Starting Pitcher Chart – May 12th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
2-start board update coming Monday morning!
—
Afternoon update: sorry for the extreme delay on the 2-start board. Charlotte is taking prednisone for a little hip/back issue and the side effects are kickin’ her butt a bit, including needing to go out every 60-90 minutes to do her business so I was up most of the night and then crashed for a bit this morning when my gf woke up and could take care of Char.
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
—
Starter Notes May 12, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael King | SDP v LAA | x | x | x | 44 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 19% | 23rd | Still prefer Skenes rest of season, but it’s a much better matchup for King |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT at NYM | x | x | x | 48 | 2.77 | 0.95 | 18% | 11th | You’d like better than his 25% K rate, but he’s still been amazing |
| 3 | Tyler Mahle | TEX v COL | x | x | x | 42 | 1.48 | 0.98 | 10% | 28th | 2-start this wk w/a start v. HOU on the wknd followed by a trip to CHW next wk |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at CLE | x | x | x | 45 | 2.18 | 1.04 | 18% | 19th | Has allowed >2 ER just 1x (3 at SFG) elevating him to SP15 on the Player Rater |
| 5 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI v STL | x | x | x | 37 | 2.89 | 1.23 | 19% | 9th | Unfazed by the minor lg dimensins at TBR w/6 shutout IP of 1-hit ball |
| 6 | Michael Wacha | KCR at HOU | x | x | x | 45 | 2.98 | 1.15 | 11% | 24th | Dealing since he allowed 4 v. BAL back in early-Apr: 2.52 ERA/1.05 WHIP in 6 starts |
| 7 | Merrill Kelly | ARI at SFG | x | x | x | 44 | 4.09 | 1.05 | 12% | 13th | That 9 ER in the Bronx will inflate his home/road ERA all yr; just 3 ER in 16.7 road IP across 3 starts since |
| 8 | Ryan Gusto | HOU v KCR | x | x | x | 27 | 2.93 | 1.27 | 18% | 25th | Rejoining the rotation w/Wesneski’s injury and now lines up for a spicy 2-step |
| 9 | Colin Rea | CHC v MIA | x | x | x | 29 | 2.43 | 1.21 | 15% | 22nd | Limiting HRs has taken him from his usual #4-5 SP realm to more of a #2-3 and this v. MIA and v. CHW 2-step is worth looking at everywhere… even if the #s regress a bit, W potential is still very high |
| 10 | Matthew Liberatore | STL at PHI | x | x | x | 41 | 3.07 | 0.95 | 20% | 10th | PHI isn’t easy, but I’m starting him everywhere right now |
| 11 | David Peterson | NYM v PIT | x | x | x | 38 | 3.52 | 1.38 | 14% | 28th | A pair of errors salvaged his ERA at ARI (4 R/2 ER) as he remains firmly on the tightrope w/this ERA/WHIP combo |
| 12 | Grant Holmes | ATL v WSN | x | x | 39 | 4.58 | 1.25 | 12% | 18th | Litmus test 2-step wk for Holmes w/at BOS looming on the wknd; didn’t see a 12% BB coming but w/just 3 in his L2, maybe he’s improving? Schedule stays intense after this wk: SDP, at PHI, ARI | |
| 13 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY at SEA | x | x | 20 | 4.79 | 1.40 | 10% | 3rd | 1st real gem of the yr last time out v. SDP; devastating 2-step w/4th and 5th ranked tms in wOBA vR | |
| 14 | Jake Irvin | WSN at ATL | x | 48 | 3.94 | 1.15 | 10% | 14th | Curvin’ Jake Irvin has a 3.09 ERA/0.97 WHIP over his L5 (32 IP) and that’s inflated by an ugly 3-run 1st inn. at PHI (5 IP/3 ER after that); 10% K-BB & 1.4 HR9 do undercut the viability of the run w/a .196 BABIP doing most of the work | ||
