Starting Pitcher Chart – June 2nd
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Friday, June 2nd Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at | HOU | x | x | x | 65 | 2.91 | 0.95 | 24% | 15th | If you have Ohtani and have to choose each week, have you been using him more as a hitter or pitcher? |
| 2 | Bailey Ober | MIN | CLE | x | x | x | 40.1 | 2.68 | 1.02 | 17% | 30th | Has only allowed more than 3 ER just once this year and he’s a big reason why their staff is 3rd in ERA and 1st in FIP | |
| 3 | Framber Valdez | HOU | LAA | x | x | x | 72 | 2.38 | 1.04 | 22% | 18th | Got moved to Friday… an all formats must-start | |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | SEA | at | TEX | x | x | x | 63.2 | 2.69 | 0.99 | 24% | 6th | Not an easy matchup but he doesn’t sit anywhere |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | NYY | x | x | x | 62.1 | 3.32 | 1.14 | 23% | 7th | 4 ER in each of his last 2 but still had 12 Ks in 8.7 IP | |
| 6 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | at | CIN | x | x | x | 63.2 | 3.68 | 1.19 | 13% | 13th | Bounced back nicely from the 5 ER dud w/1 of his best starts of the season (7 IP/1 ER/8 Ks) |
| 7 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | at | WSN | x | x | x | 65 | 3.60 | 1.14 | 22% | 20th | If he gets his 68% LOB rate back toward his 74% average, he still has sub-3.00 ERA skills |
| 8 | Logan Webb | SFG | BAL | x | x | x | 72 | 2.75 | 1.07 | 22% | 17th | Now has a 1.68 ERA in his L7, allowing 2 or fewer in all of ’em | |
| 9 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | ATL | x | x | x | 63.2 | 2.83 | 1.07 | 18% | 18th | Career-high 12% SwStr has him rolling and after 17 BB in his first 5 starts, he has just 8 in his last 6 (6% BB) | |
| 10 | Justin Verlander | NYM | TOR | x | x | x | 30 | 4.80 | 1.10 | 13% | 2nd | Certainly hasn’t been his elite self yet but I’m nowhere near sitting him right now | |
| 11 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | OAK | x | x | x | 52 | 5.02 | 1.50 | 13% | 29th | 3 straight w/3 or fewer ER and even had a combined 1 BB in the first 2, but then his old control woes returned with 4 BB in his latest… always super-risky | |
| 12 | Jon Gray | TEX | SEA | x | x | x | 57.2 | 2.81 | 1.11 | 12% | 14th | Dialed in right now with a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his L4 including 27 Ks in 27 IP | |
| 13 | Tyler Glasnow | TBR | at | BOS | x | x | x | 4.1 | 6.23 | 1.38 | 37% | 10th | Schedule gods didn’t bless him with LAD/BOS off the IL, but I’m fine starting him in most spots |
| 14 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | TBR | x | x | x | 21 | 5.14 | 1.19 | 15% | 7th | ER in his 4 starts: 5, 1, 5, 1… the upside keeps me interested | |
| 15 | Luis Severino | NYY | at | LAD | x | x | x | 11.1 | 1.59 | 0.79 | 14% | 5th | Has been solid in his 2 starts since coming off the IL, hopefully the 10% SwStr starts to tick up toward the 12% we saw last yr |
| 16 | Michael Wacha | SDP | CHC | x | x | 57.1 | 3.45 | 1.10 | 15% | 24th | He’s been cooking lately (1.46 ERA, 0.76 WHIP)… of course the .189 BABIP won’t maintain, but this is a good spot to see if he can stay hot | ||
| 17 | Charlie Morton | ATL | at | ARI | x | x | 57.2 | 3.59 | 1.47 | 15% | 4th | ARI is tough on righties and I don’t mind sitting Morton in his toughest matchups if you can afford it | |
| 18 | Josiah Gray | WSN | PHI | x | x | 61.2 | 2.77 | 1.41 | 8% | 21st | Has really quelled the HRs but in exchange the Ks are down & BB up so the 1.41 WHIP looms ominously | ||
| 19 | Dean Kremer | BAL | at | SFG | x | x | 59 | 4.58 | 1.44 | 12% | 23rd | Not a bad stream in 12s or deeper as he’s been throwing well of late w/a 2.45 ERA & 1.30 WHIP… the high WHIP underscores the risk but this a solid spot | |
| 20 | Jack Flaherty | STL | at | PIT | x | x | 58 | 4.81 | 1.53 | 10% | 28th | Has a pair of 7 IP gems in his L3 but it still only got his ERA down to 4.81; it’s risky but I’d take shot in the right situation | |
| 21 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | at | NYM | x | 66.1 | 3.80 | 1.15 | 11% | 12th | Survived 2 starts ago w/4 UER but velo ws down nearly 1.5 mph & he allowed 3 HR… next start saw another velo dip, 7 ER, and 2 HR; I’m inclined to sit this one out | ||
| 22 | Aaron Civale | CLE | at | MIN | x | 12.2 | 2.84 | 1.03 | 12% | 16th | First start back from the IL so it’s always an option to skip with non-studs | ||
| 23 | Mike Clevinger | CHW | DET | x | 47.1 | 4.56 | 1.46 | 9% | 19th | He’s pitching OK, but still living on a wire and while DET’s offense isn’t particularly scary, this is far from an automatic for me | |||
| 24 | Reese Olson | DET | at | CHW | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 27th | Interesting rookie making his debut has good stuff, but he’s very raw and I’d definitely wait and see with him | |||
