Starting Pitcher Chart – October 3rd-5th, 2022

Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Last 3 Days of SPs
PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE
Jacob deGrom NYM WAS R x x x 4.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 38% K-BB .315 – 13th 0 W & 6.00 ERA in L4 despite the elite core skills
Justin Verlander HOU PHI R x x x 1.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 34% K-BB .338 – 3rd One last start for the AL Cy Young
Shohei Ohtani LAA at OAK R x x x 1.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22% K-BB .282 – 26th It’s just SUCH a shame that he won’t be in the playoffs
Brandon Woodruff MIL ARI R x x x 1.36 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 32% K-BB .314 – 14th 4 straight double-digit K games
Clayton Kershaw LAD COL L x x x 1.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 25% K-BB .208 – 29th (road only) Only concern is LAD limiting IP in the last start of the yr
Triston McKenzie CLE KCR R x x x 2.14 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 24% K-BB .311 – 15th Let’s hope he’s got one more gem for us to close out the year!
Zac Gallen ARI at MIL R x x x 2.16 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 30% K-BB .308 – 16th Sandy is the NL Cy for me, but Gallen has a strong case
Corbin Burnes MIL ARI R x x x 2.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 25% K-BB .314 – 14th ARI did get him for 5 ER a month ago, but they have since cooled down
Aaron Nola PHI at HOU R x x x 2.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26% K-BB .308 – 17th Tough matchup is the only drawback
Carlos Rodón SFG at SDP L x x x 2.03 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 39% K-BB .314 – 14th Sparkling 37% K rate in the 2nd half
Gerrit Cole NYY at TEX R x x x 4.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 29% K-BB .271 – 29th HRs are usually the culprit of his bad starts
Julio Urías LAD COL L x x x 1.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB .208 – 29th (road only) Only concern is LAD limiting IP in the last start of the yr
Yu Darvish SDP SFG R x x x 2.25 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 24% K-BB .321 – 11th Feel like his season has gone a bit under the radar (3.10 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
Patrick Sandoval LAA at OAK L x x x 2.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 14% K-BB .288 – 24th Rallied from a 6.20 ERA in July w/a 2.04 in his L9 starts
Bailey Ober MIN at CWS R x x x 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 23% K-BB .282 – 27th Stats are for 3 excellent GS since IL return
George Kirby SEA DET R x x x 3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17% K-BB .289 – 24th Could see a shortened outing, but I’m definitely starting him
Logan Gilbert SEA DET R x x x 2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 21% K-BB .289 – 24th Could see a shortened outing, but I’m definitely starting him
Jeffrey Springs TBR at BOS L x x x 1.75 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 19% K-BB .298 – 22nd Hopefully the Rays don’t cut his IP, but it’s a possibility
Max Fried ATL at MIA L x x x 2.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 22% K-BB .294 – 23rd Could be skipped if ATL is locked; be mindful if you NEED the IP
Framber Valdez HOU PHI L x x x 4.18 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 17% K-BB .317 – 13th 10 ER in his L2 starts doesn’t deter me from an auto start
Joe Musgrove SDP SFG R x x x 3.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 17% K-BB .321 – 11th 5 HR in his first 2 Sept. starts hurt, but just 1 in L3 has him back on track
Jesús Luzardo MIA ATL L x x x 3.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22% K-BB .302 – 18th Has been great in 11 starts since IL return (3.31 ERA)
Hunter Greene CIN CHC R x x x 1.23 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 31% K-BB .294 – 21st Hype Train will be in full force this winter w/excellent close
Drew Rasmussen TBR at BOS R x x x 3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB .326 – 8th Has just 1 start v. BOS this yr (6 IP/3 ER on Jul. 14th)
Lance McCullers Jr. HOU PHI R x x x 2.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16% K-BB .338 – 3rd Reeled off 7, 6, & 7 IP w/25 Ks in his L3
Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI at MIL R x x x 6.67 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 13% K-BB .308 – 16th 2 mega duds in L5, but I’m still running him
Bryce Elder ATL at MIA R x x x 0.65 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 19% K-BB .286 – 25th 4 excellent GS since mid-Aug. w/blessed schedule of WAS & MIA 2x
Luis Severino NYY at TEX R x x x 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB .271 – 29th Stats are 2 GS since IL return
Martín Pérez TEX NYY L x x x 3.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10% K-BB .308 – 17th Hopefully doesn’t spoil the brilliant season w/a dud v. NYY
Cal Quantrill CLE KCR R x x x 2.76 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB .311 – 15th Doesn’t bring much via K%, but now has a 3.18 ERA in 331 IP since ’21
Jameson Taillon NYY at TEX R x x x 3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 19% K-BB .271 – 29th Allowed >3 ER just once in his L10
José Quintana STL at PIT L x x x 0.89 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 23% K-BB .271 – 28th MM & JQ will pitch Monday but IP is unknown for both
Miles Mikolas STL at PIT R x x x 2.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB .306 – 18th MM & JQ will pitch Monday but IP is unknown for both
