Starting Pitcher Chart – September 23rd, 2022
I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Let’s go secure some titles!
Friday’s Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at MIN | R | x | x | x | 1.45 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .299 – 20th | The league’s most valuable player |
| Carlos Rodón | SFG | at ARI | L | x | x | x | 2.63 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 31% K-BB | .248 – 29th | If the blister is OK, he shouldn’t have many issues |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | BOS | R | x | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29% K-BB | .336 – 4th | K% up at 37% over his L5 |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | at TBR | R | x | x | x | 1.29 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .313 – 12th | Just a 23% K% rate, but is he a top 40 pick next year? |
| Jeffrey Springs | TBR | TOR | L | x | x | x | 2.39 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .317 – 14th | TOR is tough, but I just can’t envision benching him |
| Brady Singer | KCR | SEA | R | x | x | x | 2.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .303 – 18th | Is there another step w/the 23% K%? Could be an ace if so |
| Chris Bassitt | NYM | at OAK | R | x | x | x | 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .289 – 26th | Revenge gaaaame!!! |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | ATL | R | x | x | x | 4.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .341 – 1st | Brutal matchup but of course no chance he’s sitting |
| Jose Quintana | STL | at LAD | L | x | x | x | 1.91 WHIP, 1.03 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .380 – 2nd | Standard disclaimer: Don’t be afraid to fade LAD w/non-Aces |
| Andrew Heaney | LAD | STL | L | x | x | x | 3.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 33% K-BB | .358 – 4th | High risk of not making it 5 IP which lowers his W chances |
| Lucas Giolito | CWS | DET | R | x | x | x | 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .285 – 27th | You don’t have to, but I would in all formats |
| Cody Morris | CLE | at TEX | R | x | x | x | 2.30 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .315 – 11th | Up to 81 pitches last time out & I’m a big fan of him |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | at KCR | R | x | x | x | 3.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .296 – 23rd | Great matchup as his HR weakness is unlikely to be tested by KCR (26th in HR v. LH) |
| Javier Assad | CHC | at PIT | R | x | x | x | 3.63 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .289 – 25th | Matchup drives the interest, but BBs can get him if they’re patient |
| Braxton Garrett | MIA | WAS | L | x | x | 4.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .301 – 20th | Went 65 pitches in his IL return, should have enough juice for 5+ IP here | |
| Jon Gray | TEX | CLE | R | x | x | 4.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .299 – 21st | The skills are there, but | |
| José Urquidy | HOU | at BAL | L | x | x | 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .228 – 30th | B2B 6 ER duds make this one scary, but BAL bats are icy | |
| Dean Kremer | BAL | HOU | R | x | 3.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .309 – 13th | Bradish just smoked HOU, but I’d still be very careful here | ||
| Cole Irvin | OAK | NYM | L | x | 5.81 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .328 – 11th | I’m not brave enough to take this plunge | ||
| Eric Lauer | MIL | at CIN | L | x | 5.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .326 – 13th | Blasted in Coors (7 ER), but has a 3.04 ERA/1.27 WHIP in the other 4 | ||
| Rich Hill | BOS | at NYY | L | x | 4.74 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .291 – 24th | You know the risk: 0, 4, 5, 0, 4 ER in L5 | ||
| Jake Odorizzi | ATL | at PHI | R | x | 4.68 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .339 – 3rd | Risky matchup & hasn’t gone 5 in 2 starts since IL return | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | at CWS | L | x | 5.08 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .382 – 1st | 3 up, 2 down in L5, but CWS toasting lefties gives me some pause | ||
| Tommy Henry | ARI | SFG | L | x | 6.38 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .271 – 26th | There’s been some intrigue | ||
| Josiash Gray | WAS | at MIA | R | x | 6.66 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .277 – 30th | The best possible matchup, but the HR problem makes him SO volatile | ||
| Louie Varland | MIN | LAA | R | x | 5.23 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .304 – 16th | Small chance at a solid 5 IP… feeling lucky? | ||
| Sean Manaea | SDP | at COL | L | 7.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .383 – 6th (at Coors) | Bounced back in last start, but I’m not messing with Coors | |||
| Mike Minor | CIN | MIL | L | 4.97 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .316 – 17th | Not sure there’s enough upside to even gamble | |||
| Ryan Feltner | COL | SDP | R | 6.46 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .290 – 24th | Of course not | |||
| Bryse Wilson | PIT | CHC | R | 7.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .283 – 28th | Way too much downside here |
Ohtani hot take, right off the bat!
But what, regarding Jon Gray?
Man, I am really going back and forth on whether to start or sit Quintana vs. the Dodgers. I’m in a tight fight for second place (and more $$$) in a 12-team 5×5, and I have 1 and 2 more wins than those right behind me (and I’m way behind the W in front of me) … but my WHIP is only 0.001 behind the next team WHIP, and 0.006 ahead of the WHIP right behind me. My ERA is 3 points ahead of one team, and only 3 points behind two other teams.
A bad outing against LA could drop me two quick points in the standings, as well as put me further from striking distance for 3 more points. He may get an ugly win (Heaney going for LA), but would it be worth a 5ip/8h/4er line?
As a fellow Quintana owner, I say sit him. The risk far outweighs the potential benefit.
But lick your chops as he seems to line up to face the Pirates twice in the last bit of the season.
Based on your circumstances, I think I’d pass. As long as you can handle a gem on your bench, I say go for it. I know they can be agonizing – I benched Drey Jameson, JP Sears, and Kyle Bradish this week, but I stand by my process given their matchups (LAD-SEA-HOU, respectively).
Appreciate the feedback. Just did a quick analysis and ERA/WHIP represent two of my three largest potential swings in points in any category (S is another)—I’m comfortably ahead or behind in most of the categories, with a possible loss/gain of a point here and there. Based on that, and with Quintana much more likely to hurt me in those categories than help me (a “good” Q game would just tread water, a gem would help), I think I will sit him.
Silver lining is that if he does pitch well, it helps my favorite IRL team, the Cardinals.
Paul – Judge is now worth almost 2 more WAR than Ohtani, it’s not even close. And don’t mention how Ohtani saves a roster spot as WAR already accounts for this by design.
No, it doesn’t. It’s pretty clear that WAR doesn’t properly handle Ohtani, It’s just not the unimpeachable end-all, be-all stat y’all want it to be. To pretend that this is a walkaway for Judge is really something else. At least you didn’t go for the lame ass “AL HR Record” stuff lol