Starting Pitcher Chart – September 24th, 2021

September 23, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

September 24th Starter Chart

PITCHER	TM	OPP	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Corbin Burnes	MIL	NYM	x	x	x	3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30% K-BB	.338 – 6th	Still hasn’t hit the +100 IP loose target MIL allowed for SPs
Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	NYY	x	x	x	2.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 29% K-BB	.335 – 7th	First 30-start season since 2014
Max Fried	ATL	at SDP	x	x	x	2.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.293 – 23rd	Absolutely dominant 2H: 1.99 ERA, 76 Ks in 77 IP
Gerrit Cole	NYY	at BOS	x	x	x	3.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 27% K-BB	.375 – 1st	Nightmare 7 ER dud v. CLE had to sting, but still auto-start
José Berríos	TOR	at MIN	x	x	x	2.38 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 25% K-BB	.313 – 14th	Revenge game!
Dylan Cease	CWS	at CLE	x	x	x	4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 27% K-BB	.299 – 25th	Rebounded from BOS dud (7 ER) w/5 scoreless at TEX
Frankie Montas	OAK	HOU	x	x	x	2.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.344 – 4th	Wish the schedule favored him, but 2.04 ERA in 3 GS v. HOU
Sonny Gray	CIN	WAS	x	x	x	2.79 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.331 – 9th	Has allowed >4 ER just once since July 26th (10 starts)
Logan Gilbert	SEA	at LAA	x	x	x	3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.292 – 26th	Has emerged from rookie wall lull w/2.01 ERA in L4
Carlos Hernández	KCR	at DET	x	x	x	3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.304 – 21st	His L5 ERA is pretty good considering the 7 ER last time out
Shane Bieber	CLE	CWS	x	x	x	3.48 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.329 – 11th	No word about SP limits so I’d take the shot w/him
José Suarez	LAA	SEA	x	x	x	3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.328 – 13th	Quietly rolling since Aug: 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 44 IP
Kyle Gibson	PHI	PIT	x	x	x	5.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.308 – 18th	If you can’t start him here, he shouldn’t be on the roster
Paolo Espino	WAS	at CIN		x	x	3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.301 – 23rd	Feeling lucky? 5, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1, 0 ER over his last L7
J.A. Happ	STL	at CHC		x	x	6.86 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.343 – 9th	Has a 4.40 ERA in 3 starts since that 7 ER dud
Alex Wood	SFG	at COL			x	3.81 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.352 – 9th*	So many good SPs having to hit Coors down the stretch
Zack Greinke	HOU	at OAK			x	7.56 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 3% K-BB	.313 – 15th	Has allowed 5+ ER in L3 so not a guarantee here
Miguel Yajure	PIT	at PHI			x	3.86 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.340 – 5th	1st MLB start since mid-May (2.78 ERA in L5 MILB GS)
Jack Flaherty	STL	at CHC			x	4.37 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.333 – 8th	Getting a follower so only use if you can use any decent IP
Edward Cabrera	MIA	at TBR			x	5.31 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 3% K-BB	.310 – 16th	Remember how excited his debut made us? Just be careful here
Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at ARI			x	3.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.271 – 30th	Under 4 IP/start over his last 7; if you want 2-4 useful IP
Bailey Ober	MIN	TOR				4.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 24% K-BB	.352 – 3rd	#NeverToronto
Casey Mize	DET	KCR				3.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.301 – 22nd	IP mgmt. plan kills any shot at a W (8 IP in L3 GS)
Humberto Castellanos	ARI	LAD				4.63 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.279 – 29th	Not even v. a sputtering LAD offense
Tylor Megill	NYM	at MIL				7.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.308 -19th	HR issues have bred volatility over his L10 (2.3 HR9)
Spencer Howard	TEX	at BAL				8.74 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.317 – 13th	Just 11.3 IP in is L5 combined
Justin Steele	CHC	STL				5.16 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.250 – 30th	Don’t mess w/the Cardinals Devil Magic
Alexander Wells	BAL	at TEX				9.70 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.296 -22nd	Just not tangible upside here
Zach Davies	CHC	STL				8.38 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.305 – 20th	Don’t mess w/the Cardinals Devil Magic
Peter Lambert	COL	SFG				10.42 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, 3% K-BB	.356 – 2nd	5+ ER in 4 of his last 5

*home vL for COL