Starting Pitcher Chart – September 29th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | LAD | SDP | x | x | x | 1.32 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 33% K-BB | .312 – 17th | Bumpy Coors start easily forgiven for the NL Cy favorite |
| Frankie Montas | OAK | at SEA | x | x | x | 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .308 – 21st | 4 ER blip at KC is a clear outlier over his last 16 (2.38 ERA) |
| José Berríos | TOR | NYY | x | x | x | 3.27 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .332 – 11th | Closing brilliantly w/6 straight QS (2.70 ERA, 46 Ks in 40 IP) |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | at TOR | x | x | x | 4.61 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .363 – 2nd | One of the few exceptions to #NeverToronto |
| Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | at BAL | x | x | x | 4.85 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .295 – 26th | Brutal 7 ER outing v. NYY last time out doesn’t deter me |
| Max Fried | ATL | PHI | x | x | x | 1.59 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .313 – 18th | Riding 16 straight scoreless incl. a Maddux his last time out |
| Sonny Gray | CIN | at CWS | x | x | x | 4.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .326 – 12th | Tough draw, but I can’t really see sitting him |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | at ATL | x | x | x | 6.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 31% K-BB | .335 – 10th | A pair of 6 ER duds over L5 fueled by 4 HR, had 13 K/3 BB in ’em |
| Carlos Rodón | CWS | CIN | x | x | x | 2.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28% K-BB | .298 – 24th | Left last start w/arm soreness |
| Alex Wood | SFG | ARI | x | x | x | 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .305 – 20th | Should be stretched out enough to make it 5 if he’s rolling |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | OAK | x | x | x | 2.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .323 – 13th | Barely remember his 9.13 Aug. ERA now |
| Zach Plesac | CLE | at KCR | x | x | x | 3.68 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .301 – 23rd | Pitching well & a great matchup make him a good play |
| Luis Garcia | HOU | TBR | x | x | x | 3.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .320 – 14th | Skills fading a bit, but still going at least 5 IP per start |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at HOU | x | x | 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .338 – 7th | Has gone 5 in 3 of the last 5, netting Ws in 2 of them | |
| Adrian Houser | MIL | at STL | x | x | 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .316 – 15th | Might not get a post-clinch lineup bc of the W streak | |
| Miles Mikolas | STL | MIL | x | x | 4.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .315 – 16th | Has notched 5+ in each of his L4 incl. 7 strong last time | |
| Michael Pineda | MIN | DET | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .312 – 18th | Has won 4 straight hasn’t K’d >3 since July 26th (6 starts) | |
| Taylor Hearn | TEX | LAA | x | 5.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .301 – 22nd | High risk, but 7 ER dud is inflating L5 #s; 3.96 ERA in other 4 | ||
| Taijuan Walker | NYM | MIA | x | 8.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .290 – 28th | Caution: Flammable -3 starts of 5+ ER and 2 w/2 ER in his L5 | ||
| Paolo Espino | WAS | at COL | 3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .289 – 22nd | Would actually have some interest if he wasn’t in Coors | |||
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | at PIT | 9.25 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .311 – 19th | PIT has his # this yr: 7.45 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 19.3 IP | |||
| Elieser Hernandez | MIA | at NYM | 4.81 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .338 – 6th | 3 HR last time out after B2B 0 HR outings | |||
| Daniel Lynch | KCR | CLE | 6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .327 – 12th | Interesting rookie for ’22 after showing a few flashes this yr | |||
| Casey Mize | DET | at MIN | 4.24 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .295 – 25th | IP mgmt. plan kills any shot at a W (11 IP in L4 GS) | |||
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | at SFG | 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .363 – 1st | Did drop 8 scoreless v. SF back on 8/5, but I’m not risking it | |||
| Dinelson Lamet | SDP | at LAD | Been an RP since IL return in Sept. | .293 – 27th | Hasn’t topped 2 IP since June 26th | |||
| Janson Junk | LAA | at TEX | 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .309 – 20th | 4 UER protecting his ERA, but heed the 8.25 FIP in his 3 MLB GS | |||
| Zac Lowther | BAL | BOS | 6.06 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .334 – 9th | #s are for his L4 starts as 5th was in May… not that it matters | |||
| Peter Lambert | COL | WAS | Has 1 start of 3.7 IP | .337 – 8th | No |
Roansy?
who?
Contreras? Making his debut against CHC tomorrow
I use our Probables page & we didn’t have anyone for PIT. He missed a ton of bats in AA this yr, but I don’t think I’d use him in any format
50the best prospect in MLB on this website, come on man.
I know the name, didn’t know he was slated to start today. We had null on PIT