| 15 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA at SDP | x | 42 | 3.83 | 1.46 | 10% | 4th | Good in 4 of his L5, but the 5th was 2 IP/4 ER/4 BB/0 K at MIN and now you’re staring down the barrel of an at SDP/at LAD 2-step… goooood luck! | ||
| 16 | Ben Lively | CLE v MIL | x | 41 | 3.46 | 1.20 | 9% | 20th | Now featuring colored smoke and even more mirrors! | ||
| 17 | Tanner Houck | BOS at DET | x | 41 | 6.10 | 1.50 | 10% | 10th | Those 11 ER at TBR are obscuring a solid 3.57 ERA over his L4 w/a 1.17 WHIP and 17% K-BB in 22.7 IP; not diving in head-first, but he’s at least back on the table for a 2-step wk (v. ATL this wknd) | ||
| 18 | Justin Verlander | SFG v ARI | 42 | 4.50 | 1.31 | 11% | 2nd | It’s really gotta be aces-only v. ARI and it’s not like JV is fully earning the 2.70 ERA over his L4 | |||
| 19 | Emerson Hancock | SEA v NYY | 23 | 5.70 | 1.56 | 10% | 4th | Pitching pretty well since DET trounced him for 6 ER in just 2/3rds an IP, but w/at SDP looming on the wknd, this is remarkably tough 2-step… be careful | |||
| 20 | Jackson Jobe | DET v BOS | 27 | 4.88 | 1.48 | 4% | 8th | Getting cooked in Coors isn’t entirely disqualifying even w/how bad COL’s been, buuuuttt he was walking a tightrope well before this start rending him cuttable in many formats | |||
| 21 | Chase Dollander | COL at TEX | 28 | 7.71 | 1.64 | 9% | 26th | Solid matchup and out of Coors, buuuttt I’m just not sure there’s enough upside | |||
| 22 | Cal Quantrill | MIA at CHC | 31 | 7.11 | 1.67 | 8% | 5th | Yes, offff course he drops a 5 IP/1 ER/6 K gm on LAD, lol… I love baseball!! |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
—
2-START CHART
2-Start Chart for the Week of May 12th
| RANK | PITCHER | TYPE | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael King | 1 | LAA/SEA | 44.2 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 19% | 104 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 1 | at NYM/at PHI | 48.2 | 2.77 | 0.95 | 18% | 105 |
| 3 | Max Fried | 1 | at SEA/NYM | 51.2 | 1.05 | 0.91 | 17% | 102 |
| 4 | Cristopher Sánchez | 1 | STL/PIT | 37.1 | 2.89 | 1.23 | 19% | 98 |
| 5 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 2 | WAS/at BOS | 47.1 | 3.61 | 1.12 | 18% | 108 |
| 6 | Tyler Mahle | 2 | COL/HOU | 42.2 | 1.48 | 0.98 | 10% | 113 |
| 7 | Matthew Liberatore | 2 | at PHI/at KCR | 41 | 3.07 | 0.95 | 20% | 108 |
| 8 | Ryan Gusto | 3 | KCR/at TEX | 27.2 | 2.93 | 1.27 | 18% | 97 |
| 9 | Shane Baz | 3 | at TOR/at MIA | 38.1 | 4.93 | 1.33 | 16% | 100 |
| 10 | Colin Rea | 3 | MIA/CWS | 29.2 | 2.43 | 1.21 | 15% | 100 |
| 11 | Michael Wacha | 3 | at HOU/STL | 45.1 | 2.98 | 1.15 | 11% | 101 |
| 12 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | 3 | at SFG/COL | 44 | 4.09 | 1.05 | 12% | 107 |
| 13 | Clarke Schmidt | 3 | at SEA/NYM | 20.2 | 4.79 | 1.40 | 10% | 100 |
| 14 | David Peterson | 3 | PIT/at NYY | 38.1 | 3.52 | 1.38 | 14% | 103 |
| 15 | José Berríos | 3 | TBR/DET | 46.2 | 3.86 | 1.41 | 12% | 95 |
| 16 | Andrew Abbott | 4 | CHW/CLE | 24 | 2.25 | 1.17 | 19% | 93 |
| 17 | Grant Holmes | 4 | WAS/at BOS | 39.1 | 4.58 | 1.25 | 12% | 100 |
| 18 | Michael Soroka | 4 | at ATL/at BAL | 10 | 7.20 | 1.30 | 19% | 103 |
| 19 | Justin Verlander | 4 | ARI/ATH | 42 | 4.50 | 1.31 | 11% | 96 |
| 20 | Tanner Houck | 4 | at DET/ATL | 41.1 | 6.10 | 1.50 | 10% | 105 |
| 21 | Jake Irvin | 4 | at ATL/at BAL | 48 | 3.94 | 1.15 | 10% | 105 |
