Starting Pitcher Chart – October 3rd-5th, 2022 by Paul Sporer October 3, 2022 Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues. These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. Let’s go secure some titles! Last 3 Days of SPs PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE Jacob deGrom NYM WAS R x x x 4.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 38% K-BB .315 – 13th 0 W & 6.00 ERA in L4 despite the elite core skills Justin Verlander HOU PHI R x x x 1.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 34% K-BB .338 – 3rd One last start for the AL Cy Young Shohei Ohtani LAA at OAK R x x x 1.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22% K-BB .282 – 26th It’s just SUCH a shame that he won’t be in the playoffs Brandon Woodruff MIL ARI R x x x 1.36 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 32% K-BB .314 – 14th 4 straight double-digit K games Clayton Kershaw LAD COL L x x x 1.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 25% K-BB .208 – 29th (road only) Only concern is LAD limiting IP in the last start of the yr Triston McKenzie CLE KCR R x x x 2.14 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 24% K-BB .311 – 15th Let’s hope he’s got one more gem for us to close out the year! Zac Gallen ARI at MIL R x x x 2.16 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 30% K-BB .308 – 16th Sandy is the NL Cy for me, but Gallen has a strong case Corbin Burnes MIL ARI R x x x 2.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 25% K-BB .314 – 14th ARI did get him for 5 ER a month ago, but they have since cooled down Aaron Nola PHI at HOU R x x x 2.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26% K-BB .308 – 17th Tough matchup is the only drawback Carlos Rodón SFG at SDP L x x x 2.03 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 39% K-BB .314 – 14th Sparkling 37% K rate in the 2nd half Gerrit Cole NYY at TEX R x x x 4.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 29% K-BB .271 – 29th HRs are usually the culprit of his bad starts Julio Urías LAD COL L x x x 1.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB .208 – 29th (road only) Only concern is LAD limiting IP in the last start of the yr Yu Darvish SDP SFG R x x x 2.25 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 24% K-BB .321 – 11th Feel like his season has gone a bit under the radar (3.10 ERA/0.95 WHIP) Patrick Sandoval LAA at OAK L x x x 2.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 14% K-BB .288 – 24th Rallied from a 6.20 ERA in July w/a 2.04 in his L9 starts Bailey Ober MIN at CWS R x x x 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 23% K-BB .282 – 27th Stats are for 3 excellent GS since IL return George Kirby SEA DET R x x x 3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17% K-BB .289 – 24th Could see a shortened outing, but I’m definitely starting him Logan Gilbert SEA DET R x x x 2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 21% K-BB .289 – 24th Could see a shortened outing, but I’m definitely starting him Jeffrey Springs TBR at BOS L x x x 1.75 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 19% K-BB .298 – 22nd Hopefully the Rays don’t cut his IP, but it’s a possibility Max Fried ATL at MIA L x x x 2.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 22% K-BB .294 – 23rd Could be skipped if ATL is locked; be mindful if you NEED the IP Framber Valdez HOU PHI L x x x 4.18 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 17% K-BB .317 – 13th 10 ER in his L2 starts doesn’t deter me from an auto start Joe Musgrove SDP SFG R x x x 3.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 17% K-BB .321 – 11th 5 HR in his first 2 Sept. starts hurt, but just 1 in L3 has him back on track Jesús Luzardo MIA ATL L x x x 3.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22% K-BB .302 – 18th Has been great in 11 starts since IL return (3.31 ERA) Hunter Greene CIN CHC R x x x 1.23 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 31% K-BB .294 – 21st Hype Train will be in full force this winter w/excellent close Drew Rasmussen TBR at BOS R x x x 3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB .326 – 8th Has just 1 start v. BOS this yr (6 IP/3 ER on Jul. 14th) Lance McCullers Jr. HOU PHI R x x x 2.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16% K-BB .338 – 3rd Reeled off 7, 6, & 7 IP w/25 Ks in his L3 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI at MIL R x x x 6.67 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 13% K-BB .308 – 16th 2 mega duds in L5, but I’m still running him Bryce Elder ATL at MIA R x x x 0.65 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 19% K-BB .286 – 25th 4 excellent GS since mid-Aug. w/blessed schedule of WAS & MIA 2x Luis Severino NYY at TEX R x x x 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB .271 – 29th Stats are 2 GS since IL return Martín Pérez TEX NYY L x x x 3.