Starting Pitcher Chart – May 1st, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
Got a super late start on the board tonight so please drop questions or comments down below and I’ll get to them throughout Wednesday morning or you can join my chat around 1pm ET where I’ll be answering questions for an hour or so!
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | BAL v NYY | x | x | x | 35 | 2.55 | 0.93 | 20% | 4th |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | PHI at LAA | x | x | x | 37 | 1.93 | 0.88 | 24% | 17th |
| 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD at ARI | x | x | x | 28 | 3.54 | 1.07 | 27% | 26th |
| 4 | Kutter Crawford | BOS v SFG | x | x | x | 33 | 1.35 | 1.11 | 17% | 13th |
| 5 | Chris Sale | ATL at SEA | x | x | x | 31 | 3.69 | 0.92 | 21% | 25th |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | CHC at NYM | x | x | x | 27 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 23% | 10th |
| 7 | Bailey Ober | MIN at CHW | x | x | x | 25 | 4.21 | 1.05 | 18% | 30th |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | TBR at MIL | x | x | x | 35 | 4.08 | 1.19 | 18% | 2nd |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | ARI v LAD | x | x | x | 32 | 3.38 | 1.22 | 20% | 1st |
| 10 | Justin Verlander | HOU v CLE | x | x | x | 10 | 1.74 | 1.06 | 17% | 20th |
| 11 | Joe Musgrove | SDP v CIN | x | x | x | 35 | 6.94 | 1.66 | 9% | 22nd |
| 12 | Chris Bassitt | TOR v KCR | x | x | x | 30 | 5.64 | 1.85 | 9% | 12th |
| 13 | José Buttó | NYM v CHC | x | x | x | 22 | 2.86 | 1.09 | 14% | 18th |
| 14 | Luis Gil | NYY at BAL | x | x | 24 | 4.01 | 1.34 | 15% | 6th | |
| 15 | Quinn Priester | PIT at OAK | x | x | 10 | 3.48 | 1.16 | 14% | 29th | |
| 16 | Trevor Williams | WSN at TEX | x | 26 | 2.70 | 1.05 | 11% | 10th | ||
| 17 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA v PHI | x | 27 | 6.33 | 1.78 | 11% | 8th | ||
| 18 | Kenta Maeda | DET v STL | x | 22 | 5.96 | 1.37 | 10% | 25th | ||
| 19 | Seth Lugo | KCR at TOR | x | 38 | 1.66 | 1.11 | 9% | 19th | ||
| 20 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN at SDP | x | 28 | 4.40 | 1.29 | 16% | 5th | ||
| 21 | Miles Mikolas | STL at DET | x | 32 | 5.91 | 1.47 | 13% | 24th | ||
| 22 | Roddery Muñoz | MIA v COL | x | 5 | 3.60 | 0.60 | 33% | 16th | ||
| 23 | Triston McKenzie | CLE at HOU | x | 22 | 4.91 | 1.68 | 1% | 7th | ||
| 24 | Andrew Heaney | TEX v WSN | x | 23 | 6.26 | 1.26 | 13% | 20th | ||
| 25 | Emerson Hancock | SEA v ATL | 26 | 5.06 | 1.12 | 13% | 3rd | |||
| 26 | Colin Rea | MIL v TBR | 27 | 3.25 | 1.27 | 8% | 21st | |||
| 27 | Ross Stripling | OAK v PIT | 34 | 4.98 | 1.49 | 11% | 27th | |||
| 28 | Dakota Hudson | COL at MIA | 24 | 6.57 | 1.78 | 1% | 28th | |||
| 29 | Chris Flexen 플렉센 | CHW v MIN | 24 | 5.11 | 1.34 | 3% | 14th | |||
| 30 | Daulton Jefferies | SFG at BOS | 2 | 22.50 | 4.50 | 6% | 8th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Paul, what’s your evaluation of Hunter Brown’s start yesterday? 7 k’s on 22 batters faced is the bright spot and not much else. Should I hold?
