Starting Pitcher Chart – March 28th, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (well, no notes for this first weekend since we’re mostly just going off the preseason analysis, but I will answer as many comments as I can). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
This will come out the night before most days. I had a late night draft last night and just couldn’t stay up to finish it afterwards. But it’s Opening Day so most of the decisions are pretty easy!
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK Last Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | DET at CHW | x | x | x | 80 | 2.80 | 0.90 | 28% | 27th |
| 2 | Pablo López | MIN at KCR | x | x | x | 194 | 3.66 | 1.15 | 23% | 26th |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD v STL | x | x | x | 120 | 3.53 | 1.08 | 26% | 9th |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | SEA v BOS | x | x | x | 197 | 3.34 | 1.10 | 20% | 8th |
| 5 | Shane Bieber | CLE at OAK | x | x | x | 128 | 3.80 | 1.23 | 14% | 29th |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | KCR v MIN | x | x | x | 96 | 3.47 | 1.16 | 18% | 19th |
| 7 | Zach Eflin | TBR v TOR | x | x | x | 177 | 3.50 | 1.02 | 23% | 11th |
| 8 | Corbin Burnes | BAL v LAA | x | x | x | 193 | 3.39 | 1.07 | 17% | 15th |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | HOU v NYY | x | x | x | 198 | 3.45 | 1.13 | 18% | 9th |
| 10 | Logan Webb | SFG at SDP | x | x | x | 216 | 3.25 | 1.07 | 19% | 18th |
| 11 | Zac Gallen | ARI v COL | x | x | x | 210 | 3.47 | 1.12 | 20% | 19th |
| 12 | Jesús Luzardo | MIA v PIT | x | x | x | 178 | 3.58 | 1.21 | 21% | 24th |
| 13 | Justin Steele | CHC at TEX | x | x | x | 173 | 3.06 | 1.17 | 20% | 4th |
| 14 | Yu Darvish | SDP v SFG | x | x | x | 136 | 4.56 | 1.30 | 17% | 23rd |
| 15 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX v CHC | x | x | x | 144 | 3.63 | 1.14 | 15% | 12th |
| 16 | Mitch Keller | PIT at MIA | x | x | x | 194 | 4.21 | 1.25 | 19% | 21st |
| 17 | José Berríos | TOR at TBR | x | x | x | 189 | 3.65 | 1.19 | 17% | 4th |
| 18 | Brayan Bello | BOS at SEA | x | x | x | 157 | 4.24 | 1.34 | 13% | 14th |
| 19 | Nestor Cortes | NYY at HOU | x | 63 | 4.97 | 1.25 | 18% | 3rd | ||
| 20 | Garrett Crochet | CHW v DET | x | 12 | 3.55 | 1.97 | -2% | 22nd | ||
| 21 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA at BAL | x | 144 | 4.11 | 1.51 | 8% | 10th | ||
| 22 | Miles Mikolas | STL at LAD | x | 201 | 4.78 | 1.32 | 11% | 2nd | ||
| 23 | Alex Wood | OAK v CLE | x | 97 | 4.33 | 1.43 | 7% | 30th | ||
| 24 | Frankie Montas | CIN v WSN | x | 1 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 0% | 25th | ||
| 25 | Josiah Gray | WSN at CIN | 159 | 3.91 | 1.46 | 9% | 10th | |||
| 26 | Kyle Freeland | COL at ARI | 155 | 5.03 | 1.47 | 8% | 21st | |||
| 27 | Spencer Strider | ATL at PHI | P | P | D | 186 | 3.86 | 1.09 | 29% | 6th |
| 28 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at NYM | P | P | D | 165 | 3.86 | 1.12 | 23% | 16th |
| 29 | Zack Wheeler | PHI v ATL | P | P | D | 192 | 3.61 | 1.08 | 22% | 1st |
| 30 | Jose Quintana | NYM v MIL | P | P | D | 75 | 3.57 | 1.31 | 11% | 18th |
First day of the season and the date is already wrong (should be Mar 28 not 29)! This is why Rotographs needs a Spring Training. Clean it up, Paul!
(Just kidding!)
lol it’s bc my sheet automates to do the following day since it comes out day before and I forgot to fix like a dweeb!
Just a clarification note, Does “The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues ” mean that for points leagues (what I’m in) you would not look to stream the bottom of your list of SP’s with a 12 X or the opposite? 🙂
Yeah it’s the opposite — I’m more open to risks in H2H points formats
Any worries about Framber’s declining GB% over the last year and ST? As a LHP in that park he needs to keep the ball on the ground.
I play in FGPts where homers are brutal
What does the P and D mean for the bottom 4?
Postponed
Yeah, I just put PPD in because they were postponed
I have a theoretical question I haven’t really seen an analyst consider anywhere out there, but given the general reduction in starter IP across MLB, is it growing more and more likely that a given SP won’t make 5 IP his first start out? And should that change the way we consider a SP’s first start? Like there’s nothing wrong with 4 IP of 0 ER ball, but if you think there’s an 75% chance your guy won’t go 5, even 2 ER / 6 H + BB ruins what otherwise could’ve been a decent start/possible W if he lasts 5. I need one of y’all to do that expected value math for me.
I don’t think it is fair that the White Sox have matched Crochet up against sp1. My guy won’t get any wins.