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10% K-BB .308 – 17th Hopefully doesn’t spoil the brilliant season w/a dud v. NYY Cal Quantrill CLE KCR R x x x 2.76 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB .311 – 15th Doesn’t bring much via K%, but now has a 3.18 ERA in 331 IP since ’21 Jameson Taillon NYY at TEX R x x x 3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 19% K-BB .271 – 29th Allowed >3 ER just once in his L10 José Quintana STL at PIT L x x x 0.89 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 23% K-BB .271 – 28th MM & JQ will pitch Monday but IP is unknown for both Miles Mikolas STL at PIT R x x x 2.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB .306 – 18th MM & JQ will pitch Monday but IP is unknown for both Taijuan Walker NYM WAS R x x x 4.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 18% K-BB .315 – 13th Solid season despite a sub-20% K rate Aaron Civale CLE KCR R x x x 3.67 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 17% K-BB .311 – 15th Injuries undecut his yr but had a 3.26 ERA in L13 starts after 9.85 in F6 Michael Lorenzen LAA at OAK R x x x 3.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB .282 – 26th Stats are 4 GS since IL return Domingo Germán NYY at TEX R x x x 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 12% K-BB .271 – 29th Just a 19% K rate (25% career), but he’s been v solid Hayden Wesneski CHC at CIN R x x x 2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 19% K-BB .266 – 30th Stats are 3 GS & 2 extended relief app.; hasn’t allowed >3 ER Adrian Sampson 샘슨 CHC at CIN R x x x 1.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8% K-BB .266 – 30th Just 4 ER in his L5 starts, 6+ IP in all 5 Alex Cobb SFG at SDP R x x x 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 11% K-BB .291 – 23rd Devastating schedule in his L5 (LAD 2x, ARI 2x, ATL) Eric Lauer MIL ARI L x x x 6.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 17% K-BB .241 – 30th Matchup & home ERA (2.78) drive the interest Carlos Carrasco NYM WAS R x x x 4.15 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 19% K-BB .315 – 13th Mixed bag down the stretch & WAS hasn’t been super easy for SPs Braxton Garrett MIA ATL L x x 2.84 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB .302 – 18th Under 5 IP in 3 of his L5, but hasn’t allowed >3 ER since late-July Nathan Eovaldi BOS TBR R x x 3.41 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 13% K-BB .275 – 28th Made it 72 pitches in 1st start since mid-Aug. Lucas Giolito CWS MIN R x x 3.71 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 17% K-BB .297 – 19th 3 or fewer ER in all 5 Sept. starts despite the elevated WHIP Eduardo Rodriguez DET at SEA L x x 3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8% K-BB .300 – 20th Allowed 5 ER v. HOU, but 4 QS in other starts during his L5 Johnny Cueto CWS MIN R x x 5.20 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 12% K-BB .297 – 19th 3 straight rough outings have spoiled the great season a bit Davis Martin CWS MIN R x x 2.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13% K-BB .297 – 19th Has been a solid streamer option down the stretch Jon Gray TEX NYY R x x 4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14% K-BB .341 – 2nd High risk w/matchup & coming off a 3-HR dud Luis Cessa CIN CHC R x x 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9% K-BB .294 – 21st Modest upside, but not a terrible streamer option Javier Assad CHC at CIN R x x 4.84 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7% K-BB .266 – 30th Matchup makes him a worthy streamer; K-BB% highlights the risk Jake Odorizzi ATL at MIA R x x 6.65 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 7% K-BB .286 – 25th Big risk evidenced by 8 ER dud 2 starts ago, but just 8 ER total in other 4 GS Josh Winder MIN at CWS R x x 5.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB .282 – 27th Hasn’t reached 5 IP in 3 of his 4 GS since IL return Mitch Keller PIT STL R x x 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 12% K-BB .291 – 22nd Closing w/a flourish that could raise 2023 price tag Ranger Suárez PHI at HOU L x x 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10% K-BB .357 – 2nd Difficult matchup, but options are sparse w/just 3 days left Marco Gonzales SEA DET L x x 4.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12% K-BB .320 – 11th High risk, modest reward even v. a poor DET team Bailey Falter PHI at HOU L x x 3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 17% K-BB .357 – 2nd Sharp downside w/HOU unless we see them sitting some studs Dakota Hudson STL at PIT R x x 4.03 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7% K-BB .306 – 18th Interest is purely matchup driven Louie Varland MIN at CWS R x 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 12% K-BB .282 – 27th There are certainly worse gambles out there José Berríos TOR at BAL R x 5.61 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 7% K-BB .333 – 6th Really curious to see where he goes in 2023 drafts Zack Greinke KCR at CLE R x 2.