Starting Pitcher Chart – September 17th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
German Marquez will start Friday after the weather ppd. for Colorado on Thursday. I’d start him across the board.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | LAD | at CIN | x | x | x | 3.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .306 – 21st | 6 ER dud at SF is his only start over 4 ER this yr |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | at NYM | x | x | x | 4.32 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .337 – 3rd | Not worried about elevated ERA in L5 |
| Logan Webb | SFG | ATL | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .312 – 16th | Putting finishing touches on a brilliant season |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | LAD | x | x | x | 3.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .294 – 24th | Not the best matchup, but I can’t see sitting him |
| Chris Sale | BOS | BAL | x | x | x | 2.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .314 – 14th | Ugly WHIP isn’t a deterrent |
| Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR | MIN | x | x | x | 6.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .276 – 29th | Struggling w/2 7 ER stinkers in L5, but I’m still starting |
| Chris Flexen 플렉센 | SEA | at KCR | x | x | x | 3.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .308 – 20th | Quietly enjoying a very solid season |
| Dylan Cease | CWS | at TEX | x | x | x | 5.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .322 – 11th | Last start really pushing the ERA, 3.00 in other 4 |
| Adrian Houser | MIL | CHC | x | x | x | 1.82 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .320 – 13th | Only 6 ER in his last 7 outings (37 IP) |
| Cole Irvin | OAK | at LAA | x | x | 7.04 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .293 – 26th | Still worth throwing in favorable matchups like this | |
| Taylor Hearn | TEX | CWS | x | x | 3.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .352 – 8th | Tough matchup, but streamers are inherently risky | |
| Taijuan Walker | NYM | PHI | x | x | 5.59 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .329 – 5th | Has gone 6+ IP in 5 of last 6 | |
| Zach Plesac | CLE | at NYY | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .324 – 8th | Underwhelmed this yr, but usable streamer | |
| Brady Singer | KCR | SEA | x | x | 3.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .293 – 25th | L7 ER shows volatility: 7, 5, 2, 1, 1, 0, 6 | |
| Luis Patiño | TBR | DET | x | x | 4.57 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .310 – 17th | Inconsistent IP totals make him a complete wildcard | |
| Elieser Hernandez | MIA | PIT | x | x | 4.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .290 – 27th | AVG’ing <5 IP in L5 w/a 2.2 HR9; matchup is the only positive | |
| Ian Anderson | ATL | at SFG | x | 4.71 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 1% K-BB | .330 – 4th | Don’t be afraid to play it safe here & pass | ||
| Miles Mikolas | STL | SDP | x | 6.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .269 – 30th | Matchup & desperation would be the only reasons to stream | ||
| Michael Pineda | MIN | at TOR | 3.92 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .355 – 1st | Never TOR is a standing rule in streaming for me | |||
| Josiah Gray | WAS | COL | 7.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .315 – 15th | Just too many HR to trust this late in the season | |||
| Wil Crowe | PIT | at MIA | 8.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .273 – 29th | Matchup not enough to lure me in here | |||
| Casey Mize | DET | at TBR | 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .308 – 19th | Back on the managed IP plan probably rest of the way | |||
| Corey Kluber | NYY | CLE | 7.98 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .297 – 23rd | Not nearly enough upside to risk this | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | at HOU | 5.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .372 – 4th | 5 ER in each of the last 3 outings | |||
| Keegan Akin | BAL | at BOS | 4.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .298 – 22nd | Your ratios will likely be Akin if you take this gamble | |||
| Vince Velasquez | SDP | at STL | 12.23 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .309 – 18th | He’s a Padre now?!?! Still unusable | |||
| Zach Davies | CHC | at MIL | 7.71 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .320 – 14th | No | |||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | at WAS | 5.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .383 – 1st | No Ks, brutal matchup, hard pass |
Love this
These are great thanks paul.
It might be splitting hairs, but I’m wondering why Freeland is the worst starter on the board for tomorrow. If you said: because he’s still not over his hip injury, I could understand that.
Is this a brutal matchup because the Nats have scored a lot of runs in the last month or so? Or because he doesn’t matchup well with their lineup? Is it because the Nats have the fewest K’s in the league on offense?
Is he really a worse start than Davies, Velazquez or Kluber?
OK, maybe I am splitting hairs.
Well, it’s not like I have a choice with my dinosaur Roto rules anyway. I’ll have to hope it’s another mediocre-poor start, like the last one in Philly, rather than a disaster, like the one in Coors against the Giants.
Nats have murdered lefties this season – first in team wOBA vs. LHP at .350, even better over the last 30 days (as shown in the next-to-last column).
But anyway, Marquez moves back to Friday because of Thursday’s rainout, Freeland to Saturday.
Ya, I think The Babbo has it right. Is he markedly worse than those others, probably not, but the disastrous matchup in addition to his weak K rate earned the bottom spot.
Also re: Marquez, I thought he’d just push back a day and even checked multiple sites, but none had updated yet so I just went w/Freeland as listed against my better instincts
OK, you guys are right. He faces bad matchups his last two starts if he stays in rotation: Giants at Coors and Nats at Coors. There is a possible way I can ditch him; let’s see what happens.
Looks like you were right about the Nats lineup. They beat up on Marquez. But I got out from under Freeland by a weekly waiver claim (every Friday night at 11 pm) of Richard Bleier, and waived Freeland goodbye.
So now he’ll throw a gem on Saturday because…well…(expletive deleted) me, that’s why.
Bleier won’t do much, but he might help my WHIP a little, or at least he won’t kill it, which I couldn’t count on from Freeland. And he might even get me a hold or two. That’s good enough, for the moment.
I like this too. Very helpful.
I sat Castillo 😭
This is really helpful. Hopefully you will do one for Saturday and Sunday for us guys that are in H2H playoffs? Thanks Paul
Just say “No” to Zach Davies. 🙂
Kyle Freeland.
The recommendation was made.
The recommendation was practical, reasonable, sensible.
I took action on it, agreeing with the thinking.
Six shutout innings and a win with 7 K. (8 runners isn’t ideal, but it might have been much worse).
Because…this is fantasy baseball, not Newtonian mechanics.