Starting Pitcher Chart – September 21st, 2021

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September 21, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

(Pardon for the day-of posting, I wasn’t able to get it posted last night!)

September 21st Starter Chart
PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE
Brandon Woodruff MIL STL x x x 4.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 24% K-BB .310 – 18th Not in his best form, but still an easy start
Alek Manoah TOR at TBR x x x 3.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 16% K-BB .312 – 16th Rookie arm still going strong
Cal Quantrill CLE KCR x x x 1.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15% K-BB .311 – 17th 4 QS in his last 5; even went 6 IP in the non-QS
Tyler Mahle CIN PIT x x x 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 17% K-BB .300 – 24th Has a wicked home/road split, but I’m still starting here
Julio Urías LAD at COL x x x 1.57 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 23% K-BB .318 – 17th* Still an easy start unless you’re tightly protecting ratios
José Urquidy HOU at LAA x x x 2.49 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15% K-BB .285 – 26th Back on track since his IL return (3.38 ERA in 13 IP)
Kevin Gausman SFG at SDP x x x 4.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 26% K-BB .272 – 30th Not at his best lately, but still an easy start
Marcus Stroman NYM at BOS x x x 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18% K-BB .366 – 1st Tough draw, but I’m not sitting him
Antonio Senzatela COL LAD x x x 2.25 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 16% K-BB .276 – 29th Always scared of Coors, but he’s been rolling
Jordan Montgomery NYY TEX x x x 2.92 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 16% K-BB .275 – 28th Only 1 start w/>1 ER in L5, plus a great matchup
Josh Rogers WAS at MIA x x x 2.60 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10% K-BB .261 – 30th 3 solid starts and an elite matchup
Luke Weaver ARI ATL x x 2.49 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 15% K-BB .321 – 10th Closing strong to reel us back in for 2022
Tyler Alexander DET CWS x x 2.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13% K-BB .365 – 4th Solid 3.81 ERA as SP, but just 1-2 rec.
Marco Gonzales SEA at OAK x x 3.90 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10% K-BB .317 – 15th HR rate heighten volatility, but should be solid
Trevor Rogers MIA WAS x x 4.64 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 9% K-BB .373 – 3rd Sub-5 IP in last 4 means it’s a pass if you need Ws
Drew Rasmussen TBR TOR x 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 13% K-BB .350 – 2nd Quality IP, but don’t bank on a W w/5 IP max
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS NYM x 5.13 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14% K-BB .308 – 20th Feeling lucky?
Mitch Keller PIT at CIN x 4.44 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 16% K-BB .300 – 23rd CIN has been so inept that you could do this
Dane Dunning TEX at NYY 4.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 5% K-BB .328 – 8th AVG’ing <5 IP in his 22 starts cutting any W upside
Daniel Lynch KCR at CLE 5.75 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 7% K-BB .349 – 8th Not sure there’s enough upside to risk it
Jake Woodford STL at MIL 4.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7% K-BB .321 – 11th Paltry K% and too many HR mitigate upside
Alec Mills CHC MIN 5.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 13% K-BB .304 – 20th Maybe if you’re suuuper desperate
Griffin Jax MIN at CHC 9.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 8% K-BB .329 – 7th Cubs aren’t even a great matchup for RHP so easy pass
Paul Blackburn OAK SEA 4.91 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11% K-BB .304 – 22nd Kind of poor man’s Gonzales (but righthanded)
Packy Naughton LAA HOU 4.32 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4% K-BB .356 – 5th I just can’t see it
Chris Ellis BAL at PHI 2.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2% K-BB .317 – 16th Skills too brutal to feel comfortable here
Dallas Keuchel CWS at DET 10.02 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, 0% K-BB .293 – 23rd Does he make the playoff roster at this pt?
*home vL for COL





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

3 Comments
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rikoze
2 years ago

What about Musgrove?

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Paul Sporermember
2 years ago
Reply to  rikoze

He wasn’t listed as the SP. I had undecided on ESPN and Pierce Johnson on another site. He’s an auto-start though if he’s going today, even v. SF (unless you’re in FULL SCALE ratio protection mode)

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