Starting Pitcher Chart – September 27th, 2022
by Paul Sporer
September 27, 2022
I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Let’s go secure some titles!
Note: Pitchers recommended in 12/15 but not 10 doesn’t mean I wouldn’t start them in 10s, but rather that it’s a more open choice as opposed to a slam dunk.
Tuesday’s Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | LAA | OAK | L | x | x | x | 2.54 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .266 – 28th | Has a 1.09 WHIP since Aug. 1st after a 1.48 thru July |
| Lance Lynn | CWS | at MIN | R | x | x | x | 1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .300 – 21st | 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 25% K-BB in 2H will re-establish draft price |
| Shane Bieber | CLE | TBR | R | x | x | x | 1.95 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .308 – 13th | Started 2H w/6 ER, since: 1.75 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 24% K-BB in 77.3 IP |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | ARI | R | x | x | x | 2.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .324 – 9th | Looks excellent lately, averaging 100 pitches/gm in his L4 |
| Robbie Ray | SEA | TEX | L | x | x | x | 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .320 – 16th | Highly volatile stretch run: 0, 0, 4, 5, 0 ER in L5 |
| Logan Webb | SFG | COL | R | x | x | x | 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .277 – 30th | Big Q for ’23 is: will the Ks return? (-7 pts to 20% this yr) |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | at CHC | R | x | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .293 – 23rd | Should hopefully get at least 5 IP in 2nd start back from IL |
| Michael Wacha | BOS | BAL | R | x | x | x | 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .307 – 15th | Has gone <6 IP just 1x in L8 (5.7 IP/0 ER v. BAL) |
| Corey Kluber | TBR | at CLE | R | x | x | x | 4.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .302 – 20th | That 6 ER in less than an IP at NYY is still holding his L5 back |
| Bailey Ober | MIN | CWS | R | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .303 – 17th | Stats are 2 solid starts since returning from the IL |
| Miles Mikolas | STL | at MIL | R | x | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .327 – 5th | W chasers sick after B2B quality starts |
| Pablo López | MIA | at NYM | R | x | x | x | 5.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .326 – 6th | 2 gems (3 ER in 13.3 IP) since the 8 ER dud v. NYM |
| Tyler Anderson | LAD | at SDP | L | x | x | x | 1.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .334 – 11th | Essentially the AL’s Martín Pérez |
| Hunter Greene | CIN | at PIT | R | x | x | x | 1.54 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 32% K-BB | .293 – 22nd | Another pair of gems would give him 8 strong & create some ’23 buzz |
| Joey Wentz | DET | KCR | L | x | x | x | 1.10 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .346 – 7th | 3 solid outings since returning to MLB |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | CIN | R | x | x | x | 2.03 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .284 – 28th | 6+ in all of his L5 with 31 Ks in 31 IP; strong close will earn attention for ’23 |
| Carlos Carrasco | NYM | MIA | R | x | x | x | 3.92 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .278 – 29th | Matchup severely mitigates the risk |
| Blake Snell | SDP | LAD | L | x | x | 2.10 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29% K-BB | .335 – 10th | Elite 2H but LAD is one of 2 tms to get him | |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | at BOS | R | x | x | 2.08 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .334 – 3rd | Just a relentless schedule, but he’s tackling all comers | |
| Marcus Stroman | CHC | PHI | R | x | x | 2.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .335 – 1st | Pass if you’re protecting, but gotta go if you’re chasing | |
| Jameson Taillon | NYY | at TOR | R | x | x | 3.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .335 – 2nd | Pass if you’re protecting, but gotta go if you’re chasing | |
| Zack Greinke | KCR | at DET | R | x | x | 3.91 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .291 – 24th | Unless you need Ks, this isn’t a terrible gamble | |
| James Kaprielian | OAK | at LAA | R | x | 4.78 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .302 – 19th | Bomb v. NYY is his only dud in L15 (3.46 ERA, but just 6% K-BB) | ||
| Kyle Muller | ATL | at WAS | L | x | 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB at AAA | .310 – 19th | BB issues (14%) have marred his 44.3 MLB IP, but the talent is there | ||
| José Berríos | TOR | NYY | R | 5.19 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .331 – 4th | You’re flipping a coin here so if you’re desperate… | |||
| Germán Márquez | COL | at SFG | R | 4.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .312 – 12th | 5 of his 6 best starts (by Game Score) have come on the road… feeling lucky? | |||
| Adrian Houser | MIL | STL | R | 2.61 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, -3% K-BB | .288 – 25th | That K-BB isn’t a typo; he’s riding a .194 BABIP during this run | |||
| Zach Davies | ARI | at HOU | R | 4.84 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .288 – 26th | Not even w/HOU struggling | |||
| Paolo Espino | WAS | ATL | R | 4.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .325 – 8th | Only 71 pitches in return to rotation | |||
| Jesus Tinoco | TEX | at SEA | R | 1st MLB Start | .326 – 7th | No. |
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.