Starting Pitcher Chart – May 22nd

May 22, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a very risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Monday, May 22nd Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Luis Castillo	SEA		OAK	R	x	x	x	BOS made him look human w/5 ER and 3 HR, this is a great chance to erase that damage in one fell swoop
2	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	MIL	R	x	x	x	Absolutely cruising right now, having allowed more than 3 ER just once this yr
3	Bailey Ober	MIN		SFG	R	x	x	x	Skills have been there throughout his MLB career, now suppressing HRs (0.6) makes him a legit stud
4	Zack Wheeler	PHI		ARI	R	x	x	x	Hasn’t lived up to expectations, but I can’t envision sitting him anywhere
5	Corbin Burnes	MIL		HOU	R	x	x	x	Essentially in that Zack Wheeler camp of studs that aren’t doing all we had hoped and yet no chance they’re sitting in any format
6	Chris Bassitt	TOR	at	TBR	R	x	x	x	Tough matchup isn’t deterring me from the start, especially in a weekly lg where I have to commit to this for the 2-step (at MIN this wknd)
7	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	PIT averaging just 2.8 runs/gm in 17 May games after a 5.4 mark in April… Dunning’s ratios will regress, but not necessarily in this start
8	Brady Singer	KCR		DET	R		x	x	Better his last 2x out w/just 3 ER in 12 IP (2 UER, too) though the 7 Ks and 4 BB temper the excitement… matchup makes him a worthy streamer
9	Michael Lorenzen	DET	at	KCR	R		x	x	Rolling in May w/3 straight gems (0.90 ERA & WHIP in 20 IP) despite a meager 9% K-BB… at least he had 7 Ks last time out
10	Jordan Montgomery	STL	at	CIN	L		x	x	A pair of duds accounting for more than half his season earned runs (13 of 24), pretty easy start w/the 2-step (at CLE this wknd)
11	Brandon Williamson	CIN		STL	L		x	x	Nice outing in Coors for his MLB debut but some brutal AAA work this yr & last keep my expectations in check… STL/at CHC isn’t a bad 2-step for deeper lgs
12	Charlie Morton	ATL		LAD	R		x	x	WHIP says that ERA will head upward soon and that could begin w/a LAD, PHI 2-step, but that doesn’t mean I’m sitting him everywhere
13	Gavin Stone	LAD	at	ATL	R				His rough MLB debut doesn’t play a role in me sitting here as I have plenty of longer term hope for him, but at ATL/at TBR is a brutal 2-step
14	Tanner Houck	BOS	at	LAA	R				Just a 60% LOB rate for the yr (incl. 48% in his L4) is really hurting him especially since his 13% K-BB doesn’t give much margin for error
15	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT		TEX	R				Can’t take this gamble… still see some summer upside in this arm
16	Josh Fleming	TBR		TOR	L				Had a sharp 5-IP start last time out, but still just 2 Ks and 2 BB… not enough skill support to take on this killer 2-step (TOR, LAD)
17	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	COL	R				That command (or lack thereof) in Coors is a recipe for disaster despite the 6 shutout IP there to open his 2022 season
18	Jaime Barría	LAA		BOS	R				I’ve always had a soft spot for him & he’s been great in the pen this yr, but no chance we’re taking the shot v. BOS
19	Tommy Henry	ARI	at	PHI	L				Not doing enough to feel confident trying to take advantage of this matchup
20	Hunter Gaddis	CLE		CHW	R				Far too hittable to trust in any format, even w/this great matchup
21	Jesse Scholtens	CHW	at	CLE	R				29-yr old non-prospect put up a 20% K-BB at AAA, but w/a 2.1 HR rate & HRs have been a consistent issue since 2018
22	Chase Anderson	COL		MIA	R				Gotta be tough going from TBR to COL
23	Kyle Muller	OAK	at	SEA	L				There is no matchup that makes him enticing
24	Bullpen Game	SFG	at	MIN	R				John Brebbia is going to start this pen game for SF

