Starting Pitcher Chart – May 25th

May 25, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Thursday, May 25th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Logan Gilbert	SEA		OAK	x	x	x	52	3.81	1.00	26%	27th	He’s putting batters away brilliantly; his 23% PutAway rate (Ks/2-strike pitches) is 13th in the lg, up 5 pts from last yr when he ranked 66th (min. 500 BF)
2	Zach Eflin	TBR		TOR	x	x	x	47	3.45	1.00	26%	10th	Unmoved by the 5.21 ERA in his L3 bc it comes with a 26% K-BB and 1.05 WHIP
3	Lucas Giolito	CHW	at	DET	x	x	x	59.2	3.62	1.12	20%	23rd	He looks like himself again as a strong mid-rotation arm in all formats
4	Aaron Nola	PHI	at	ATL	x	x	x	62.2	4.31	1.07	16%	12th	The WHIP is still helping you so while the ERA is less than ideal, he is still an easy Top 40-50 SP making him an easy start
5	JP Sears	OAK	at	SEA		x	x	48.2	4.99	1.15	20%	25th	An ugly 2.0 HR rate has his ERA at 4.99 despite solid 20% K and 12% SwStr rates; the nearly non-existent win probability makes hurts his streaming viability, though
6	Braxton Garrett	MIA	at	COL			x	43	4.60	1.35	19%	26th	It’s always risky to venture into Coors, but I’ve been comfortable enough to start all 3 MIA SPs here in deep lgs at the very least
7	Miles Mikolas	STL	at	CIN			x	54.2	4.77	1.48	12%	18th	Had a 10.05 ERA in his first 3 and is now toting a 2.90 ERA in his L7 basically putting him back where he belongs according to his skills (4.77 ERA, 4.59 SIERA)
8	Clarke Schmidt	NYY		BAL			x	45	6.00	1.62	18%	13th	The 3.82 SIERA is alluring but until he cuts into the 1.6 HR and .386 BABIP, he’s going to struggle to put together QS
9	Kyle Freeland	COL		MIA			x	53.1	3.88	1.24	12%	11th	He has 2 sub-3 IP outings this yr but also 6 QS as well as a 5 IP/0 ER gem
10	Blake Snell	SDP	at	WSN			x	45	5.40	1.56	10%	4th	WSN is 2nd in K% v. LH making this an even tougher start as he relies on Ks to soften the blow of his high ER games
11	Alek Manoah	TOR	at	TBR				50.2	5.15	1.74	3%	4th	Last start instills some confidence & it might’ve gone longer w/out his mgr’s blunder… does it instill enough to take this shot?
12	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	NYY				59	4.27	1.36	9%	16th	He’s gonna drop his gems pretty regularly but it’s a sharp downside w/those 17% K and 9% SwStr rates
13	Dylan Dodd	ATL		PHI				15.1	6.46	1.83	4%	30th	It hasn’t been all bad in his 3 MLB starts and this is a good matchup, but I’m still skeptical
14	Carlos Carrasco	NYM	at	CHC				18.2	8.68	1.55	1%	17th	SwStr rate has plummeted and BB rate has soared making him a really tough start anywhere right now
15	Kyle Hendricks	CHC		NYM				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	15th	Season debut!
16	Alex Faedo	DET		CHW				15.2	4.60	0.83	18%	29th	Has never been able to bring his MiLB swing-and-miss to the majors (17% in MiLB; 10% in 93 MLB IP)
17	Luke Weaver	CIN		STL				31.2	6.54	1.52	16%	3rd	Has 15 Ks in his L4 starts after 16 in the first 2
18	Jake Irvin	WSN		SDP				18	5.50	1.61	4%	24th	4% K and SwStr rates
19	Julio Teheran	MIL		SFG				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	14th	This is not confirmed and he’s been far too hittable at AAA to start him if he does get the nod
20	Bullpen Game	SFG	at	MIL				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	27th	Scott Alexander is penciled in to open this one

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX