Starting Pitcher Chart – October 3rd-5th, 2022

October 3, 2022

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Last 3 Days of SPs

PITCHER	TM	OPP	THR	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Jacob deGrom	NYM	WAS	R	x	x	x	4.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 38% K-BB	.315 – 13th	0 W & 6.00 ERA in L4 despite the elite core skills
Justin Verlander	HOU	PHI	R	x	x	x	1.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 34% K-BB	.338 – 3rd	One last start for the AL Cy Young
Shohei Ohtani	LAA	at OAK	R	x	x	x	1.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.282 – 26th	It’s just SUCH a shame that he won’t be in the playoffs
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	ARI	R	x	x	x	1.36 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 32% K-BB	.314 – 14th	4 straight double-digit K games
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	COL	L	x	x	x	1.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 25% K-BB	.208 – 29th (road only)	Only concern is LAD limiting IP in the last start of the yr
Triston McKenzie	CLE	KCR	R	x	x	x	2.14 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 24% K-BB	.311 – 15th	Let’s hope he’s got one more gem for us to close out the year!
Zac Gallen	ARI	at MIL	R	x	x	x	2.16 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 30% K-BB	.308 – 16th	Sandy is the NL Cy for me, but Gallen has a strong case
Corbin Burnes	MIL	ARI	R	x	x	x	2.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 25% K-BB	.314 – 14th	ARI did get him for 5 ER a month ago, but they have since cooled down
Aaron Nola	PHI	at HOU	R	x	x	x	2.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26% K-BB	.308 – 17th	Tough matchup is the only drawback
Carlos Rodón	SFG	at SDP	L	x	x	x	2.03 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 39% K-BB	.314 – 14th	Sparkling 37% K rate in the 2nd half
Gerrit Cole	NYY	at TEX	R	x	x	x	4.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 29% K-BB	.271 – 29th	HRs are usually the culprit of his bad starts
Julio Urías	LAD	COL	L	x	x	x	1.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.208 – 29th (road only)	Only concern is LAD limiting IP in the last start of the yr
Yu Darvish	SDP	SFG	R	x	x	x	2.25 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 24% K-BB	.321 – 11th	Feel like his season has gone a bit under the radar (3.10 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
Patrick Sandoval	LAA	at OAK	L	x	x	x	2.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.288 – 24th	Rallied from a 6.20 ERA in July w/a 2.04 in his L9 starts
Bailey Ober	MIN	at CWS	R	x	x	x	1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.282 – 27th	Stats are for 3 excellent GS since IL return
George Kirby	SEA	DET	R	x	x	x	3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.289 – 24th	Could see a shortened outing, but I’m definitely starting him
Logan Gilbert	SEA	DET	R	x	x	x	2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.289 – 24th	Could see a shortened outing, but I’m definitely starting him
Jeffrey Springs	TBR	at BOS	L	x	x	x	1.75 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.298 – 22nd	Hopefully the Rays don’t cut his IP, but it’s a possibility
Max Fried	ATL	at MIA	L	x	x	x	2.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.294 – 23rd	Could be skipped if ATL is locked; be mindful if you NEED the IP
Framber Valdez	HOU	PHI	L	x	x	x	4.18 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.317 – 13th	10 ER in his L2 starts doesn’t deter me from an auto start
Joe Musgrove	SDP	SFG	R	x	x	x	3.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.321 – 11th	5 HR in his first 2 Sept. starts hurt, but just 1 in L3 has him back on track
Jesús Luzardo	MIA	ATL	L	x	x	x	3.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.302 – 18th	Has been great in 11 starts since IL return (3.31 ERA)
Hunter Greene	CIN	CHC	R	x	x	x	1.23 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 31% K-BB	.294 – 21st	Hype Train will be in full force this winter w/excellent close
Drew Rasmussen	TBR	at BOS	R	x	x	x	3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.326 – 8th	Has just 1 start v. BOS this yr (6 IP/3 ER on Jul. 14th)
Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	PHI	R	x	x	x	2.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.338 – 3rd	Reeled off 7, 6, & 7 IP w/25 Ks in his L3
Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at MIL	R	x	x	x	6.67 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.308 – 16th	2 mega duds in L5, but I’m still running him
Bryce Elder	ATL	at MIA	R	x	x	x	0.65 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.286 – 25th	4 excellent GS since mid-Aug. w/blessed schedule of WAS & MIA 2x
Luis Severino	NYY	at TEX	R	x	x	x	3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.271 – 29th	Stats are 2 GS since IL return
Martín Pérez	TEX	NYY	L	x	x	x	3.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.308 – 17th	Hopefully doesn’t spoil the brilliant season w/a dud v. NYY
Cal Quantrill	CLE	KCR	R	x	x	x	2.76 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.311 – 15th	Doesn’t bring much via K%, but now has a 3.18 ERA in 331 IP since ’21
Jameson Taillon	NYY	at TEX	R	x	x	x	3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.271 – 29th	Allowed >3 ER just once in his L10
José Quintana	STL	at PIT	L	x	x	x	0.89 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.271 – 28th	MM & JQ will pitch Monday but IP is unknown for both
