Big Kid Adds (Week 6)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Romy Gonzalez (10): After the injury to Triston Casas, Gonzalez (.308/.362/.423, 0 HR, 3 SB) was tabbed to at least be on the short side of the first base platoon. Over his career, he has a .576 OPS against lefties and a .795 OPS against righties.

Since Casas’s injury, Gonzalez started in two out of three games. Gonzalez isn’t a difference maker, so he needs to start every game to be an accumulator. Note: He got banged up on Wednesday, so check in on his health status.

Daniel Schneemann (9): Schneemann starts about two-thirds of the time at second or in the outfield since Gabriel Arias took over at shortstop. The 28-year-old is showing more power this season with his average exit velocity (88.5 mph to 91.1 mph), HardHit% (38% to 50%), and Bat Speed (70.7 mph to 72.3 mph) all up. He did this while lowering his strikeout rate from 32% to 25%.

All the improvements have him with 5 HR and a .288 AVG in 75. He’s at least a bench bat to fill in for injuries since he’s qualified at second, short, and outfield.

Javier Báez (8): This is the fourth straight season Báez has cut his swinging strike-rate (22% to 19% to 17% to 15% to 13%). The problem is that his power died. His home runs dropped from 31 to 17 to 9 to 6. So far this season, he has 3 HR. After a pedestrian .111 ISO in April, it’s up to .538 in May.

The improvement coincided with his move to center field (1.125 OPS, 3 HR) for 11 games. Here is his 11-game OPS rolling average.

While he didn’t hit at his current level in 2024, he was able to in 2022 and 2023. Now, can he maintain the higher production?

Colt Keith (8): He had a three-game stretch where he started every game before these league’s FAAB runs. The deal is that he doesn’t start against lefties and doesn’t have a set position, having started at first, second, and third over those three games.

Zach Dezenzo (7): With 10 starts in the last 14 games, Dezenzo became fantasy relevant. He has been solid (.269/.333/.404) but has just one home run and a steal. Decent bench injury replacement.

Dane Myers (7): Myers started five straight in centerfield while posting decent numbers this season (.361/.403.528, .460 BABIP, 3 HR, 6 SB). The playing time and stats didn’t always look so good. After coming in as a pinch runner on April 25th, he was hitting .286/.300/.388 with 1 HR and 2 SB in 50 PA. Since them, he’s batting .522/.593/.826 with 2 HR and 4 SB in 27 PA. Here is a rolling OPS to see if he’s experienced similar stretches.

He’s seen similar 12-game peaks, but this year’s key has been avoiding the huge drop-offs.

Jhonkensy Noel (7): Started three straight games going into this FAAB run. Since then, he hasn’t started. While showing some power (2 HR), he’s ineffective (.174/.194/.290). He might be a drop next week.

Coby Mayo (6): It took injuries to Jordan Westburg (.657 OPS) and Ramón Urías (.756 OPS) for Mayo (.870 OPS in AAA) to get another chance in the majors. Last season, he struggled, hitting just .098/.196/.098 in 9 PA. Mayo must take advantage of this opportunity to force himself on the MLB roster. So far, he’s failing with 5 K in 9 PA.

Kyren Paris (5): It’s interesting to see new managers adding to Paris after his original managers dumped him. Since Paris’s early two-homer game, he’s hitting .141/.208/.225 (45% K%) with 1 HR and 1 SB in 78 PA. Drop/ignore.

Isaac Collins (5): After playing in 11 games last season, Collins is back as the team’s left fielder. So far, he has started in eight of the last nine games while batting .264/.350/.396 with 1 HR and 3 SB. Those stolen bases are Collins’s calling card with 29 SB in 2023 and 24 SB in 2024. I don’t think there is much to get excited about with the 27-year-old. For reference, here are players with similar Steamer600 projections.

No one is rushing out to add any of the others. Collins’s only value stems from him being in the lineup every day.

