcraft CIN at CHC R x x 3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11% K-BB .288 – 25th Modest return from IL (4 IP/4 ER) but did reach 70 pitches
Patrick Corbin WAS PHI L x 2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 15% K-BB .316 – 15th Not the worst dart throw if you’re chasing
Tyler Alexander DET MIN L x 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11% K-BB .287 – 24th Has gone 5, 7, 6 IP in his L3
Noah Syndergaard PHI at WAS R x 5.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12% K-BB .312 – 12th Don’t get too caught up in the name value
Ken Waldichuk OAK at SEA L x 7.15 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14% K-BB .301 – 22nd A 2.0 HR/9 has undercut the solid 14% K-BB since getting called up
Johan Oviedo PIT at STL R x 3.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10% K-BB .279 – 26th I’m an Oviedo stan, but not rushing into this STL start
Davis Martin CWS at SDP R x 2.81 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8% K-BB .299 – 20th Has allowed just 4 ER in 17 Sept. IP
Nick Pivetta BOS at TOR R 5.01 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 12% K-BB .333 – 5th Hasn’t reached 6 IP since mid-August
Erick Fedde WAS PHI R 7.36 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 7% K-BB .339 – 3rd Severe downside
Jordan Lyles BAL at NYY R 5.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB .342 – 2nd The WHIP makes it seem appealing before the K-BB% reality check
Chad Kuhl COL at LAD R 6.66 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 17% K-BB .318 – 11th Remember his ShO v. LAD on 6/27? He has an 8.15 ERA since then

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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2 months ago

Where would Detmers rank on this list? He is going today and seems around 50% owned.

Last edited 2 months ago by PhilliesPhan