| 25 | Roansy Contreras | PIT | STL | 52 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 6% | 8th | I’m keeping tabs on him as I think he’ll be startable at some pt in the summer, just not right now | ||||
| 26 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | MIL | 14.1 | 5.02 | 1.47 | 5% | 30th | Seeing that “30th” in the wOBA rank always makes me give someone a 2nd look and I just can’t get there w/his skills | ||||
| 27 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | at | SDP | 31.1 | 8.04 | 1.69 | 14% | 26th | He has been very hittable making him a nearly impossible start even with a league average 14% K-BB | |||
| 28 | Chase Anderson | COL | at | KCR | 20.2 | 1.31 | 0.97 | 6% | 11th | Don’t get fooled by the 91% LOB rate in 3 starts with COL | |||
| 29 | Jordan Lyles | KCR | COL | 61.2 | 7.30 | 1.38 | 8% | 1st | No thanks | ||||
| 30 | Hogan Harris | OAK | at | MIA | 5.1 | 10.13 | 1.50 | -4% | 9th | He’ll be in a follower role w/Fujinami opening |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
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If this was the WWE, I’d want Hogan in the follower role after a match has started to lay into whatever the manager was doing with the chair, help revive the unconscious ref, and just rev up the Hulkamaniacs in the audience. However, once you add “Harris” after Hogan, the python size (and motivation to include him in a lineup) just diminishes…
Hulk is leading the league in wREV+, sound strategy.
I’m curious why you use wOBA instead of wRC+ to rank opposing offenses. Seems like the adjusted stat would give you a more clear-eyed view of the strength of a team’s hitters relative to the league.
I find it to be the opposite. wRC+ can mislead you a good bit at the outlier ends, namely w/a team like COL. If they’re putting up wOBA, it doesn’t matter if it’s their park fueling it bc the earned runs against my pitcher still count the same. COL is 29th in wRC+ but 17th in wOBA.
Most teams have small moves (23 tms are in the +3 to -3 range of movement from wRC+ to wOBA) but 7 teams move at least 4 spots to the plus or minus depending on which you look at and I just feel like the wOBA gives me a better indication of what that team is likely do against my pitcher. COL/CIN move up the most using wOBA v. wRC+ while SEA/MIN/NYM/NYY move down the most.
That’s fair; I can see that perspective. Thanks for the response. I guess it is team dependent. It just feels so inexact when the ballpark can have such a large effect at either end of the spectrum. Boston, for instance, has a .366 wOBA at Fenway — currently tops in MLB for home teams — and a .299 wOBA on the road. I’m not sure if giving their wOBA rank (10th) really helps much.
(To be clear, this isn’t meant as a rebuttal. There’s obviously no way to capture all the possible variables in a single column.)
I totally hear that re: home/away, but wRC+ wouldn’t necessarily fix this, right? Rather a home/away split of wOBA ranks? Let me see if I can automate something for pulling the ranks home/away the way I have it right now.
Yeah, it definitely doesn’t fix it! Boston ranks 8th in overall wRC+, which wouldn’t capture the disparity, either. I didn’t even look at the differences in rankings between the two metrics before I asked, which would’ve been prudent. But I’m glad I did ask because I can see now how you’re thinking about it.
I’m intrigued by Whitlock’s upside too, but I’m surprised to see him getting the green light here. Starting him against the Rays even in shallow roto leagues? Feels bold.
Definitely risky and I did give him the full reco, but I’m OK sitting him where you’re not comfortable w/it as he’s likely not instrumental to anyone’s staff where you have to have him in
Just realized that with Quantrill going on the IL and both Civale and MacKenzie coming back, the Guardians will have an entirely home-grown rotation. Wonder how many other teams can claim that. My mind went to the Braves and they do (though that does include Morton who was drafted by the Braves and debuted with them but has spent most of his career elsewhere). The Reds are close with 4/5 home-grown.
EDIT*** – Houston is another one and they are even more extreme. Their entire current 6 man rotation is home-grown and they also have 3 home-grown guys on the IL that would be in the rotation if they were healthy (McCullers, Urquidy, Garcia)
Actually it’s remarkable just how home-grown the Astros are. Six of their 9 starting position players are home-grown and 2 of their 4 bench players as well. The bullpen is decidedly not but I’d bet that’s true of almost every team since relievers are kind of fungible. I have to confess, I don’t think I knew that Yordan was not a Houston pick/signing. He was originally a Dodgers signing and was traded to Houston in 2016 for Josh Fields. Imagine the Dodgers with Yordan. Scary