Taijuan Walker NYM WAS R x x x 4.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 18% K-BB .315 – 13th Solid season despite a sub-20% K rate
Aaron Civale CLE KCR R x x x 3.67 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 17% K-BB .311 – 15th Injuries undecut his yr but had a 3.26 ERA in L13 starts after 9.85 in F6
Michael Lorenzen LAA at OAK R x x x 3.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB .282 – 26th Stats are 4 GS since IL return
Domingo Germán NYY at TEX R x x x 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 12% K-BB .271 – 29th Just a 19% K rate (25% career), but he’s been v solid
Hayden Wesneski CHC at CIN R x x x 2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 19% K-BB .266 – 30th Stats are 3 GS & 2 extended relief app.; hasn’t allowed >3 ER
Adrian Sampson 샘슨 CHC at CIN R x x x 1.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8% K-BB .266 – 30th Just 4 ER in his L5 starts, 6+ IP in all 5
Alex Cobb SFG at SDP R x x x 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 11% K-BB .291 – 23rd Devastating schedule in his L5 (LAD 2x, ARI 2x, ATL)
Eric Lauer MIL ARI L x x x 6.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 17% K-BB .241 – 30th Matchup & home ERA (2.78) drive the interest
Carlos Carrasco NYM WAS R x x x 4.15 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 19% K-BB .315 – 13th Mixed bag down the stretch & WAS hasn’t been super easy for SPs
Braxton Garrett MIA ATL L x x 2.84 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB .302 – 18th Under 5 IP in 3 of his L5, but hasn’t allowed >3 ER since late-July
Nathan Eovaldi BOS TBR R x x 3.41 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 13% K-BB .275 – 28th Made it 72 pitches in 1st start since mid-Aug.
Lucas Giolito CWS MIN R x x 3.71 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 17% K-BB .297 – 19th 3 or fewer ER in all 5 Sept. starts despite the elevated WHIP
Eduardo Rodriguez DET at SEA L x x 3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8% K-BB .300 – 20th Allowed 5 ER v. HOU, but 4 QS in other starts during his L5
Johnny Cueto CWS MIN R x x 5.20 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 12% K-BB .297 – 19th 3 straight rough outings have spoiled the great season a bit
Davis Martin CWS MIN R x x 2.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13% K-BB .297 – 19th Has been a solid streamer option down the stretch
Jon Gray TEX NYY R x x 4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14% K-BB .341 – 2nd High risk w/matchup & coming off a 3-HR dud
Luis Cessa CIN CHC R x x 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9% K-BB .294 – 21st Modest upside, but not a terrible streamer option
Javier Assad CHC at CIN R x x 4.84 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7% K-BB .266 – 30th Matchup makes him a worthy streamer; K-BB% highlights the risk
Jake Odorizzi ATL at MIA R x x 6.65 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 7% K-BB .286 – 25th Big risk evidenced by 8 ER dud 2 starts ago, but just 8 ER total in other 4 GS
Josh Winder MIN at CWS R x x 5.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB .282 – 27th Hasn’t reached 5 IP in 3 of his 4 GS since IL return
Mitch Keller PIT STL R x x 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 12% K-BB .291 – 22nd Closing w/a flourish that could raise 2023 price tag
Ranger Suárez PHI at HOU L x x 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10% K-BB .357 – 2nd Difficult matchup, but options are sparse w/just 3 days left
Marco Gonzales SEA DET L x x 4.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12% K-BB .320 – 11th High risk, modest reward even v. a poor DET team
Bailey Falter PHI at HOU L x x 3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 17% K-BB .357 – 2nd Sharp downside w/HOU unless we see them sitting some studs
Dakota Hudson STL at PIT R x x 4.03 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7% K-BB .306 – 18th Interest is purely matchup driven
Louie Varland MIN at CWS R x 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 12% K-BB .282 – 27th There are certainly worse gambles out there
José Berríos TOR at BAL R x 5.61 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 7% K-BB .333 – 6th Really curious to see where he goes in 2023 drafts
Zack Greinke KCR at CLE R x 2.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4% K-BB .324 – 9th Has posted a 2.60 ERA in his L12 starts
Johan Oviedo PIT STL R x 3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10% K-BB .291 – 22nd Solid L4 incl. starts at CIN, at NYM, and at STL
Cole Irvin OAK LAA L x 8.23 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 8% K-BB .342 – 5th Stumbling to the finish line w/contact-heavy approach
Glenn Otto TEX NYY R x 4.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 14% K-BB .341 – 2nd Super high risk, but some decent upside given his strong stretch run
Sean Manaea SDP SFG L x 8.18 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 14% K-BB .285 – 26th Brutal L5 stats, but still a viable streamer given the limited options
Tony Gonsolin LAD COL R x 1.57 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 17% K-BB .278 – 23rd (road only) Might only get 3-4 IP as a tune up for the playoffs
Dean Kremer BAL TOR R x 3.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1% K-BB .352 – 1st ShO v. HOU & 4 meh sub-6 IP outings; only starting if desperate
Jonathan Heasley KCR at CLE R x 4.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1% K-BB .324 – 9th 3 GS of 6+ IP & 2 <5 IP… feeling lucky?
