Starting Pitcher Chart – September 23rd, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb | SFG | at SDP | x | x | x | 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .285 – 28th | Remember when he had a 5.34 ERA thru early May? |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | at LAA | x | x | x | 2.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .294 – 26th | Has a 2.10 ERA v. LAA in 25.7 IP |
| Max Scherzer | LAD | at COL | x | x | x | 0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 35% K-BB | .296 – 20th | Has allowed just 1 UER in his last 5 starts (36.7 IP) |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | at MIL | x | x | x | 1.87 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .312 – 15th | Can’t believe he developed into an auto-start this yr |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | WAS | x | x | x | 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .322 – 11th | Nice 2.78 ERA since that 8 ER dud at CLE |
| Adrian Houser | MIL | STL | x | x | x | 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .304 – 23rd | ERA has been over 4.00 just once since June 1st |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | PIT | x | x | x | 5.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 33% K-BB | .310 – 17th | Hasn’t reached 6 IP since Aug 21st, but PIT should help that |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | at ARI | x | x | x | 3.60 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .277 – 30th | Ol’ Ground Chuck just keeps cookin |
| Aaron Civale^ | CLE | CWS | x | x | x | 4.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .326 – 9th | Back up to 6 IP/90 pitches last time out |
| Steven Matz | TOR | at MIN | x | x | x | 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .289 – 23rd | Hit a midseason lull, but closing strong (2.50 ERA since Aug 1) |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | SEA | x | x | x | 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .317 – 12th | Couldn’t find anything about IP limit for this return |
| Alex Cobb | LAA | HOU | x | x | 0.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .346 – 4th | Tough matchup but enough upside to take the plunge | |
| Reynaldo López^ | CWS | at CLE | x | x | 5.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .299 – 25th | The ol’ ReyLo rug pull last time out, but I’ll dive back in | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | at OAK | x | 4.98 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .315 – 17th | Too many HR (1.6) stifled the potential breakout | ||
| Zach Plesac^ | CLE | CWS | x | 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .326 – 9th | Hard not to think last yr was simply a 2-month blip | ||
| Patrick Corbin | WAS | at CIN | x | 7.62 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .273 – 28th | Matchup gives him a modicum of upside | ||
| Glenn Otto | TEX | at BAL | x | 9.37 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .316 – 13th | Hasn’t reached 5 IP since the 5 scoreless v. HOU in MLB debut | ||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | LAD | x | 5.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .349 – 7th | Have to be able to take on a ton of downside to start him | ||
| Yu Darvish | SDP | SFG | x | 6.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .353 – 2nd | Brutal matchup, can he string 2 gems together? | ||
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | ATL | 6.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .301 – 22nd | Juice not at all worth the squeeze | |||
| Michael Pineda | MIN | TOR | 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .351 – 3rd | #NeverToronto | |||
| Zac Lowther | BAL | TEX | 8.74 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .270 – 29th | The matchup doesn’t generate enough upside at all | |||
| Connor Overton | PIT | at PHI | Just 1 3-IP outing so far | .337 – 6th | No idea what to expect here |
With Oakland clawing for a wild card spot, and Bassitt returning from an injury not related to his arm, I suspect the A’s won’t limit his pitch count all that much. He threw at least 81 pitches every start before the injury and usually between 90 and 105. If he’s pitching well, I think it’s likely he tops 80 pitches.