Starting Pitcher Chart – May 9th, 2025

May 8, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

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Starter Notes May 9, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	2025 wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Tarik Skubal	DET v TEX	x	x	x	40	2.21	0.98	27%	21st
2	Hunter Brown	HOU v CIN	x	x	x	43	1.67	0.88	25%	17th
3	Max Meyer	MIA at CHW	x	x	x	39	3.92	1.36	20%	30th
4	Aaron Nola	PHI at CLE	x	x	x	41	4.61	1.32	18%	19th
5	Clay Holmes	NYM v CHC	x	x	x	36	2.95	1.28	17%	5th
6	Luis Castillo	SEA v TOR	x	x	x	38	3.29	1.33	8%	27th	Just 1 ER in 12 IP over his L2, though still w/a meager 7 K/4 BB output; ERA is masking some mediocrity, but the track record keeps him in the rotation for now espec. in a matchup like this
7	Kevin Gausman	TOR at SEA	x	x	x	40	3.83	0.93	16%	3rd	I can’t see sitting Gaus w/his sub-1.00 WHIP even if this wasn’t a light board
8	Jose Quintana	MIL at TBR	x	x	x	28	2.83	1.22	10%	28th	A 3rd straight lefty for TBR making it hard for them to take advantage of their homestand; lack of many options elevates Q to even some shallow lg consideration
9	Nick Martinez	CIN at HOU	x	x	x	38	4.19	1.24	13%	24th	An out shy of 3 straight QS after a sluggish start (6.00 ERA in 4 starts); catching HOU at a good time, too
10	Jameson Taillon	CHC at NYM		x	x	39	3.86	1.03	14%	11th	Has just a 2.80 ERA w/a capable 16% K-BB in 6 starts after ARI cooked him for 6 ER in his season debut
11	Hunter Dobbins	BOS at KCR		x	x	16	3.78	1.32	12%	25th	Some solid work in 3 starts plus a juicy matchup give Dobbins some streamer intrigue, especially on this weak slate (yes, I’m going to keep hammering how few options there are!)
12	Mitchell Parker	WSN v STL			x	41	3.48	1.21	1%	12th	Still toting a mid-3.00s after B2B duds underscores how good his first 5 were (1.39 ERA)
13	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI v LAD			x	38	5.92	1.47	19%	4th	Rebounded from 8 ER/1 K gm to fan 10 Phillies though still allowed 3 ER in 5.3 IP; core skills have been nice, still very tough to run v. LAD
14	Gavin Williams	CLE v PHI			x	32	5.06	1.75	12%	6th	Gav and Roki were chased heavily throughout draft season and now both are rightly starting to pop up on some shallower lg waiver wires… a few more starts like we’ve seen thus far could put them on the deep lg chopping block
15	Roki Sasaki	LAD at ARI			x	30	3.86	1.45	3%	2nd	I can barely muster confidence for Gav or Roki on a board featuring just nine 3-x options and I was a huge Williams fan in draft season
16	Michael Lorenzen	KCR v BOS			x	38	4.23	1.41	11%	8th	High-risk, modest-reward with a really tough matchup
17	Tomoyuki Sugano	BAL at LAA			x	39	3.00	1.13	8%	23rd	I don’t see how the ERA stays this good w/an 8% K-BB and 1.6 HR9
18	Osvaldo Bido	ATH v NYY			x	36	4.71	1.46	4%	4th	His first 5 highlight the volatility of these types: after allowing just 6 ER in his first 4, he allowed 8 ER to TEX and completely spoiled the good work, so like Lorenzen it’s a high-risk, modest-reward proposition with an even tougher matchup
19	Will Warren	NYY at ATH				28	5.65	1.53	15%	12th	Similar to Bido where his lack of IP (~4/start) gives him very little margin for error so while I think he will have bouts of streamer viability throughout the yr, it’ll always be risky w/substantial blowup potential
20	Zack Littell	TBR v MIL				41	4.61	1.10	10%	20th
21	Jordan Hicks	SFG at MIN				37	6.03	1.45	12%	21st
22	Erick Fedde 페디	STL at WSN				37	4.78	1.46		18th
23	Chris Paddack	MIN v SFG				32	5.57	1.48	6%	13th
24	Randy Vásquez	SDP at COL				32	3.90	1.67	-7%	28th	COL is so bad you might feel compelling to run him, but you can’t get mad if he gets trounced because you’re still running a -7 K-BB%, regardless of the matchup quality
25	Bryce Elder	ATL at PIT				32	5.06	1.38	7%	29th
26	Kyle Hendricks	LAA v BAL				30	5.28	1.17	3%	7th
27	Bailey Falter	PIT v ATL				37	5.06	1.21	11%	23rd
28	Patrick Corbin	TEX at DET				24	3.28	1.50	8%	5th
29	Bryse Wilson	CHW v MIA				22	5.56	1.90	4%	22nd
30	Antonio Senzatela	COL v SDP				34	5.50	1.86	6%	16th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

10 Comments

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CarMars FavoriteMember since 2018

22 days ago

Stop the Sugano hate. He’s beautiful

pfitz23Member since 2025

21 days ago

Reply to CarMars Favorite

Agreed that the ERA won’t stay this good with an 8% k-bb, but it won’t stay there. He’s more like a 12% guy which could allow him to keep the ERA under 4 as long as he keeps pitching intelligently. Pretty easy start in tonight’s matchup, Angels are brutal.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to pfitz23

12% stinks too!!

Reply to Paul Sporer

He’s atypical but sometimes it works.

12% is bad in a vacuum, I agree, but tolerable when it comes with a 3:1 or 4:1 k:bb. Sugano is capable of doing that and having decent ratios as a result. Not a ton of upside though, I agree

20 days ago

CYgano Gang is having a good morning today