Starting Pitcher Chart – September 28th, 2022

September 28, 2022

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Note: Pitchers recommended in 12/15 but not 10 doesn’t mean I wouldn’t start them in 10s, but rather that it’s a more open choice as opposed to a slam dunk.

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Wednesday’s Starters

PITCHER	TM	OPP	THR	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Aaron Nola	PHI	at CHC	R	x	x	x	4.56 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.294 – 24th	Deserves so much better than his 10-12 record
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	STL	R	x	x	x	2.76 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26% K-BB	.282 – 27th	Remember when he had a 5.35 ERA through 7 starts?
Zac Gallen	ARI	at HOU	R	x	x	x	1.62 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 32% K-BB	.295 – 23rd	A viable Cy Young candidate
Justin Verlander	HOU	ARI	R	x	x	x	1.67 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 30% K-BB	.325 – 8th	Only concern would be a shortened outing to garner some rest
George Kirby	SEA	TEX	R	x	x	x	3.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.287 – 25th	OAK just randomly smoking everyone last week
Gerrit Cole	NYY	at TOR	R	x	x	x	4.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 28% K-BB	.338 – 2nd	3 straight 4 ER outings, but whattya gonna do.. bench him?!
Triston McKenzie	CLE	TBR	R	x	x	x	2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 25% K-BB	.308 – 16th	Putting the finishing touches on an ace-caliber campaign
José Quintana	STL	at MIL	L	x	x	x	1.20 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.316 – 17th	Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in 12 2H starts (1.74 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 13% K-BB)
Julio Urías	LAD	at SDP	L	x	x	x	1.78 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.325 – 15th	Has his NL-best 2.25 ERA gotten enough attention?
Martín Pérez	TEX	at SEA	L	x	x	x	3.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.304 – 22nd	He did it, he kept it up all year! Excellent season by Perez
Taijuan Walker	NYM	MIA	R	x	x	x	4.11 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.279 – 30th	Can garner a ton of fantasy favor by taking advantage of this matchup
Joe Musgrove	SDP	LAD	R	x	x	x	3.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.324 – 9th	Gotta roll him in all chase situations, but could sit in a protect spot
Johnny Cueto	CWS	at MIN	R	x	x	x	5.67 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.300 – 21st	2 duds in his L5 incl. 1 at OAK(!!), but I’m still starting him
Michael Lorenzen	LAA	OAK	R	x	x	x	4.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.310 – 15th	Stats are 3 Sept. starts since IL return;
Jesús Luzardo	MIA	at NYM	L		x	x	4.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.355 – 5th	Good pitcher, tough matchup
Matt Manning	DET	KCR	R		x	x	5.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.311 – 14th	2.78 ERA, 1.08 WHIP since the 7 ER dud v. SEA, but just a 7% K-BB
Josh Winder	MIN	CWS	R		x	x	5.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.305 – 19th	Stats are 3 Sept. starts since IL return; made it 6 IP his last time out
Hayden Wesneski	CHC	PHI	R		x	x	2.45 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 24% K-BB	.333 – 4th	Tough matchup, but he’s looked sharp down the stretch
Luis Cessa	CIN	at PIT	R		x	x	3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.300 – 22nd	Pitching well enough to take the shot in such a good matchup
Dean Kremer	BAL	at BOS	R			x	2.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.339 – 1st	Don’t be afraid to pull back against this Red Sox offense
Rich Hill	BOS	BAL	L			x	5.96 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.253 – 29th	A desperate heave at best
Daniel Lynch	KCR	at DET	L			x	7.15 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.291 – 24th	Good matchup on paper, but DET has rocked him (8.53 ERA, 1.97 WHIP)
Adrián Martínez	OAK	at LAA	R			x	6.12 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.303 – 20th	The 4.26 SIERA hints at some upside, but 2.2 HR9 holds him back
Tyler Glasnow	TBR	at CLE	R			x	Season debut off TJ	.305 – 18th	Only up to 46 pitches in last rehab outing so temper expectations
Bryse Wilson	PIT	CIN	R			x	5.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.280 – 28th	Has gone 5+ in L4, yielding 4, 3, 4, 2 ER… Hail Mary-type for sure
Jake Odorizzi	ATL	at WAS	R				6.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.319 – 12th	Incredibly volatile and coming off an 8 ER dud
Mitch White	TOR	NYY	R				9.82 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.336 – 3rd	Just doesn’t have a good enough fastball to start
Josiah Gray	WAS	ATL	R				7.03 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, -1% K-BB	.330 – 6th	Offseason will be spent dreaming of what he could do w/some HR suppression
José Ureña	COL	at SFG	R				3.95 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.317 – 13th	A microcosm of the risk: 9, 2, 6, 1, 1, 2 ER in L6
Sean Hjelle	SFG	COL	R				RP in an opening spot	.279 – 29th