Starting Pitcher Chart – September 20th, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

STARTING MONDAY SEPTEMBER 20TH, I’M LOOSENING MY THRESHOLDS FOR STREAMER GAMBLES. IF YOU ARE PROTECTING RATIOS, YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL AND MANAGE AS YOU SEE FIT, BUT THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE CATERING MORE TO A “GO-FOR-IT” ATTITUDE OVER THESE FINAL TWO WEEKS

(for example: Peters & Fedde have excellent matchups so despite modest skills, I’m taking a shot w/them in more spots than normal).

September 20th Starter Chart
PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE
Robbie Ray TOR at TBR x x x 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 39% K-BB .354 – 8th AL Cy putting the finishing touches on quite a yr
Carlos Rodón CWS at DET x x x 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26% K-BB .284 – 27th Under IP mgmt. for Oct., but still an easy start
Framber Valdez HOU at LAA x x x 3.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14% K-BB .290 – 26th Couple bumps last 2 starts, but no chance I’m sitting
Néstor Cortes Jr. NYY TEX x x x 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 21% K-BB .291 – 24th 1 of 2 RP converts who has been amazing at SP
Triston McKenzie^ CLE KCR x x x 1.09 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 31% K-BB .296 – 26th Curious where this young star goes in ’22 drafts
Ranger Suárez PHI BAL x x x 1.55 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22% K-BB .298 – 25th Is he a full-time SP now for ’22 as well?
Huascar Ynoa ATL at ARI x x x 4.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 21% K-BB .292 – 30th Back on track w/a 3.58 ERA & 36 Ks in 32.7 IP since IL return
Freddy Peralta MIL STL x x x 4.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 26% K-BB .302 – 21st 76 pitch avg. L2 starts so he can get 5-6 IP w/low BB
Sean Manaea OAK SEA x x x 4.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20% K-BB .300 – 22nd Inconsistent of late, but still an easy start for me
Erick Fedde WAS at MIA x x x 5.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 26% K-BB .295 – 28th Great v. MIA incl. 2x in his L5 (1.04 ERA, .86 WHIP)
Dillon Peters PIT at CIN x x x 2.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12% K-BB .271 – 30th Decent performance + elite matchup
John Means BAL at PHI x x x 3.30 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 14% K-BB .330 – 11th 1.8 HR9 fuels risk & volatility, still like the gamble
Carlos Hernandez^ KCR CLE x x 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7% K-BB .302 – 22nd Had 2.05 EA in L5 before 7 ER dud v. OAK; I’m going for it
Brady Singer^ KCR at CLE x x 3.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB .302 – 22nd Had allowed 1 HR in L8 before 5-HR dud at MIN last start
Tyler Anderson SEA at OAK x x 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 14% K-BB .314 – 18th Decent floor but low Ks keep ceiling low
Vladimir Gutierrez CIN PIT x x 5.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10% K-BB .294 – 29th Modest skills catching up in L5, but matchup is juicy
A.J. Alexy TEX at NYY x 3.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9% K-BB .312 – 15th Tough matchup & venue, but there’s some appeal here
Luke Weaver ARI ATL x 2.49 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 15% K-BB .324 – 8th Not great if chasing Ws, but solid otherwise
Logan Allen^ CLE at KCR x 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7% K-BB .296 – 26th The matchup offers a glint hope
Shane Baz TBR TOR MLB DEBUT .340 – 1st MLB Debut, but not a chance I’d start him v. TOR
Jake Woodford STL at MIL 4.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7% K-BB .313 – 13th Not enough upside to gamble (<5 IP avg. in L5)
Matt Manning DET CWS 5.01 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8% K-BB .325 – 6th Showing glimpses; don’t forget him for ’22
Jaime Barria LAA HOU 5.23 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 9% K-BB .336 – 2nd 4 IP/1 ER at HOU last time, but low K & W prob. say pass
Jesús Luzardo MIA WAS 4.78 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 11% K-BB .368 – 5th Just don’t see enough upside to eat the extreme risk
^Part of Doubleheader meaning IP could be stifled





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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TheBabbo
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TheBabbo

Thanks again – looks like Ynoa tomorrow instead of Touki, per the Braves’ website (with Tuesday TBD).