Connor Wong (5): While Wong only has a .369 OPS this season, he’s been solid over his career. Last year, he hit .280/.333/.425 with 13 HR and 8 SB in 487 PA. In most of these leagues, 30 catchers are rostered, so any catcher who contributes to just one category needs to be rostered, let alone three.

Trey Sweeney (5): With Baez playing in centerfield, Sweeney started 15 straight games at shortstop. He’s been solid by hitting .252/.336/.378 with 3 HR and 2 SB. Solid contributor so far.

Starters

Gunnar Hoglund (11): In two starts, he’s been great with a 2.38 ERA (2.97 xFIP), 7.9 K/9, and 1.06 WHIP. The STUPH models love his changeup and command, with his other offering being middling. I think as long as he remains efficient, he’ll remain in the rotation after throwing 130 IP last season. Some team in every league needs to be adding him.

Tony Gonsolin (9): In two starts since coming off the IL, he has a 4.09 ERA (2.21 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, and 13.9 K/9. He’s doing it with a 93.5 mph fastball and secondaries with a ton of swing-and-miss.

Pitch: SwStr%
Slider: 28%
Splitter: 33%
Curveball: 16%

The STUPH models (3.99 botERA, 98 Pitching+) put him as an average pitcher. A must-roster at this point to see if he can continue to slice through lineups.

Hunter Dobbins (9): In three major league starts, the 25-year-old righty has a 3.78 ERA (4.22 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP, and 7.0 K/9. There was talk he was supposed to start this week, but now he’s not. There is a decent chance he’s going to follow Lance McCullers Jr.

His STUPH grades are inconsistent but put his overall talent is around league average (52 botOvr, 98 Pitching+). For results, the slider (64% GB%, 17% SwStr%) and curve (28% SwStr%) are his best two pitches.

I’m not sure he needs to be rostered in most leagues. The depth of these leagues and the lack of waiver wire options were behind his demand.

Sean Burke (7): Even ignoring the whole “he pitches for the White Sox thing”, he’s not good with a 4.35 ERA (5.41 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9. Among qualified pitchers, his 5.8% K% K%-BB% ranks 82nd of 84. Ignore.

Michael Soroka (7): The last time the 27-year-old Soroka mattered in fantasy leagues was in 2019. Since then, he’s only thrown 130 IP with a 5.17 ERA (4.57 xFIP), 1.39 WHIP (4.4 BB/9), and 8.5 K/9. While he has a 7.20 ERA (3.08 xFIP, 48% LOB%), his underlying stats show improvement. He’s simply striking out more batters and walking fewer of them.

The reason for the higher strikeouts is a career-high 93-mph fastball. The STUPH models like both his fastballs and are split on his secondaries (slider and change). The STUPH models love his low walk rate. Additionally, his 31% Ball% points to a 1.9 BB/9.

It has been just two starts, but he might have turned a corner and could be worth adding in leagues with no starters on the waiver wire. Keep an eye on his walk rate since he’s previously shown similar two-game drops.

Ryne Nelson (6): Nelson got a spot start on Monday when he went 4 IP with 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 H, and just 2 K. He’s likely out of the rotation and headed to the bullpen.

Relievers

Zach Agnos (10): Got two Saves last week and seems to be the closer. The surface stats are great (0.75 WHIP, 0.00 ERA), but he has struck out only one batter. At least he hasn’t walked anyone.

He should be getting more strikeouts since his most thrown pitches, cutter and splitter, cause a ton of swings-and-misses (cutter: 13% SwStr%, splitter 24% SwStr%).

An obvious add in leagues where every closer is rostered.

Evan Phillips (8): Recorded a Save last Friday but ended back on the IL.

Kevin Ginkel (7): Since returning from the IL, the potential closer struggled with 3 BB and 4 Hits in only 3 IP, leading to a 5.40 ERA. He’s not the closer, but he might eventually end up with some Saves.