Starting Pitcher Chart – September 27th, 2022

September 27, 2022

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Note: Pitchers recommended in 12/15 but not 10 doesn’t mean I wouldn’t start them in 10s, but rather that it’s a more open choice as opposed to a slam dunk.

Tuesday’s Starters

PITCHER	TM	OPP	THR	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Patrick Sandoval	LAA	OAK	L	x	x	x	2.54 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.266 – 28th	Has a 1.09 WHIP since Aug. 1st after a 1.48 thru July
Lance Lynn	CWS	at MIN	R	x	x	x	1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.300 – 21st	2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 25% K-BB in 2H will re-establish draft price
Shane Bieber	CLE	TBR	R	x	x	x	1.95 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 24% K-BB	.308 – 13th	Started 2H w/6 ER, since: 1.75 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 24% K-BB in 77.3 IP
Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	ARI	R	x	x	x	2.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.324 – 9th	Looks excellent lately, averaging 100 pitches/gm in his L4
Robbie Ray	SEA	TEX	L	x	x	x	2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.320 – 16th	Highly volatile stretch run: 0, 0, 4, 5, 0 ER in L5
Logan Webb	SFG	COL	R	x	x	x	2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.277 – 30th	Big Q for ’23 is: will the Ks return? (-7 pts to 20% this yr)
Zack Wheeler	PHI	at CHC	R	x	x	x	3.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.293 – 23rd	Should hopefully get at least 5 IP in 2nd start back from IL
Michael Wacha	BOS	BAL	R	x	x	x	3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.307 – 15th	Has gone <6 IP just 1x in L8 (5.7 IP/0 ER v. BAL)
Corey Kluber	TBR	at CLE	R	x	x	x	4.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.302 – 20th	That 6 ER in less than an IP at NYY is still holding his L5 back
Bailey Ober	MIN	CWS	R	x	x	x	2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.303 – 17th	Stats are 2 solid starts since returning from the IL
Miles Mikolas	STL	at MIL	R	x	x	x	3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.327 – 5th	W chasers sick after B2B quality starts
Pablo López	MIA	at NYM	R	x	x	x	5.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.326 – 6th	2 gems (3 ER in 13.3 IP) since the 8 ER dud v. NYM
Tyler Anderson	LAD	at SDP	L	x	x	x	1.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.334 – 11th	Essentially the AL’s Martín Pérez
Hunter Greene	CIN	at PIT	R	x	x	x	1.54 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 32% K-BB	.293 – 22nd	Another pair of gems would give him 8 strong & create some ’23 buzz
Joey Wentz	DET	KCR	L	x	x	x	1.10 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.346 – 7th	3 solid outings since returning to MLB
Mitch Keller	PIT	CIN	R	x	x	x	2.03 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.284 – 28th	6+ in all of his L5 with 31 Ks in 31 IP; strong close will earn attention for ’23
Carlos Carrasco	NYM	MIA	R	x	x	x	3.92 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.278 – 29th	Matchup severely mitigates the risk
Blake Snell	SDP	LAD	L		x	x	2.10 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29% K-BB	.335 – 10th	Elite 2H but LAD is one of 2 tms to get him
Kyle Bradish	BAL	at BOS	R		x	x	2.08 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.334 – 3rd	Just a relentless schedule, but he’s tackling all comers
Marcus Stroman	CHC	PHI	R		x	x	2.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.335 – 1st	Pass if you’re protecting, but gotta go if you’re chasing
Jameson Taillon	NYY	at TOR	R		x	x	3.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.335 – 2nd	Pass if you’re protecting, but gotta go if you’re chasing
Zack Greinke	KCR	at DET	R		x	x	3.91 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.291 – 24th	Unless you need Ks, this isn’t a terrible gamble
James Kaprielian	OAK	at LAA	R			x	4.78 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 2% K-BB	.302 – 19th	Bomb v. NYY is his only dud in L15 (3.46 ERA, but just 6% K-BB)
Kyle Muller	ATL	at WAS	L			x	3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB at AAA	.310 – 19th	BB issues (14%) have marred his 44.3 MLB IP, but the talent is there
José Berríos	TOR	NYY	R				5.19 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.331 – 4th	You’re flipping a coin here so if you’re desperate…
Germán Márquez	COL	at SFG	R				4.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.312 – 12th	5 of his 6 best starts (by Game Score) have come on the road… feeling lucky?
Adrian Houser	MIL	STL	R				2.61 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, -3% K-BB	.288 – 25th	That K-BB isn’t a typo; he’s riding a .194 BABIP during this run
Zach Davies	ARI	at HOU	R				4.84 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.288 – 26th	Not even w/HOU struggling
Paolo Espino	WAS	ATL	R				4.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.325 – 8th	Only 71 pitches in return to rotation
Jesus Tinoco	TEX	at SEA	R				1st MLB Start	.326 – 7th	No.