Starting Pitcher Chart – June 28th
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Wednesday, June 28th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Snell | SDP | at | PIT | x | x | x | 81 | 3.22 | 1.23 | 19% | 17th | 0.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 31% K-BB in L6 (5.40 ERA in first 9) |
| 2 | Logan Webb | SFG | at | TOR | x | x | x | 105.1 | 3.16 | 1.10 | 19% | 12th | NL’s version of Framber Valdez (well, a righty version), adding Ks to his already sharp ratios for a huge season! |
| 3 | Zach Eflin | TBR | at | ARI | x | x | x | 83.1 | 3.35 | 1.03 | 21% | 3rd | Hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any start this yr (3 starts of 4 ER) |
| 4 | Mitch Keller | PIT | SDP | x | x | x | 99 | 3.45 | 1.11 | 21% | 9th | Bounced back from the OAK dud w/a 2.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 19 IP | |
| 5 | Cristian Javier | HOU | at | STL | x | x | x | 83 | 3.25 | 1.12 | 16% | 13th | 8 BB and 5 K in his L3 w/just a 7% SwStr; still starting him, but keeping a close eye on this start |
| 6 | Dane Dunning | TEX | DET | x | x | x | 71.2 | 2.76 | 1.17 | 7% | 29th | 6% HR/FB is doing a lot of the heavy lifting w/his ERA, though DET is unlikely to start the regression for Dunning | |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | WSN | x | x | x | 86.1 | 4.07 | 1.02 | 21% | 20th | Just 3 ER allowed in his last 2 starts after the 6 ER at LAA on 6/11 | |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | PHI | at | CHC | x | x | x | 100.2 | 4.38 | 1.07 | 18% | 25th | Enjoy the WHIP and hope that your other SPs can counterbalance his modest ERA |
| 9 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | at | BOS | x | x | x | 76.2 | 3.64 | 1.15 | 24% | 3rd | MLB-best 31% K-BB since 11 ER demolition turning himself into a Must-Start across all formats |
| 10 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | at | LAA | x | x | x | 92.1 | 3.41 | 1.20 | 18% | 2nd | Hitting another level in June with a 1.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 22% K-BB in 24 IP… I generally avoid LAA but I’m standing with Gio |
| 11 | Miles Mikolas | STL | HOU | x | x | x | 93.2 | 4.23 | 1.36 | 12% | 17th | HOU w/out Alvarez is similar to NYY w/out Judge and turns an otherwise scary matchup isn’t an appealing one | |
| 12 | Wade Miley | MIL | at | NYM | x | x | x | 52.2 | 2.91 | 1.03 | 10% | 22nd | 11 scoreless since returning from IL & doesn’t get enough credit for his 3.44 ERA/1.29 WHIP in 515 IP since 2018 |
| 13 | Kodai Senga | NYM | MIL | x | x | x | 76.2 | 3.52 | 1.34 | 15% | 30th | The 0 BB gem v. PHI was just a one-off as he’s back to a 13% mark in his L4 (still a solid 3.74 ERA in that time) | |
| 14 | Logan Allen | CLE | at | KCR | x | x | x | 58.2 | 3.68 | 1.45 | 14% | 27th | A 13% BB in 4 June starts has been a major reason why his ERA in up nearly a run (+96 pts to 3.68) |
| 15 | Jaime Barría | LAA | CHW | x | x | 46.1 | 2.14 | 1.06 | 14% | 24th | Has posted a 2.31 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 20% K-BB since joining the rotation as a 5-and-dive | ||
| 16 | JP Sears | OAK | NYY | x | x | 83.1 | 4.10 | 1.03 | 19% | 25th | The ratios (2.93 ERA/0.91 WHIP) have been worth it over his L8 despite just 1 W (& 3 decisions total) | ||
| 17 | Domingo Germán | NYY | at | OAK | x | x | 72.1 | 5.10 | 1.18 | 14% | 23rd | Ran off 4 HR-free gms to open May (1.64 ERA) & now has allowed 8 in the L5 (7.77)… good matchup, but he’s no guarantee when the HRs are flying | |