It’s kind of a C+ outing for me. Still 6 ER and 2 HR. I’m OK holding, but he’s FAR from a must-start. Such a tough guy to figure so far this year. I still believe in the overall talent profile, but I understand that patience is wearing thin for shallow leaguers
Musgrove can’t ruin my Wednesday – he’s on my bench finally!
I definitely don’t blame you. I’m not cutting but I’m open to the benching for sure. He still has a 4.68 SIERA which obviously isn’t great, either, but it shows that his skills are better than the ugly 6.94 ERA we’ve seen. He’s off but he seems fixably off. We’ve seen enough good to hold through this trouble, IMO
Im surprised at the faith in Bassitt….can anyone expound? I love the pitcher in general…hate his YTD and dont love the opponent/park
It’s a bit of blind faith, tbh. He basically ran this exact playbook last yr w/6 rough starts and an uncharacteristic 12% BB rate — same thing he’s done this year. Just bc he did it last yr doesn’t mean he will correct things again this year, buuuttt I’m willing to stick around a bit longer w/him. He was a relatively high investment and I’m not ready to quit off a month. I understand benching, but I’m not cutting in any format right now. In Bassitt I Believe… for now.
TY! LOVE IT!!
I apologize. I checked on Bassitt in the 6th….when he allowed the runs…lol
LOLOLOL that’s OK. We’ll take a baseline QS with just 1 BB given how things had been going lately
Would you throw Butto vs CHC or Montgomery vs LAD? I lean to the former?
Butto has the easier matchup, but he’s also the less stable option. Butto has the higher point ceiling. I’d take him, but it’s not a fun pick either way.
Monty for me. Trust the stud (yes, Monty’s a stud to me) over the matchup personally
Thanks! Maybe I will roll the dice and start both!
Yeah, Monty’s great. I’m just not sold that teams will keep letting him get away with not striking anyone out, and signings from partway through the season have a history of not working out great iirc.
Granted, Butto also has flags everywhere. He’s not going to maintain that strand rate and BABIP forever, plus a typically high walk rate. Not a pick I’d be happy about making, but his strikeout potential gives him a high ceiling with a reasonable floor.
I wouldn’t be happy about picking between either of them. Enough red flags for… well, a May Day parade, funnily enough.
Thank you!
Wow, that seems really pessimistic on Seth Lugo. Lifetime, he has a 3.39 ERA while going 44-32 playing with mediocre offenses. This season, in 5 starts not against the Orioles he has gone at least 6 innings each with a total … TOTAL … of 3 runs given up. Even that Baltimore start was merely mediocre and not a disaster — 5.1 innings, 4 runs. He faces Toronto today, 22nd in team OPS on the season. I cannot imagine slotting him behind Musgrove’s 6.94 ERA/1.66 WHIP or Bassitt’s 5.64/1.85.
OK, he is not a big K guy, but he had 9 in 7 innings his last start in dominating the Tigers in Detroit.
Well, I probably just jinxed him by posting this, but I guess we’ll see.
I’m gonna go ahead and take the W on this Lugo call … both figuratively and literally.
Lugo today: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 8K, W (now 5-1 on the season).
Bassitt actually pitched well against him, carrying a no-hitter into the 6th, but ran out of gas and gave up 3 ER in the 6th to take the L. Musgrove was pretty good against the Reds too, but ended up with a no-decision after giving up 2 ER through 6 innings of work … so not as good as Lugo.
I wouldn’t have played him over Bassitt & Musgrove, but he should’ve at least been 2-x because I’m definitely mentally overrating TOR. I’m glad you posted, though. I know we always say the jinx thing for fun, but I love when y’all share your takes on guys
It’s all good, we’re all just having fun playing fantasy baseball … if we all agreed on everyone’s value all the time, it would take all the fun out of it!
I actually did not start Lugo in my weekly roto league, instead starting Kutter Crawford. Now I have to sweat Kutter’s start today knowing I could have had a great start and a W from Lugo. That’s fantasy baseball, heh.
You did NOT jinx him. Lugo is looking good thus far