Starting Pitcher Chart – May 24th

May 24, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Wednesday, May 24th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Joe Ryan	MIN		SFG	x	x	x	56	2.25	0.89	27%	14th	Has gone at least 6 IP in each of his 9 starts so far this year
2	Shane McClanahan	TBR		TOR	x	x	x	57	2.05	1.19	19%	16th	Had a fantastic bounce back from his lone dud this year
3	Zac Gallen	ARI	at	PHI	x	x	x	61	2.95	1.00	25%	7th	Looking to rebound from his worst start of the season… I’m definitely starting him everywhere
4	Bryce Miller	SEA		OAK	x	x	x	25.1	1.42	0.51	23%	27th	Has to be the best prospect call-up so far with those numbers (maybe Morel on the hitting side?)
5	James Paxton	BOS	at	LAA	x	x	x	11	2.45	1.09	25%	23rd	Looks great through 2, I’m trusting him pretty much everywhere
6	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	COL	x	x	x	57	5.05	1.23	16%	8th	I know it’s been tough, but I just don’t see a 5.00+ ERA pitcher here and I’m not sitting him anywhere; 1 of just 12 SPs w/3 gms of 9+ Ks
7	Marcus Stroman	CHC		NYM	x	x	x	56	3.05	1.14	13%	15th	He probably isn’t a true talent low-3.00s ERA but he’s still a pretty easy start in most situations
8	Michael Kopech	CHW	at	CLE	x	x	x	50.1	4.83	1.33	11%	30th	I’ll roll w/him in a great matchup after his best start of the season (8 IP/1 H/10 Ks)
9	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	at	MIN	x	x	x	55.1	3.09	0.99	16%	6th	I do worry about that 8% HR/FB rate regressing (13% career), hopefully it doesn’t happen all in one game
10	Tyler Wells	BAL	at	NYY		x	x	52	2.94	0.79	18%	16th	That 1.7 HR rate is looming with the WHIP certain to go up
11	Kodai Senga	NYM	at	CHC		x	x	43	3.77	1.44	16%	17th	He’s succeeding with the high WHIP as he’s been able to work around the BB, but it does cut into his shallow lg value
12	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	ATL		x	x	24	1.13	0.92	11%	12th	Back on his grind with an insane .172 BABIP (.218 career)
13	Bryce Elder	ATL		LAD		x	x	52.1	2.06	1.15	14%	9th	Tough matchup but I’m having a hard time sitting Elder in many spots… I can see 10-tm staffs being good enough to make him a team streamer
14	Cal Quantrill	CLE		CHW		x	x	51	4.06	1.31	6%	29th	A .195 BABIP in May has his WHIP back down and allowing him to succeed w/his pitch-to-contact philosophy
15	Nestor Cortes	NYY		BAL		x	x	48.1	5.21	1.28	17%	12th	Kind of a coinflip streamer right now so I understand starting him if you’re a believer, but he’s no longer must-start status
16	Trevor Williams	WSN		SDP			x	44.1	4.26	1.26	12%	24th	Decent enough streamer and SD isn’t really scary right now
17	Martín Pérez	TEX	at	PIT			x	49.1	4.01	1.52	11%	14th	HRs have returned with a vengeance (1.5) making him particularly volatile
18	Ranger Suárez	PHI		ARI				6	10.50	2.67	12%	18th	Still working into form so he’s a lower end streamer at best right now, I’m sitting him virtually everywhere
19	Johan Oviedo	PIT		TEX				48	4.69	1.54	9%	11th	Has some gems, but his blowups sting
20	Adrian Houser	MIL		HOU				14.2	3.07	1.50	13%	22nd	Kind of an NL version of Cal Quantrill
21	Brandon Bielak	HOU	at	MIL				18.2	2.89	1.77	13%	25th	That WHIP can’t sustain that ERA for much longer; the .407 BABIP should regress but his 1.4 HR rate limits his upside
22	Zack Greinke	KCR		DET				52.1	4.82	1.20	13%	23rd	He’s been fine lately but his bad starts have a way of washing out 3-4 good ones so there is heavy risk if you stream him
23	Matthew Boyd	DET	at	KCR				37.2	6.21	1.46	10%	5th	HRs are back with a 1.9 in his last 6 starts (6.91 ERA) & KC is raking vL lately
24	Tyler Anderson	LAA		BOS				42.2	5.27	1.62	3%	6th	Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 4 despite a meager 3% K-BB… this spot is too risky for me
25	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN		STL				11	2.45	0.73	22%	3rd	Looked good v. NYY but I’m not ready push forward with a start
26	Steven Matz	STL	at	CIN				46.1	5.05	1.62	12%	15th	Not taking his 1.4 HR rate to Cincy
27	Ryan Weathers	SDP	at	WSN				23.2	3.42	1.14	5%	4th	Can’t start that 5% K-BB against anyone
28	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	at	TBR				46.1	4.08	1.32	16%	2nd	Homers predictably came back to bite him making him a tough start in anything but the lightest of matchups
29	Karl Kauffmann	COL		MIA				4.1	8.31	2.08	10%	28th	No
30	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	at	SEA				46	6.85	1.85	5%	25th	Just not showing enough command of his arsenal from inning-to-inning

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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GreggMember since 2020

1 year ago

Paul, you owe Alex Cobb an apology.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Gregg

lolol, process v. results. in fairness, he wasn’t a no-X guy, I just wasn’t starting him everywhere. He was still a streamer consideration for me

Reply to Paul Sporer

I must defend my guy against this disrespect.

He has a 3.26 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA through 58 IP and is projected for a 3.5 ERA by all systems except THE BAT. That’s not a guy that should only be started in 15+ team leagues against a middling MIN offense.