| 18 | Drew Smyly | CHC | PHI | x | x | 82.2 | 3.38 | 1.22 | 12% | 12th | BB rate is up 2x to 11% in his L6 after a 5% in his first 9; still a team streamer everywhere, but doesn’t have to be started | ||
| 19 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | at | ATL | 21 | 6.86 | 1.48 | 19% | 1st | Nice return from the IL w/5 scoreless and 8 Ks at DET, but I’m out in for this matchup | |||
| 20 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | CIN | 92 | 4.30 | 1.34 | 10% | 4th | CIN hasn’t brought the fireworks to BAL yet, but I can’t get co-sign a Gibson start here | ||||
| 21 | Luke Weaver | CIN | at | BAL | 60.1 | 6.86 | 1.59 | 13% | 7th | Credit to one of my Twitch viewers pointing out how much Weaver struggles in the 1st w/19 of his 46 ER | |||
| 22 | Zach Davies | ARI | TBR | 35.2 | 7.82 | 1.82 | 7% | 10th | Hard pass | ||||
| 23 | Kolby Allard | ATL | MIN | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 21st | Getting a spot start after a pair of AAA outings that peaked at 62 pitches | ||||
| 24 | Trevor Richards | TOR | SFG | 35.2 | 3.53 | 1.15 | 25% | 6th | Has gotten a couple 3 IP opens | ||||
| 25 | Kyle Freeland | COL | LAD | 85.1 | 4.54 | 1.39 | 8% | 5th | #NeverCoors | ||||
| 26 | Austin Cox | KCR | CLE | 12.1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 21% | 9th | Sharp in a 3 2/3-inning follow at TBR but I’m still just watching, can’t imagine starting him anywhere | ||||
| 27 | Patrick Corbin | WSN | at | SEA | 89.2 | 5.32 | 1.61 | 7% | 7th | No thanks | |||
| 28 | Joey Wentz | DET | at | TEX | 67 | 6.72 | 1.58 | 11% | 1st | Absolutely not in this matchup | |||
| 29 | Michael Grove | LAD | at | COL | 32 | 7.59 | 1.53 | 15% | 16th | Has some general intrigue but no shot we take the gamble in Coors | |||
| 30 | Kaleb Ort | BOS | MIA | 18.2 | 5.79 | 1.55 | 14% | 11th | Bullpen game |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
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Braxton needs a writeup, whether it’s on Rotographs or Fangraphs. Dude is totally unsung behind last years Cy, young Eury Perez, and even Jesus Luzardo getting all the shine.
Where’s Bassit?
Reminder that the Marlins are not letting Garrett throw more than 90 pitches, usually pulling him right around 85 even if he’s pitching well. His last 8 starts going backward have been 88, 90, 82, 75, 79, 82, 76, 82 pitches even though he has a 2.00 ERA and .521 OPS against over that time.
You’re still starting him and if he keeps putting up 7 IP with 13 K on only 88 pitches you’re groovy. But don’t expect him to be able to work his way through 6 IP if he runs into any trouble. Heck, you can’t even count on him working through 6 if he’s pitching well. Over that 8 game span where he has a 2.00 ERA, he only has 3 QS and has been pulled 3 times in the middle of innings where he had given up 0 or 1 run total.
Great comment!
Well, Garrett was yanked after 66 pitches even though he had given up only 4 baserunners and 1 run in 5 IP. I don’t know that the deal is here but that’s a serious mark against Garrett if the Marlins aren’t going to let him throw even 70 pitches when he’s pitching well.
Corbin took this article personally.
Personally I’m starting German tonight – can just feel like it’s going to go well.
lololol… maaaybe!
Herman is a puzzle inside a puzzle. Can never figure out if he’s going to give up 5 runs …or pitch a perfect game!