Starting Pitcher Chart – September 19th, 2024

by
September 19, 2024
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

I find Thursday’s board very interesting. Some spots to take calculated gambles, some potential landmines, some YOLO throws, and of course, some aces!
—

Starter Notes September 19, 2024
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK L30/Season NOTE
1 Chris Sale ATL at CIN x x x 172 2.35 1.00 27% 28th/21st
2 Jack Flaherty LAD at MIA x x x 151 3.04 1.05 25% 4th/25th
3 Yusei Kikuchi HOU v LAA x x x 163 4.29 1.22 21% 26th/17th
4 Logan Webb SFG at BAL x x x 193 3.53 1.24 14% 25th/7th
5 Logan Gilbert SEA v NYY x x x 191 3.24 0.89 22% 13th/1st
6 Zach Eflin BAL v SFG x x x 154 3.55 1.13 17% 24th/24th Quietly fantastic w/BAL: 2.22 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 44.7 IP
7 Clarke Schmidt NYY at SEA x x x 71 2.41 1.13 18% 7th/23rd Picked up right where he left off w/2 gems since IL return and SEA L30 surge doesn’t scare me off them
8 Joey Cantillo CLE v MIN x x x 30 4.99 1.17 17% 15th/8th Flashed his upside w/schedule soft spot (at CHW, TBR) but I’m willing to trust him v. a solid MIN lineup
9 Brayan Bello BOS at TBR x x x 152 4.60 1.38 12% 29th/29th Start v. ARI is lone dud (5+ ER) in his L11: 3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 63 IP despite a modest 11% K-BB; matchup drives the interest here
10 Kevin Gausman TOR at TEX x x x 170 4.02 1.25 14% 18th/26th My confidence has been low all yr, but he’s the kinda ace where you just eat the worse-than-expected ratios to keep the volume churning; plus, he has good ratios (2.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) in his L7 despite a weak 10% K-BB
11 Kumar Rocker TEX v TOR x x 4 2.25 1.25 29% 2nd/13th Filthy slider gives him plenty of K upside even in 3-4 IP but the lack of bankable IP v. a surging TOR offense keep from pushing him everywhere
12 Erick Fedde 페디 STL v PIT x x 164 3.45 1.18 13% 20th/28th Regression w/STL isn’t surprising & well within his outcome range (4.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), but it’s not like he’s just getting crushed out there; after 4 HR in his F3 starts, he’s allowed just 2 in his L5 & better results followed (3.71 ERA)
13 Zack Littell TBR v BOS x x 144 3.73 1.29 16% 27th/3rd He drops a dud every 6-7 starts on average but is really good in between including 11 scoreless w/2 Ws at BAL & at CLE (9 Ks/1 BB) after his “4s are Wild” start v. MIN (4 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB)
14 Luis Severino NYM v PHI x x 172 3.77 1.23 13% 9th/12th Allowed 10 ER v. MIN & at COL in early-Aug. and probably wound up on some waiver wires, since then he’s been a force: 2.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 43.3 IP
15 Luis L. Ortiz PIT at STL x x 122 3.45 1.13 11% 17th/14th Looked like he was hitting a wall w/a 6.45 ERA in his F4 Aug. starts thanks in large part to 8 HRs, only to drop 12 scoreless in next 2, only to thennn open Sept. w/2 meager starts (6.25 ERA) w/3 HRs… there’s a viable risk/reward calculation that can lead to some starts, but I’m not taking his season ERA/WHIP at face value
16 Javier Assad CHC v WSN x x 137 3.27 1.36 10% 26th/17th Held his own in Coors (6 IP/4 ER/5 Ks) not that anyone started him there, but it was good to see; has allowed >3 ER only 4x this yr
17 Brandon Pfaadt ARI at MIL x 166 4.81 1.27 17% 12th/6th 8 ER in 1.7 IP last start v. MIL certainly doesn’t add confidence, though the data says start 1 has no tangible bearing on start 2 when facing same team B2B; still I’m inclined to pass bc even before that dud last time out, he had a 6.25 ERA in his previous 8 (44.7 IP)
18 Tobias Myers MIL v ARI x 126 3.07 1.17 16% 3rd/2nd Love what Myers has done this year, but that doesn’t mean we have to be careless v. an elite offense… I’m sitting this unless I’m in YOLO mode
19 Edward Cabrera MIA v LAD x 89 4.55 1.33 15% 5th/4th I could see a YOLO dart throw bc when he’s limiting BB, he can take on anyone, but the 6-7 ER dud is always lurking to ruin a good 4-5 start run so just be mindful of the heavy risk
20 Patrick Corbin WSN at CHC 165 5.45 1.49 11% 7th/16th No.
21 José Suarez LAA at HOU 42 6.80 1.70 12% 4th/13th Has 7 scoreless since returning from the IL but I can only start him in Hail Mary situations right now
22 Simeon Woods Richardson MIN at CLE 128 4.08 1.25 12% 15th/21st Hasn’t made it 5 IP in any of his L4 and hasn’t eclipsed 5 IP in any of his L6
23 Taijuan Walker PHI at NYM 78 6.29 1.63 7% 22nd/10th
24 Julian Aguiar CIN v ATL 27 4.88 1.23 4% 23rd/19th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th) and over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

13 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
pokeyreese1995member since 2024
22 days ago

Thoughts on Hurter for tomorrow? Been dominant and Baltimore has gone cold.

4
Paul Sporermember
22 days ago
Reply to  pokeyreese1995

he’ll be on tonight’s sheet and probably 2-x range, he’s been so nice

2