Starting Pitcher Chart – September 16th, 2022
by Paul Sporer
September 16, 2022
(Got a little DraftKings game going on Friday if you’re interested)
The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues. These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Let’s go secure some titles!
Friday’s Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | HOU | OAK | R | x | x | x | 0.85 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 28% K-BB | .297 – 20th | Could be limited off the IL, but I’m still starting him everywhere |
| Robbie Ray | SEA | at LAA | L | x | x | x | 2.05 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .313 – 15th | It’s been an excellent follow up for the reigning Cy Young |
| Max Fried | ATL | PHI | L | x | x | x | 2.03 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .347 – 7th | Elite season has been somewhat under the radar (SP14 on the yr) |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | MIN | R | x | x | x | 2.64 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .300 – 18th | The latest CLE gem has allowed >3 ER just 2x in L13 (4 ER both times) |
| Martín Pérez | TEX | at TBR | L | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .328 – 12th | I was wrong, the regression never came; missing barrels w/the CT & CH |
| Corey Kluber | TBR | TEX | R | x | x | x | 4.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .304 – 15th | 4 bombs (26 ER in 12 IP) have kept it from being a special season |
| Michael Wacha | BOS | KCR | R | x | x | x | 3.34 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .267 – 29th | The .244 BABIP & 81% LOB rate are hard carrying this success |
| Germán Márquez | COL | at CHC | R | x | x | x | 6.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .283 – 26th | QS in 5 straight ROAD starts & 8 of 9 (3.58 ERA/1.18 WHIP in 12 road GS this yr) |
| Lucas Giolito | CWS | at DET | R | x | x | x | 6.31 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .294 – 22nd | This should be a safe start, right… RIGHT??? |
| Dustin May | LAD | at SFG | R | x | x | x | 4.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .285 – 25th | Pretty patented TJ return w/8 BB in L2 after 2 gems |
| Blake Snell | SDP | at ARI | L | x | x | x | 5.18 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .264 – 28th | Couple duds mixed into L5, but still great skills + a nice matchup |
| Jack Flaherty | STL | CIN | R | x | x | x | 3.60 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .302 – 16th | Stats are 2 starts since IL return; survived 10 base runners at PIT |
| Frankie Montas | NYY | at MIL | R | x | x | x | 5.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .316 – 11th | Solid in his L4 after 6 ER in 2 of his first 3 w/NYY |
| Taijuan Walker | NYM | PIT | R | x | x | x | 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .292 – 23rd | Schedule reprieve w/at PIT-at MIA-PIT after at ATL-at NYY-LAD combo |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | at WAS | L | x | x | x | 3.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .294 – 22nd | Blasted by NYM last time out, but 4 GS before that (5 R in 1, but only 3 ER) |
| Marcus Stroman | CHC | COL | R | x | x | x | 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .268 – 28th | Riding a 2.89 ERA/1.18 WHIP in 12 starts since IL return |
| Bailey Ober | MIN | at CLE | R | x | x | IL return; out since June 1st | .282 – 27th | Worked up to 66 pitches in last rehab start (of 3); might still be sub-5 IP here | |
| Ranger Suárez | PHI | at ATL | L | x | x | 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .352 – 4th | Very scary matchup, but he hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any of L16 | |
| Logan Webb | SFG | LAD | R | x | x | 2.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .338 – 4th | Absolutely no shame dodging LA if you can’t afford to eat a dud | |
| Josiah Gray | WAS | MIA | R | x | x | 5.61 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .263 – 30th | Has allowed 10 ER in 10.7 IP v. MIA at home; be careful here | |
| Matt Manning | DET | CWS | R | x | 4.21 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .302 – 17th | 7 ER v. SEA really stung; Hail Mary only for now w/CWS surging | ||
| Michael Lorenzen | LAA | SEA | R | x | Just 1 start since IL return | .321 – 9th | Back up to 85 pitches in IL return, but be careful using him | ||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | at NYM | R | 2.92 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .339 – 3rd | Far too much risk to be anything but a true Hail Mary | |||
| Adrian Houser | MIL | NYY | R | 4.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .296 – 21st | Stats are 4 starts since IL return; easy pass even w/NYY struggles | |||
| Jonathan Heasley | KCR | at BOS | R | 4.85 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .336 – 5th | Every time he shows a little something, he undercuts a start or 2 later | |||
| Adrian Martinez | OAK | at HOU | R | 5.32 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .313 – 12th | Nope | |||
| Jordan Lyles | BAL | at TOR | R | 5.96 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .321 – 8th | Unplayable on the road: 5.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | SDP | L | 8.42 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .350 – 6th | I still can’t believe he had a 2.76 ERA thru his F9 starts | |||
| Thomas Hatch (unconfirmed) | TOR | BAL | R | 5.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 13% K-BB in MiLB | .304 – 14th | Might get the spot start | |||
| Reiver Sanmartin (unconfirmed) | CIN | at STL | L | Primary RP this yr | .392 – 2nd | It’s a very narrow list of SPs you’d roll v. STL |