Starting Pitcher Chart – September 16th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | SFG | SDP | x | x | x | 3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .266 – 29th | Dominant v. SDP in 3 GS this yr (1.42 ERA, .90 WHIP) |
| Tyler Mahle | CIN | at PIT | x | x | x | 4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .318 – 14th | He’s been a set it & forget it guy all year |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | at TEX | x | x | x | 3.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .289 – 25th | 2 poor Sept. starts won’t deter me here |
| Ian Anderson | ATL | COL | x | x | x | 4.71 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 1% K-BB | .324 – 11th* | Little bumpy since return, but an easy start here |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | at BAL | x | x | x | 3.80 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .320 – 13th | Solid SP v. BAL is an easy start down the stretch |
| Reynaldo López | CWS | LAA | x | x | 2.63 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .285 – 27th | Hit 90 pitches last start so IP concern is lessened | |
| Germán Márquez | COL | at ATL | x | x | 4.78 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .321 – 12th | Worse ratios on road, but still a usable streamer | |
| Daniel Lynch | KCR | OAK | x | 4.62 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .302 – 19th | Mostly solid since recall, but BB running high | ||
| Dietrich Enns | TBR | DET | x | 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .294 – 23rd | 1st start after several extended RP appearances | ||
| Tyler Alexander | DET | at TBR | x | 2.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .383 – 2nd | Matchup & low IP/start make him a tough start | ||
| Chris Ellis | BAL | NYY | x | 2.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .318 – 14th | Skills says be careful buying that sharp ERA | ||
| Glenn Otto | TEX | HOU | x | 6.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .328 – 8th | 5 IP/0 ER v. HOU in MLB debut, but still a risky play | ||
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | at KCR | 5.24 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .312 – 19th | No major upside even w/a decent matchup | |||
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | at PHI | 6.43 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .326 – 9th | Poor season fueled by HR surge & drop in already small K% |
Angels website shows Cobb tomorrow, FWIW. (And as for Mahle being set and forget, the drastic home/road splits might make one think twice about his two starts after this in Great American.)