Tyler Alexander DET at SEA L x 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10% K-BB .300 – 20th If SEA is locked into the #2 WC, they might use some subs on Wed.
Ken Waldichuk OAK LAA L x 7.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 18% K-BB .342 – 5th The K-BB is intriguing, but matchup & downside mitigate my excitement
Daniel Lynch KCR at CLE L x 6.08 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 15% K-BB .299 – 21st Command issues breed major volatility
Graham Ashcraft CIN CHC R x 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 9% K-BB .294 – 21st 9 ER in 6.7 IP since returning from IL
Tommy Henry ARI at MIL L x 7.33 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 9% K-BB .318 – 12th 6 HR in his L2 starts have crushed him; very high risk
Bryse Wilson PIT STL R x 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 12% K-BB .291 – 22nd Did anyone roster those 8 shutout IP last time out?
Paolo Espino WAS at NYM R x 4.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20% K-BB .326 – 7th Hail Mary mode only given the matchup
Tyler Glasnow TBR at BOS R 50 pitches in 3 IP season debut .326 – 8th I guess if you just need any innings
Chris Flexen 플렉센 SEA DET R Hasn’t started since July 30th .289 – 24th Part of the doubleheader
Rich Hill BOS TBR L 4.01 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 19% K-BB .358 – 1st <5 IP per GS which severely lowers W chance & general margin for error
Nick Pivetta BOS TBR R 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 10% K-BB .275 – 28th Imagine putting your season hopes on his shoulders
Mitch White TOR at BAL R 8.71 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 4% K-BB .333 – 6th I was excited for him to get a real shot at SP, but it just hasn’t clicked
Spencer Howard TEX NYY R 1st start since early-Aug. .341 – 2nd Maybe if NYY was still sputtering on offense
Jordan Lyles BAL TOR R 5.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB .352 – 1st 3.47 home ERA comes w/a 1.36 WHIP; 10 ER in 3 GS v. TOR this yr
Bryan Garcia DET at SEA R 3.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5% K-BB .320 – 12th Has gone 6 IP in L6 AAA starts (3.75 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
Mike Baumann BAL TOR R 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7% K-BB .352 – 1st Only 2 Ks in ea. of 3 GS this yr
Cory Abbott WAS at NYM R 6.23 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 9% K-BB .326 – 7th Stats are 4 GS since rejoining the rotation
Adrián Martínez OAK LAA R 7.03 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 14% K-BB .323 – 10th LAA quietly hitting a lot better in September
José Ureña COL at LAD R 3.95 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10% K-BB .337 – 4th Hasn’t allowed >2 ER in L4, but LAD is far too scary
Chad Kuhl COL at LAD R 8.14 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 11% K-BB .337 – 4th Hasn’t allowed <3 ER since late-June
Erick Fedde WAS at NYM R 5.18 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 6% K-BB .326 – 7th Can’t do it
Garrett Hill DET at SEA R 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 0% K-BB .320 – 12th First start since mid-Aug (16 relief app. since then)
Sean Hjelle SFG at SDP R 6.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 9% K-BB .291 – 23rd 3 decent Follower outings in his L4; 6 ER v. LAD in the other one
Elieser Hernandez MIA ATL R Has been in MiLB since mid-Aug. .334 – 5th HR machine could get the last start of the yr
Yusei Kikuchi TOR at BAL L Has been RP since mid-Aug. .260 – 29th Might get Wednesday start, but I wouldn’t risk it
Ryan Feltner COL at LAD R 6.66 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 11% K-BB .337 – 4th No.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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LightenUpFGmember
4 months ago

Thanks Paul! This has been useful for weeks.