| 22 | Emerson Hancock | 4 | NYY/at SDP | 23.2 | 5.70 | 1.56 | 10% | 102 |
| 23 | Yusei Kikuchi | 4 | at SDP/at LAD | 42.1 | 3.83 | 1.46 | 10% | 107 |
| 24 | Jackson Jobe | 4 | BOS/at TOR | 27.2 | 4.88 | 1.48 | 4% | 96 |
| 25 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | 5 | MIL/at CIN | 41.2 | 3.46 | 1.20 | 9% | 105 |
| 26 | Cade Povich | 5 | MIN/WAS | 35.2 | 5.55 | 1.54 | 11% | 105 |
| 27 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 5 | at BAL/at MIL | 33.2 | 4.01 | 1.43 | 13% | 99 |
| 28 | Jack Leiter | 5 | COL/HOU | 23 | 5.09 | 1.30 | 7% | 89 |
| 29 | Jeffrey Springs | 5 | at LAD/at SFG | 39.1 | 4.81 | 1.42 | 7% | 96 |
| 30 | Chase Dollander | 6 | at TEX/at ARI | 28 | 7.71 | 1.64 | 9% | 90 |
| 31 | Jonathan Cannon | 6 | at CIN/at CHC | 44 | 4.09 | 1.45 | 8% | 102 |
| 32 | Cal Quantrill | 6 | at CHC/TBR | 31.2 | 7.11 | 1.67 | 8% | 100 |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
Have a Oc that is sitting at 2 overall with complete lack of closers (Munoz). I now have 4 speculative guys, Bednar, Martin, Romano, Tinoco. If I had to start 2 of the last 4, how would you rank them?
Why am I paying money for your advice? Based on it, I picked up Gusto, XXX start everywhere today, and he just blew up my ratios for the week. A few days ago, Fedde, don’t start anywhere, pitched a complete game shutout for my opponent.
Seriously, do you ever evaluate these rankings afterwards to see how much they tracked reality? I know there a lot of guesswork and luck, but without such tests these are pretty meaningless.
I tried to get gusto everywhere and only got him in 2 spots. Bad games happen, Gusto was someone everyone would have started.
Picking out 2 big misses when I’m ranking every game M-F isn’t really enough to make a judgment one way or another, is it? Even misses that big. This is a volume game, there’s no universe where I or anyone else will be close to 100%. I’m not above critique on my opinions of pitchers if you think I’ve misranked someone. I’m far from infallible and I love chatting w/y’all in the comments, but this feels more like you’re cherry-picking 2 recent instances where things went wrong for you specifically to make a sweeping judgment on the piece at large.
Actually, after some admitted venting for a cursed 2025 season, for which I apologize, I’m wondering if somebody looks after the fact, comparing something like otteneu points vs the rankings, to evaluate. I’m pretty sure you do a good job, but a stat like that would help your sales pitch! And you could study the misses and perhaps learn what went wrong – overvaluing park factors, home vs. away, whatever.
Dear Paul Sporer,
First, I’m sorry for the harsh tone of the previous note. It’s been a bad week or so for my teams.
But, to make lemonade out of lemons, here is a rough example of what I was talking about. It compares the points earned (roughly ESPN standard cause that was easiest for me to do quickly) vs. your rankings and tiers for May 12. Since this is fantasy baseball, one could develop all kinds of other statistics. 🙂
There seems to be a slight correlation between your ratings and the results. One day is obviously a very small sample size, so, over weeks or months, one would expect this correlation to become stronger.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JTLIDbSHh8M3OdUlmDF1uUm8Ovh00uSTvu13H_4O52Y/edit?usp=sharing
Sincerely,
Morgan Conrad