Miles Mikolas	STL	at PIT	R	x	x	x	2.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.306 – 18th	MM & JQ will pitch Monday but IP is unknown for both
Taijuan Walker	NYM	WAS	R	x	x	x	4.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.315 – 13th	Solid season despite a sub-20% K rate
Aaron Civale	CLE	KCR	R	x	x	x	3.67 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.311 – 15th	Injuries undecut his yr but had a 3.26 ERA in L13 starts after 9.85 in F6
Michael Lorenzen	LAA	at OAK	R	x	x	x	3.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.282 – 26th	Stats are 4 GS since IL return
Domingo Germán	NYY	at TEX	R	x	x	x	3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.271 – 29th	Just a 19% K rate (25% career), but he’s been v solid
Hayden Wesneski	CHC	at CIN	R	x	x	x	2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.266 – 30th	Stats are 3 GS & 2 extended relief app.; hasn’t allowed >3 ER
Adrian Sampson 샘슨	CHC	at CIN	R	x	x	x	1.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.266 – 30th	Just 4 ER in his L5 starts, 6+ IP in all 5
Alex Cobb	SFG	at SDP	R	x	x	x	4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.291 – 23rd	Devastating schedule in his L5 (LAD 2x, ARI 2x, ATL)
Eric Lauer	MIL	ARI	L	x	x	x	6.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.241 – 30th	Matchup & home ERA (2.78) drive the interest
Carlos Carrasco	NYM	WAS	R	x	x	x	4.15 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.315 – 13th	Mixed bag down the stretch & WAS hasn’t been super easy for SPs
Braxton Garrett	MIA	ATL	L		x	x	2.84 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.302 – 18th	Under 5 IP in 3 of his L5, but hasn’t allowed >3 ER since late-July
Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	TBR	R		x	x	3.41 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.275 – 28th	Made it 72 pitches in 1st start since mid-Aug.
Lucas Giolito	CWS	MIN	R		x	x	3.71 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.297 – 19th	3 or fewer ER in all 5 Sept. starts despite the elevated WHIP
Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	at SEA	L		x	x	3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.300 – 20th	Allowed 5 ER v. HOU, but 4 QS in other starts during his L5
Johnny Cueto	CWS	MIN	R		x	x	5.20 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.297 – 19th	3 straight rough outings have spoiled the great season a bit
Davis Martin	CWS	MIN	R		x	x	2.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.297 – 19th	Has been a solid streamer option down the stretch
Jon Gray	TEX	NYY	R		x	x	4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.341 – 2nd	High risk w/matchup & coming off a 3-HR dud
Luis Cessa	CIN	CHC	R		x	x	4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.294 – 21st	Modest upside, but not a terrible streamer option
Javier Assad	CHC	at CIN	R		x	x	4.84 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.266 – 30th	Matchup makes him a worthy streamer; K-BB% highlights the risk
Jake Odorizzi	ATL	at MIA	R		x	x	6.65 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.286 – 25th	Big risk evidenced by 8 ER dud 2 starts ago, but just 8 ER total in other 4 GS
Josh Winder	MIN	at CWS	R		x	x	5.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.282 – 27th	Hasn’t reached 5 IP in 3 of his 4 GS since IL return
Mitch Keller	PIT	STL	R		x	x	1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.291 – 22nd	Closing w/a flourish that could raise 2023 price tag
Ranger Suárez	PHI	at HOU	L		x	x	3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.357 – 2nd	Difficult matchup, but options are sparse w/just 3 days left
Marco Gonzales	SEA	DET	L		x	x	4.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.320 – 11th	High risk, modest reward even v. a poor DET team
Bailey Falter	PHI	at HOU	L		x	x	3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.357 – 2nd	Sharp downside w/HOU unless we see them sitting some studs
Dakota Hudson	STL	at PIT	R		x	x	4.03 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.306 – 18th	Interest is purely matchup driven
Louie Varland	MIN	at CWS	R			x	4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.282 – 27th	There are certainly worse gambles out there
José Berríos	TOR	at BAL	R			x	5.61 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.333 – 6th	Really curious to see where he goes in 2023 drafts
Zack Greinke	KCR	at CLE	R			x	2.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4% K-BB	.324 – 9th	Has posted a 2.60 ERA in his L12 starts
Johan Oviedo	PIT	STL	R			x	3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.291 – 22nd	Solid L4 incl. starts at CIN, at NYM, and at STL
Cole Irvin	OAK	LAA	L			x	8.23 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.342 – 5th	Stumbling to the finish line w/contact-heavy approach
Glenn Otto	TEX	NYY	R			x	4.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.341 – 2nd	Super high risk, but some decent upside given his strong stretch run
Sean Manaea	SDP	SFG	L			x	8.18 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.285 – 26th	Brutal L5 stats, but still a viable streamer given the limited options
Tony Gonsolin	LAD	COL	R			x	1.57 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.278 – 23rd (road only)	Might only get 3-4 IP as a tune up for the playoffs
Dean Kremer	BAL	TOR	R			x	3.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1% K-BB	.352 – 1st	ShO v. HOU & 4 meh sub-6 IP outings; only starting if desperate
Jonathan Heasley	KCR	at CLE	R			x	4.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1% K-BB	.324 – 9th	3 GS of 6+ IP & 2 <5 IP… feeling lucky?