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Monday, May 22nd Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Luis Castillo	SEA		OAK	R	x	x	x	51.2	3.31	1.05	23%	0.296	23rd
2	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	MIL	R	x	x	x	52.2	3.25	0.97	23%	0.297	21st
3	Bailey Ober	MIN		SFG	R	x	x	x	30.1	1.78	0.96	18%	0.316	14th
4	Zack Wheeler	PHI		ARI	R	x	x	x	51	4.06	1.20	22%	0.353	2nd
5	Corbin Burnes	MIL		HOU	R	x	x	x	51.2	3.48	1.16	13%	0.294	25th
6	Chris Bassitt	TOR	at	TBR	R	x	x	x	56	3.05	1.02	11%	0.344	3rd
7	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	37.1	1.69	0.88	11%	0.296	24th
8	Brady Singer	KCR		DET	R		x	x	45.2	7.09	1.53	12%	0.284	29th
9	Michael Lorenzen	DET	at	KCR	R		x	x	34	3.44	1.21	12%	0.299	22nd
10	Jordan Montgomery	STL	at	CIN	L		x	x	51.1	4.21	1.34	16%	0.322	18th
11	Brandon Williamson	CIN		STL	L		x	x	5.2	1.59	0.71	20%	0.307	21st
12	Charlie Morton	ATL		LAD	R		x	x	47.1	2.85	1.37	15%	0.332	7th
13	Gavin Stone	LAD	at	ATL	R				4	9.00	2.50	-4%	0.313	15th
14	Tanner Houck	BOS	at	LAA	R				42.2	5.48	1.31	13%	0.345	4th
15	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT		TEX	R				8	5.63	2.38	-2%	0.330	8th
16	Josh Fleming	TBR		TOR	L				36.2	3.68	1.36	2%	0.355	6th
17	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	COL	R				40.1	5.13	1.59	14%	0.324	10th
18	Jaime Barría	LAA		BOS	R				23	1.96	0.96	17%	0.357	1st
19	Tommy Henry	ARI	at	PHI	L				27	5.00	1.48	1%	0.275	29th
20	Hunter Gaddis	CLE		CHW	R				19.2	6.86	1.42	8%	0.292	26th
21	Jesse Scholtens	CHW	at	CLE	R				3	3.00	2.00	13%	0.281	30th
22	Chase Anderson	COL		MIA	R				10	0.00	0.50	9%	0.285	28th
23	Kyle Muller	OAK	at	SEA	L				42	7.71	1.95	4%	0.301	25th
24	Bullpen Game	SFG	at	MIN	R				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.336	5th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Trevor May Care Attitude

1 year ago

I agree with you that, given his recent run of results, most owners will probably be starting Bassitt in St. Pete, but I was looking under his hood yesterday and it’s a real good news/bad news situation. The good news is that he has a consistent history of outperforming his FIP by nearly half a run. The bad news is that his FIP is currently 4.53, his xFIP is 4.70, and his tERA is 4.59.

MoeliciousMember since 2018

Reply to Trevor May Care Attitude

Bassitt doesn’t appear to be doing anything to justify the shiny ERA/WHIP except limiting hard contact (.197 BABIP) and I don’t know if that is a skill or luck. Curious to see what the peripherals look like if you remove the opening 9 ER game when it appears that he wasn’t 100% ready to begin the season.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Totally get that as the early season BB were a big issue making things a bit uncertain even as his numbers were leveling off from his ugly first outing. The last 2 outings have been particularly sharp and give me enough confidence to start him this week

WARonEverything

Reply to Paul Sporer

Has anyone ever looked at SP who throw a lot of effective (plus) different pitch types have a better chance of better FIP vs ERA numbers? I know this would be tough to quantify, but Bassitt kind of reminds me of a guy like Ryu where he might not have huge K numbers year over year and often had FIP fairly higher than ERA, but when you watch him pitch it kind of makes sense that hitters have a tough time with him. so many pitches to chose from get them guessing and lead to not great contact, but more contact than a big K guy because of lack of overpowering stuff.

airforce21one

By the end of the year I think Bassitt will be exactly who we thought he would be.