Starting Pitcher Chart – September 28th, 2022
by Paul Sporer
September 28, 2022
I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Let’s go secure some titles!
Note: Pitchers recommended in 12/15 but not 10 doesn’t mean I wouldn’t start them in 10s, but rather that it’s a more open choice as opposed to a slam dunk.
Wednesday’s Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | at CHC | R | x | x | x | 4.56 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .294 – 24th | Deserves so much better than his 10-12 record |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | STL | R | x | x | x | 2.76 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .282 – 27th | Remember when he had a 5.35 ERA through 7 starts? |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | at HOU | R | x | x | x | 1.62 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 32% K-BB | .295 – 23rd | A viable Cy Young candidate |
| Justin Verlander | HOU | ARI | R | x | x | x | 1.67 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 30% K-BB | .325 – 8th | Only concern would be a shortened outing to garner some rest |
| George Kirby | SEA | TEX | R | x | x | x | 3.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .287 – 25th | OAK just randomly smoking everyone last week |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | at TOR | R | x | x | x | 4.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 28% K-BB | .338 – 2nd | 3 straight 4 ER outings, but whattya gonna do.. bench him?! |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | TBR | R | x | x | x | 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .308 – 16th | Putting the finishing touches on an ace-caliber campaign |
| José Quintana | STL | at MIL | L | x | x | x | 1.20 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .316 – 17th | Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in 12 2H starts (1.74 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 13% K-BB) |
| Julio Urías | LAD | at SDP | L | x | x | x | 1.78 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .325 – 15th | Has his NL-best 2.25 ERA gotten enough attention? |
| Martín Pérez | TEX | at SEA | L | x | x | x | 3.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .304 – 22nd | He did it, he kept it up all year! Excellent season by Perez |
| Taijuan Walker | NYM | MIA | R | x | x | x | 4.11 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .279 – 30th | Can garner a ton of fantasy favor by taking advantage of this matchup |
| Joe Musgrove | SDP | LAD | R | x | x | x | 3.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .324 – 9th | Gotta roll him in all chase situations, but could sit in a protect spot |
| Johnny Cueto | CWS | at MIN | R | x | x | x | 5.67 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .300 – 21st | 2 duds in his L5 incl. 1 at OAK(!!), but I’m still starting him |
| Michael Lorenzen | LAA | OAK | R | x | x | x | 4.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .310 – 15th | Stats are 3 Sept. starts since IL return; |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | at NYM | L | x | x | 4.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .355 – 5th | Good pitcher, tough matchup | |
| Matt Manning | DET | KCR | R | x | x | 5.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .311 – 14th | 2.78 ERA, 1.08 WHIP since the 7 ER dud v. SEA, but just a 7% K-BB | |
| Josh Winder | MIN | CWS | R | x | x | 5.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .305 – 19th | Stats are 3 Sept. starts since IL return; made it 6 IP his last time out | |
| Hayden Wesneski | CHC | PHI | R | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .333 – 4th | Tough matchup, but he’s looked sharp down the stretch | |
| Luis Cessa | CIN | at PIT | R | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .300 – 22nd | Pitching well enough to take the shot in such a good matchup | |
| Dean Kremer | BAL | at BOS | R | x | 2.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .339 – 1st | Don’t be afraid to pull back against this Red Sox offense | ||
| Rich Hill | BOS | BAL | L | x | 5.96 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .253 – 29th | A desperate heave at best | ||
| Daniel Lynch | KCR | at DET | L | x | 7.15 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .291 – 24th | Good matchup on paper, but DET has rocked him (8.53 ERA, 1.97 WHIP) | ||
| Adrián Martínez | OAK | at LAA | R | x | 6.12 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .303 – 20th | The 4.26 SIERA hints at some upside, but 2.2 HR9 holds him back | ||
| Tyler Glasnow | TBR | at CLE | R | x | Season debut off TJ | .305 – 18th | Only up to 46 pitches in last rehab outing so temper expectations | ||
| Bryse Wilson | PIT | CIN | R | x | 5.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .280 – 28th | Has gone 5+ in L4, yielding 4, 3, 4, 2 ER… Hail Mary-type for sure | ||
| Jake Odorizzi | ATL | at WAS | R | 6.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .319 – 12th | Incredibly volatile and coming off an 8 ER dud | |||
| Mitch White | TOR | NYY | R | 9.82 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .336 – 3rd | Just doesn’t have a good enough fastball to start | |||
| Josiah Gray | WAS | ATL | R | 7.03 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, -1% K-BB | .330 – 6th | Offseason will be spent dreaming of what he could do w/some HR suppression | |||
| José Ureña | COL | at SFG | R | 3.95 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .317 – 13th | A microcosm of the risk: 9, 2, 6, 1, 1, 2 ER in L6 | |||
| Sean Hjelle | SFG | COL | R | RP in an opening spot | .279 – 29th |
Good info and nicely presented – thanks, Paul!