Tyler Alexander	DET	at SEA	L			x	4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.300 – 20th	If SEA is locked into the #2 WC, they might use some subs on Wed.
Ken Waldichuk	OAK	LAA	L			x	7.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.342 – 5th	The K-BB is intriguing, but matchup & downside mitigate my excitement
Daniel Lynch	KCR	at CLE	L			x	6.08 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.299 – 21st	Command issues breed major volatility
Graham Ashcraft	CIN	CHC	R			x	5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.294 – 21st	9 ER in 6.7 IP since returning from IL
Tommy Henry	ARI	at MIL	L			x	7.33 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.318 – 12th	6 HR in his L2 starts have crushed him; very high risk
Bryse Wilson	PIT	STL	R			x	3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.291 – 22nd	Did anyone roster those 8 shutout IP last time out?
Paolo Espino	WAS	at NYM	R			x	4.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.326 – 7th	Hail Mary mode only given the matchup
Tyler Glasnow	TBR	at BOS	R				50 pitches in 3 IP season debut	.326 – 8th	I guess if you just need any innings
Chris Flexen 플렉센	SEA	DET	R				Hasn’t started since July 30th	.289 – 24th	Part of the doubleheader
Rich Hill	BOS	TBR	L				4.01 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.358 – 1st	<5 IP per GS which severely lowers W chance & general margin for error
Nick Pivetta	BOS	TBR	R				5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.275 – 28th	Imagine putting your season hopes on his shoulders
Mitch White	TOR	at BAL	R				8.71 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 4% K-BB	.333 – 6th	I was excited for him to get a real shot at SP, but it just hasn’t clicked
Spencer Howard	TEX	NYY	R				1st start since early-Aug.	.341 – 2nd	Maybe if NYY was still sputtering on offense
Jordan Lyles	BAL	TOR	R				5.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.352 – 1st	3.47 home ERA comes w/a 1.36 WHIP; 10 ER in 3 GS v. TOR this yr
Bryan Garcia	DET	at SEA	R				3.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5% K-BB	.320 – 12th	Has gone 6 IP in L6 AAA starts (3.75 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
Mike Baumann	BAL	TOR	R				4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.352 – 1st	Only 2 Ks in ea. of 3 GS this yr
Cory Abbott	WAS	at NYM	R				6.23 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.326 – 7th	Stats are 4 GS since rejoining the rotation
Adrián Martínez	OAK	LAA	R				7.03 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.323 – 10th	LAA quietly hitting a lot better in September
José Ureña	COL	at LAD	R				3.95 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.337 – 4th	Hasn’t allowed >2 ER in L4, but LAD is far too scary
Chad Kuhl	COL	at LAD	R				8.14 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.337 – 4th	Hasn’t allowed <3 ER since late-June
Erick Fedde	WAS	at NYM	R				5.18 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.326 – 7th	Can’t do it
Garrett Hill	DET	at SEA	R				3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 0% K-BB	.320 – 12th	First start since mid-Aug (16 relief app. since then)
Sean Hjelle	SFG	at SDP	R				6.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.291 – 23rd	3 decent Follower outings in his L4; 6 ER v. LAD in the other one
Elieser Hernandez	MIA	ATL	R				Has been in MiLB since mid-Aug.	.334 – 5th	HR machine could get the last start of the yr
Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	at BAL	L				Has been RP since mid-Aug.	.260 – 29th	Might get Wednesday start, but I wouldn’t risk it
Ryan Feltner	COL	at LAD	R				6.66 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.337 – 4th	No.