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4% K-BB .324 – 9th Has posted a 2.60 ERA in his L12 starts Johan Oviedo PIT STL R x 3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10% K-BB .291 – 22nd Solid L4 incl. starts at CIN, at NYM, and at STL Cole Irvin OAK LAA L x 8.23 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 8% K-BB .342 – 5th Stumbling to the finish line w/contact-heavy approach Glenn Otto TEX NYY R x 4.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 14% K-BB .341 – 2nd Super high risk, but some decent upside given his strong stretch run Sean Manaea SDP SFG L x 8.18 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 14% K-BB .285 – 26th Brutal L5 stats, but still a viable streamer given the limited options Tony Gonsolin LAD COL R x 1.57 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 17% K-BB .278 – 23rd (road only) Might only get 3-4 IP as a tune up for the playoffs Dean Kremer BAL TOR R x 3.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1% K-BB .352 – 1st ShO v. HOU & 4 meh sub-6 IP outings; only starting if desperate Jonathan Heasley KCR at CLE R x 4.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1% K-BB .324 – 9th 3 GS of 6+ IP & 2 <5 IP… feeling lucky? Tyler Alexander DET at SEA L x 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10% K-BB .300 – 20th If SEA is locked into the #2 WC, they might use some subs on Wed. Ken Waldichuk OAK LAA L x 7.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 18% K-BB .342 – 5th The K-BB is intriguing, but matchup & downside mitigate my excitement Daniel Lynch KCR at CLE L x 6.08 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 15% K-BB .299 – 21st Command issues breed major volatility Graham Ashcraft CIN CHC R x 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 9% K-BB .294 – 21st 9 ER in 6.7 IP since returning from IL Tommy Henry ARI at MIL L x 7.33 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 9% K-BB .318 – 12th 6 HR in his L2 starts have crushed him; very high risk Bryse Wilson PIT STL R x 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 12% K-BB .291 – 22nd Did anyone roster those 8 shutout IP last time out? Paolo Espino WAS at NYM R x 4.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20% K-BB .326 – 7th Hail Mary mode only given the matchup Tyler Glasnow TBR at BOS R 50 pitches in 3 IP season debut .326 – 8th I guess if you just need any innings Chris Flexen 플렉센 SEA DET R Hasn’t started since July 30th .289 – 24th Part of the doubleheader Rich Hill BOS TBR L 4.01 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 19% K-BB .358 – 1st <5 IP per GS which severely lowers W chance & general margin for error Nick Pivetta BOS TBR R 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 10% K-BB .275 – 28th Imagine putting your season hopes on his shoulders Mitch White TOR at BAL R 8.71 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 4% K-BB .333 – 6th I was excited for him to get a real shot at SP, but it just hasn’t clicked Spencer Howard TEX NYY R 1st start since early-Aug. .341 – 2nd Maybe if NYY was still sputtering on offense Jordan Lyles BAL TOR R 5.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB .352 – 1st 3.47 home ERA comes w/a 1.36 WHIP; 10 ER in 3 GS v. TOR this yr Bryan Garcia DET at SEA R 3.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5% K-BB .320 – 12th Has gone 6 IP in L6 AAA starts (3.75 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) Mike Baumann BAL TOR R 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7% K-BB .352 – 1st Only 2 Ks in ea. of 3 GS this yr Cory Abbott WAS at NYM R 6.23 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 9% K-BB .326 – 7th Stats are 4 GS since rejoining the rotation Adrián Martínez OAK LAA R 7.03 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 14% K-BB .323 – 10th LAA quietly hitting a lot better in September José Ureña COL at LAD R 3.95 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10% K-BB .337 – 4th Hasn’t allowed >2 ER in L4, but LAD is far too scary Chad Kuhl COL at LAD R 8.14 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 11% K-BB .337 – 4th Hasn’t allowed <3 ER since late-June Erick Fedde WAS at NYM R 5.18 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 6% K-BB .326 – 7th Can’t do it Garrett Hill DET at SEA R 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 0% K-BB .320 – 12th First start since mid-Aug (16 relief app. since then) Sean Hjelle SFG at SDP R 6.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 9% K-BB .291 – 23rd 3 decent Follower outings in his L4; 6 ER v. LAD in the other one Elieser Hernandez MIA ATL R Has been in MiLB since mid-Aug. .334 – 5th HR machine could get the last start of the yr Yusei Kikuchi TOR at BAL L Has been RP since mid-Aug. .260 – 29th Might get Wednesday start, but I wouldn’t risk it Ryan Feltner COL at LAD R 6.66 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 11% K-BB .337 – 4th No.